Fantasy Rankings - Starting Pitchers

Jay LeBlanc The Washington Times - March 11, 2009, 12:01AM

Some so-called fantasy experts will tell you that taking starting pitchers early in your draft is too risky. Nonsense. A strong starting rotation is the foundation for fantasy success, and you’ll have a much easier time finding adequate bats than reliable hurlers later in your draft. Don’t focus too much on wins and ERA when drafting starters, because those stats are determined in part by factors pitchers can’t control. Concentrate instead on WHIP, K-to-walk ratio and durability. Expected run support and the home ballpark factor can’t be ignored, but they’re overrated.

1. Tim Lincecum, SF

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Lincecum captured the N.L. Cy Young award in his first full season by going 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 265 strikeouts. Concerns about his small stature and unorthodox delivery scared off nine teams on draft day 2006; learn from their mistake, don’t repeat it.

2. Johan Santana, NYM +

Santana is so good that he went 16-7 with a 2.53 ERA and 206 K’s and some considered it a down year. He’s been durable throughout his career, but his elbow troubles this year are cause for concern and the reason he’s not No. 1 on this list.

3. CC Sabathia, NYY

Sabathia was incredible down the stretch in 2008, going 9-2 with a 1.56 ERA after the break. But keep in mind that the Brewers did all they could to ruin his left arm, and that he’s never pitched under as much pressure as he will this year.

4. Roy Halladay, TOR

Halladay had his best year in 2008, winning 20 games for the second time and establishing a new career high with 206 K’s. He has a reputation for being injury prone, but they’ve mostly been of the freak variety so don’t be too concerned.

5. Cole Hamels, PHI

Hamels’ 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 196-to-53 K-to-walk ratio indicate that he deserved better than his 14-10 record in 2008. The tall and lanky lefty is still just 25 years old and has future Cy Young award winner written all over him.

6. Brandon Webb, ARI

Webb is the Tim Duncan of starting pitchers: he’s kind of dull, but quietly outstanding. He used his heavy sinker to induce ground ball after ground ball once again in 2008 and finished with a 22-7 record, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 183 K’s.

7. Dan Haren, ARI

Haren moved from the A.L. to the N.L. last season and had his best year yet, posting career highs in wins (16), K’s (206) and WHIP (1.13). He issued just 40 free passes last year and has made at least 33 starts in four consecutive seasons.

8. Jake Peavy, SD

Peavy had a down year in 2008, posting a 10-11 record in 27 starts. However, you know a pitcher is good when he has a 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 166-to-59 K-to-walk ratio in a down year. He has the potential to be the best starter in fantasy.

9. Cliff Lee, CLE

Lee captured the A.L. Cy Young award in 2008 with a 22-3 record, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 170-to-34 K-to-walk ratio. On the other hand, you have to be wary of a guy who’s capable of posting a 6.30 ERA in any season, which Lee did in 2007.

10. John Lackey, LAA

Lackey missed significant time for the first time last season as a triceps injury limited him to 24 starts. He showed no ill effects after returning in June, however, going 12-5 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 130-to-40 K-to-walk ratio.

11. Josh Beckett, BOS

Beckett had his finest year in 2007 but slumped in 2008, going 12-10 with a 4.03 ERA in 27 starts. His K-to-walk ratio (172-to-34) and WHIP (1.19) were outstanding, he’s just 28 and he’s backed by the Sox lineup, so expect a rebound.

12. Roy Oswalt, HOU

Oswalt is one of the safest bets among starters, having made at least 32 starts, pitched at least 208 2/3 innings, won 14 or more games and struck out 154 or more batters in each of the past five years. Expect more of the same in 2009.

13. Chad Billingsley, LA

Hopefully the broken leg Billingsley suffered slipping on ice this offseason won’t affect his progression toward becoming one of the better starters in baseball. He established career bests in wins (16), ERA (3.15) and strikeouts (201) in 2008.

14. A.J. Burnett, NYY

Burnett has long carried the injury-prone tag but made 34 starts in 2008. He set new career marks in wins (18) and K’s (231) but had an uncharacteristically high ERA (4.09) and WHIP (1.34). He’ll benefit from better run support in 2009.

15. Jon Lester, BOS

Lester looked like a future Cy Young award winner in his first full season, going 16-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 152 K’s. He’s backed by one of baseball’s best lineups and isn’t scared to pitch at Fenway (11-1, 2.49 ERA in 2008).

16. Edinson Volquez, CIN

The Reds got Volquez for Josh Hamilton in quite possibly the fairest trade ever and the young right-hander dazzled in his first full season, going 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 206 K’s. The walks (93) are a concern, but he’s still just 25.

17. James Shields, TB

Shields went 14-8 with a 3.56 ERA for the A.L. champs in 2008 and his 1.15 WHIP and 4-to-1 K-to-walk ratio (160 K’s, 40 walks) suggest he’s got 20-win potential. For now, you can count on him for 30-plus starts and 210-plus innings.

18. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS

Daisuke went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2008, but you can’t ignore the un-acelike WHIP (1.32) and K-to-walk ratio (154-to-94). He remains a good bet to eat innings and win a lot of games with backing from the potent Red Sox offense.

19. Francisco Liriano, MIN

Liriano returned after a one-year absence due to Tommy John surgery and showed flashes of his 2006 form by going 4-0 with a 1.23 in August. Add his 10-2 triple-A record to his 6-4 mark with the Twins, and 17 wins isn’t out of the question in 2009.

20. Yovani Gallardo, MIL

Gallardo entered 2008 as one of baseball’s best pitching prospects but lost most of his season to a knee injury. He was outstanding in limited duty, posting a 1.88 ERA and fanning 20 in 24 innings. Consider him an outstanding mid-round sleeper.

21. Scott Kazmir, TB

Kazmir’s stuff is as good as just about anyone’s, but wildness and the resulting high pitch counts lead to short outings and limit his fantasy effectiveness. He’s a good bet for around 15 wins, though, and could challenge for the league lead in K’s.

22. Felix Hernandez, SEA

King Felix’s obvious talent has yet to yield the results that fantasy players are hoping for, but he’s only 22. Expect 12 to 15 wins, an ERA around 3.50 and 175 to 200 strikeouts, and if this is the year he puts it together, you’ll get much, much more.

23. Carlos Zambrano, CHC

Big Z is a tough competitor and always a good bet for around 15 wins, but his K rate has steadily declined over the past several years and he walks too many batters to be a true ace. He’s a good guy to have on your staff; just don’t reach.

24. Adam Wainwright, STL

A middle finger sprain limited Wainwright to 20 starts in 2008 but he made the most of them, going 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Keep in mind that he doesn’t fan as many hitters as most other top-notch starters (91 K’s in 132 innings last year).

25. Zack Greinke, KC

Playing for the Royals has helped to mask the fact that Greinke is one of the better starters in baseball. The 25-year-old went 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA and 183 K’s last year and sizzled down the stretch, going 4-2 with a 1.84 ERA in his last seven starts.

26. Brett Myers, PHI

Myers made the transition back from closer to starter last year and was so bad in the first half (3-9, 5.84 ERA) that he was sent to the minors. He then reminded everyone how good he really is by going 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA after the All-Star break.

27. David Price, TB

This flame-throwing lefty went 12-1 with a 2.30 ERA during his tour of the minors last year, then posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP and K’d 12 in 14 big league innings. The sky’s the limit for Price, but he could start the year in the minors.

28. Ricky Nolasco, FLA

Nolasco surprised everyone by going 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 186-to-42 K-to-walk ratio in 2008. And while it would be a mistake to assume he’ll be able to repeat those numbers this year, you don’t pitch that well by mistake.

29. Ervin Santana, LAA +

Santana was plagued by inconsistency and almost incomprehensible road struggles his first two seasons. He put those troubles behind him in 2008 and went 16-7 with a 1.12 WHIP and 214 K’s, but his elbow issues are cause for concern.

30. John Danks, CHW

Danks took his lumps as a rookie in 2007 but clearly learned from it as he emerged as one of the A.L.’s better left-handed starters last year at 23. He went 12-9 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 159 strikeouts and should only get better.

31. Derek Lowe, ATL

Lowe has made 32 or more starts and won 12 or more games in seven straight years and can usually be counted on for a good ERA and WHIP. He doesn’t hurt himself with walks, either. He’s one of the safer bets among starters entering 2009.

32. Erik Bedard, SEA

Bedard was such a disappointment in his first year with the Mariners - 6-4, 3.67 ERA in 15 starts - that it’s easy to forget how dominant he was with the O’s in 2007. Here’s a refresher: 13-5, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 221 strikeouts in 182 innings.

33. Joba Chamberlain, NYY (RP)

If the Yankees just put Joba in the rotation and leave him there, he’ll probably be one of baseball’s better starters. The 2.65 ERA and 118 K’s - as opposed to just 39 walks - in 100 1/3 innings suggest that all the hype may in fact be justified.

34. Ryan Dempster, CHC

Dempter’s return to starting was a huge success, as he went 17-6 with a 2.97 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 187 K’s in 2008. His track record suggests you should expect a drop-off, but 75 percent of what he did last year would still make him quite valuable.

35. Ted Lilly, CHC

Maybe it’s because it took him so long to get going, but Lilly has quietly become one of the better left-handers in baseball. He followed up a solid 2007 campaign by going 17-9 with a 4.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 184-to-64 K-to-walk ratio last year.

36. Matt Garza, TB

Garza started to scratch the surface of his potential in 2008 by going 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He fanned a underwhelming 128 batters in 184 2/3 innings, but he’s just 25 and his minor league totals suggest there’s potential for more.

37. Gavin Floyd, CHW

Floyd had been a prospect for so long that most had given up on him by last spring, but he responded by going 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in his first full season. He fanned a somewhat underwhelming 145 batters in 206 innings, though.

38. Matt Cain, SF

Cain has good stuff but has managed just a 15-30 record over the past two seasons. Walks have played a role, as the 91 he issued in 217 2/3 innings contributed to a pedestrian 1.37 WHIP in 2008. The 186 K’s and 3.77 ERA are encouraging signs.

39. Javier Vazquez, ATL

Vazquez managed just a 12-16 record and 4.67 ERA in 2008 but K’d 200 batters in 208 innings while walking just 61. He usually approaches 200 K’s and has won 10-plus games in nine straight years. He should benefit from his move to the N.L.

40. Max Scherzer, ARI +

Scherzer has dominated in brief stops at every minor league level and more than held his own in 56 big league innings last season, posting a 3.05 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with an impressive 66 K’s. Shoulder woes this spring are a concern.

41. Jered Weaver, LAA +

Weaver has gone backward since debuting with an 11-2 mark and 2.56 ERA in 2006 and went just 11-10 with a 4.34 ERA last year. He did post a solid 1.29 WHIP and fan 152 batters in 176 2/3 innings and should take a step forward in 2009.

42. Gil Meche, KC

Everyone thought five years and $55 millon was too rich a deal for Meche, and everyone was wrong. He turned in a second straight solid season for the Royals in 2008, going 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 183 K’s in 210 1/3 innings.

43. Justin Verlander, DET

Verlander looked like one of baseball’s best young starters entering 2008, then went out and put up a massive clunker (11-17, 4.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). He was great in 2006 and 2007, though, and is only 26. Don’t reach, but he’s a solid sleeper.

44. Aaron Harang, CIN

After two straight 16-win seasons, Harang battled a sore arm in 2008 and slumped to a 6-17 record and 4.79 ERA. On the bright side, he posted a 3-to-1 K-to-walk ratio and had a 3.19 ERA in his last seven starts. He’s likely to bounce back.

45. Rich Harden, CHC +

You know the deal with Harden by now; when healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he’s rarely healthy. And before you gamble on him repeating his 2.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP last year, be aware that his shoulder is acting up again.

46. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY

Wang overcame underwhelming stuff to win 19 games in 2006 and 2007, and might have done so again last year if not for a foot injury that limited him to 15 starts. Backed by the Yankees’ stacked lineup, he’s a good bet for 15-plus wins if healthy.

47. Mike Pelfrey, NYM

Pelfrey settled in after an ugly start and ended up going 13-11 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his first full season in 2008. He doesn’t miss many bats (110 K’s in 200 2/3 innings) but should win a good number of games for a solid Mets team.

48. Scott Baker, MIN

Baker somehow flew under the radar last year despite an 11-4 record, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 141 strikeouts in 172 1/3 innings. He’s 27 and plays for a contender, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t pitch similarly well this season.

49. Josh Johnson, FLA

Johnson came back from Tommy John surgery last year and looked no worse for wear, going 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA and 77 K’s in 87 1/3 innings over 14 starts. The 6-foot-7 righty looks like a potential future ace and makes for a fine sleeper pick.

50. Kevin Slowey, MIN

Slowey was solid in his first full season, going 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA and 124 strikeouts in 160 1/3 innings over 27 starts. The 24-year-old displayed uncanny control, walking just 24 batters and posting an outstanding 1.16 WHIP as a result.

51. Clayton Kershaw, LA

Once Kershaw gets some experience, look out. The 20-year-old lefty held his own as a rookie, going 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 21 starts while fanning 100 in 107 2/3 innings. Like many young lefties, he’s a bit wild (52 walks, resulting in a 1.50 WHIP).

52. John Maine, NYM

Maine slumped in 2008 before missing the final month with shoulder issues. They’re not expected to linger, and he’s a decent bet to get back to his 2007 form (15-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 180 K’s). Support from the potent Mets lineup helps.

53. Andy Sonnanstine, TB

Sonnanstine went 13-9 with a 4.38 ERA in 2008 and is a good bet to improve upon - or at least replicate - those numbers. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (124 in 2008), but he doesn’t walk many, either (37), and pitches for the A.L. champs.

54. Jair Jurrjens, ATL

Jurrjens came over from Detroit in the Edgar Renteria deal and stepped right into the rotation. He held his own as a rookie, going 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 139 strikeouts. Expect similar numbers in 2009, and you might get more.

55. Brandon Morrow, SEA + (RP)

Morrow has the stuff to make a fantasy impact this year. His 3.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings in 2008 suggest he could be in for a breakout year if his spring forearm troubles don’t linger into the regular season.

56. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL

Jiminez walked an alarming 103 batters in 198 2/3 innings in 2008, but other than that, he enjoyed a fine rookie season. The 6-foot-4 righty went 12-12 with a 4.00 ERA and 172 strikeouts, and at 25, he’s only going to get better.

57. Oliver Perez, NYM

Sometimes Perez pitches like an ace; at other times, he’s a train wreck. Wildness is the primary culprit, as 105 walks led to a 1.40 WHIP for the lefty in 2008. He’s also good at missing bats, as evidenced by his 180 K’s in 194 innings last season.

58. Chris Young, SD

A skull fracture from a comebacker limited Young to just 18 starts last season. The imposing 6-foot-10 righty took a step backward from 2007, as his ERA rose from 3.12 to 3.97 and his WHIP from 1.10 to 1.29. He’s a good bet to bounce back.

59. Johnny Cueto, CIN

Cueto got knocked around a bit as a 22-year-old rookie in a hitters’ park, going 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He also flashed his potential by fanning 158 batters in 174 innings. Expect the flame-thrower to take a step forward in 2009.

60. Jeremy Guthrie, BAL

Guthrie pitched much better than his 10-12 record in 2008, posting an ace-like 1.23 WHIP and respectable 3.64 ERA. He fanned an underwhelming 120 batters in 190 2/3 innings, but all it would take is a little run support for him to win 15 games.

61. Randy Johnson, SF

Many wrote the future Hall of Famer off after he made just 10 starts in 2007, but he bounced back with a fine season in 2008 (11-10, 3.91 ERA, 173 K’s in 184 innings). He’s still nasty, but at 45, the wheels could come off at any time.

62. Manny Parra, MIL

Parra had a good first half in 2008 (8-2, 3.78 ERA) but crashed after the break (2-6, 5.32 ERA). Still just 26, the lefty has a solid minor league track record and K’d an impressive 147 batters in 166 innings last year. He’ll likely show improvement.

63. Mark Buehrle, CHW

Buehrle is a soft-tosser who doesn’t whiff that many batters, but he’s very reliable. The lefty has made at least 30 starts and won 10 or more games in each of the past eight years and has a career 1.27 WHIP. Expect more of the same in 2009.

64. Chris Carpenter, STL

The 2005 N.L. Cy Young award winner pitched well upon his return from Tommy John surgery last year, but quickly suffered a setback that resulted in offseason elbow surgery. He’s a huge injury risk, but could bring huge rewards.

65. Fausto Carmona, CLE

Carmona went 19-8 with a 3.07 ERA in 2007 but was a massive bust last year, posting an ugly 5.44 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Even worse, he fanned only 58 batters and walked 70. He’s likely to do better in 2009, but how much better? Care to gamble?

66. Koji Uehara, BAL

It’s always tough to guess how Japanese imports will adjust, but Uehara seems like a good bet. The soon-to-be 34-year-old righty twice won the equivalent of Japan’s Cy Young award and went 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in the 2006 World Baseball Classic.

67. Joe Saunders, LAA

Saunders got 30-plus starts for the first time in 2008 and made the most of his opportunity, going 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA. His low K-rate (103 in 193 innings last year) reduces his margin for error, but pitching for the contending Angels helps matters.

68. Bronson Arroyo, CIN

2008 marked the fourth straight year that Arroyo made 32 or more starts, and he established a new career high with 15 wins and fanned 163 batters in 200 innings. On the filp side, his 4.77 ERA and 1.44 WHIP were full-season career worsts.

69. Chris Volstad, FLA

Volstad more than held his own as a 21-year-old rookie in 2008, going 6-4 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts. The 6-foot-7 righty isn’t a strikeout artist - he K’d 52 in 84 1/3 innings last year - but could miss more bats with experience.

70. Hiroki Kuroda, LA

Kuroda more than held his own in his first year in the States, going 9-10 with a 3.73 ERA and an impressive 1.22 WHIP. He fanned just 116 hitters in 2008 but compensated by walking just 42 batters, and should show improvement in 2009.

71. Paul Maholm, PIT

Maholm took a big step forward in his third full season in 2008. The 26-year-old lefty finished with just a 9-9 record, but posted career bests in ERA (3.71), WHIP (1.28) and strikeouts (139). Hopefully he’ll continue his progression in 2009.

72. Andy Pettitte, NYY

Pettitte collapsed down the stretch last year and finished with a 14-14 record and 4.54 ERA. His shoulder is a concern but he still misses his fair share of bats (158 K’s in 204 innings) and pitches for the Yankees, so don’t write him off just yet.

73. Kelvim Escobar, LAA +

Escobar enjoyed his best year in 2007, going 18-7 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 160-to-66 K-to-walk ratio. He missed all of last season with shoulder troubles but hopes to be back on the mound by May. He’s a good injury-risk sleeper pick.

74. Jesse Litsch, TOR

Litsch had just 99 K’s in 176 innings last season, but the fact that he walked just 39 batters helped him post an impressive 1.23 WHIP, which in turn helped him go 13-9 with a 3.58 ERA. Litsch has little upside, but could be a late-round steal.

75. Aaron Cook, COL

Cook is basically an older Jesse Litsch. He had only 96 strikeouts in 211 1/3 innings last season, but walked only 48 batters en route to a career best 16-9 record. Cook’s a solid innings eater, but don’t expect another 16-win season.

76. Jonathan Sanchez, SF

Sanchez’s electric stuff resulted in 157 K’s in 158 innings, but his wildness led to 75 walks and a 1.45 WHIP. The 26-year-old has the talent to vastly improve on last year’s 9-12 record and 5.01 ERA, so keep him in mind in the late rounds.

77. Jordan Zimmermann, WAS

Zimmermann, a 2007 second-round pick, is 15-5 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 205-to-65 K-to-walk ratio in 35 minor league starts. He’s never pitched above double-A but has an advanced approach, and the Nats could definitely use him.

78. Kenshin Kawakami, ATL

Kawakami won the Japanese Central League MVP award in 2004 but was limited to 110 innings last season because of a back injury. The Braves have been good judges of talent in the past and have penciled him in as a starter, so take a flier.

79. Justin Masterson, BOS (RP)

Masterson would be ranked a lot higher if not for the possibility that he’ll be a set-up man once again in 2009. Though his K-to-walk ratio (68-to-40 in 2008) is a concern, his ERA (3.16) and WHIP (1.22) suggest he’d be a successful starter.

80. Kyle Lohse, STL

Lohse had a career year in 2008, going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA. However, his 4.67 career ERA, losing record in each of the four previous seasons and mere 119 K’s in 200 innings in 2008 suggest he’s not a good bet to repeat last year’s success.

81. Scott Olsen, WAS

Olsen had a good rookie season in 2006, stunk up the joint in 2007 and bounced back nicely in 2008 with an 8-11 record, 4.20 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The 25-year-old has talent, but the fact that his K-rate has declined every year isn’t a good sign.

82. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU +

The diminutive lefty posted career bests in ERA (3.54) and WHIP (1.31) in 2008, and K’d 131 batters while walking just 44 in 137 1/3 innings. On the flip side, he’s made 30 starts just once in his four seasons and has a 4.79 career ERA.

83. Armando Galarraga, DET

Galarraga kicked around the minors for years with mixed results before finally getting a shot last year. He made the most of it, goine 13-7 with a 3.73 ERA and sterling 1.19 WHIP. Don’t bet on him doing it again, but don’t rule it out, either.

84. John Smoltz, BOS +

Smoltz pitched into his 40s without showing any signs of slowing down - that is, until reconstructive shoulder surgery shut him down for the year in 2008. He may not make his Sox debut until June or so, but could be an impact arm thereafter.

85. Nick Blackburn, MIN

Blackburn’s terrific 2007 minor league campaign (10-4, 2.36 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) earned him a rotation spot last year. He didn’t set the world on fire, but 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA is useful. If you like K’s, look elsewhere (93 in 193 1/3 innings).

86. Joe Blanton, PHI

Blanton went just 9-12 with a 4.70 ERA in 2008 but had won 12 or more games the past three years. He went 4-0 after joining the eventual World Champs, and it will be interesting to see if the run support helps him more than the ballpark hurts him.

87. Dave Bush, MIL

Bush’s ERAs always seem too high for his WHIPs, and 2008 was no exception (1.14 WHIP, 4.18 ERA). He’s coming off one of his better years, and though his K-rate has steadily declined, it could just mean he’s learning how to pitch to contact.

88. Jeremy Bonderman, DET +

It wasn’t all that long ago that Bonderman was considered one of baseball’s better young starters, but he’s been held back by injuries of late. If - and that’s a big if - he can stay healthy, you could get 12 to 15 wins, 150 K’s and an ERA in the low 4.00s.

89. Dana Eveland, OAK

Eveland was solid if unspectacular in his first full season, going 9-9 with a 4.34 ERA. The 1.48 WHIP and 118-to-77 K-to-walk ratio are cause for concern, but his minor league numbers suggest the 25-year-old hasn’t peaked yet.

90. Vicente Padilla, TEX

Padilla’s peripherals are always ugly, but over the course of his career, he’s won 14 or more games every year in which he’s made 29 or more starts. He’ll also give you a decent number of strikeouts (127 in 171 innings in 2008) for a low-end option.

91. Jamie Moyer, PHI

Moyer’s going to be one heck of a pitching coach when he hangs ‘em up. The now 46-year-old used his mound savvy and low-80s heat to go 16-7 with a 3.72 ERA and 123 K’s last year. Expect some drop-off, but he’s a late-round bargain.

92. Justin Duchscherer, OAK +

Long-time reliever Duchscherer’s success in his first year as a starter caught more by surprise than it should have considering his 3.15 career ERA and 1.12 career WHIP. Chronic hip issues make him more of an injury risk sleeper, though.

93. Pedro Martinez

Pedro is in his late 30s now and no longer has the stuff that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball a few years back. Fortunately for him, he’s smart enough to get by with what he has left if he can stay health. Take a late flier.

94. Todd Wellemeyer, STL

Wellemeyer was an undistinguished middle reliever until Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan got ahold of him and then went 13-9 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 134 K’s in 2008. A repeat performance isn’t particularly likely, but it’s possible.

95. Sean Marshall, CHC (RP)

Marshall has pitched well enough in a swingman role the past two years to suggest he’d succeed as a starter, and he’s penciled in as the Cubs fifth starter. An optimistic projection is 12 wins, and ERA under 4.00 and a decent number of K’s.

96. Anthony Reyes, CLE (RP)

Reyes has been a much-heralded prospect for years but never could get it going in St. Louis. Cleveland is hoping all he needed is a change of scenery. He posted a 2.76 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 49 innings last year and is a good sleeper pick.

97. Dustin McGowan, TOR +

McGowan was a popular sleeper pick entering 2008 but went 6-7 with a 4.37 ERA before labrum surgery ended his season. He has a tear in his rotator cuff that apparently doesn’t need surgery, but it’s still a concern. He’s an injury-risk sleeper.

98. Jon Garland, ARI

Garland’s very hittable, but is also savvy enough to have won 10-plus games in seven straight seasons, including 18 twice. He had full-season career worsts in ERA (4.91) and WHIP (1.51) in 2008, but the move to the N.L. should help.

99. Ian Snell, PIT

Snell took a big step forward in 2007 (3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 177 K’s, 68 walks) and a giant leap backward in 2008 (5.43 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 135 K’s, 89 walks). He’s only 27 and finished strong (3.79 ERA in his last seven starts), so take a flier.

100. Rich Hill, BAL +

Hill couldn’t find the plate last spring and was quickly banished to the minors, but he was one of baseball’s better left-handed starters in 2007 (11-8, 3.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 183-to-63 K-to-walk ratio). Perhaps the change in scenery will help.

THE BEST OF THE REST

101. Glen Perkins, MIN
102. Anibal Sanchez, FLA
103. John Lannan, WAS
104. Greg Smith, COL
105. Tim Wakefield, BOS
106. Edwin Jackson, DET
107. Bartolo Colon, CHW +
108. Randy Wolf, LA
109. Brad Penny, BOS +
110. J.A. Happ, PHI
111. Homer Bailey, CIN
112. Barry Zito, SF
113. Kyle Davies, KC
114. Gio Gonzalez, OAK
115. Franklin Morales, COL
116. Sean Gallagher, OAK
117. Micah Owings, CIN
118. Clay Buchholz, BOS
119. Phil Hughes, NYY
120. Brandon McCarthy, TEX
121. Dallas Braden, OAK
122. Luke Hochevar, KC
123. Carl Pavano, CLE
124. Yusmeiro Petit, ARI (RP)
125. Ryan Rowland-Smith, SEA (RP)
126. Matt Harrison, TEX
127. Aaron Laffey, CLE
128. Doug Davis, ARI
129. Kevin Millwood, TEX
130. Joel Pineiro, STL
131. Jason Marquis, COL
132. Jeff Niemann, TB
133. Jonathon Niese, NYM
134. Andrew Miller, FLA
135. Scott Richmond, TOR
136. Jason Schmidt, LA
137. Braden Looper, MIL +
138. Jorge Campillo, ATL
139. Tom Glavine, ATL +
140. Jarrod Washburn, SEA
141. Jeff Suppan, MIL
142. James McDonald, LA
143. Michael Bowden, BOS
144. David Purcey, TOR
145. Josh Outman, OAK
146. Jose Contreras, CHW +
147. Edgar Gonzalez, OAK
148. Clayton Richard, CHW
149. Tom Gorzelanny, PIT
150. Carlos Villanueva, MIL (RP)
151. Scott Lewis, CLE
152. Radhames Liz, BAL
153. Jorge De La Rosa, COL
154. Mike Hampton, HOU
155. Shairon Martis, WAS
156. Jeff Karstens, PIT
157. Jason Bergmann, WAS
158. Tim Redding, NYM
159. Cha Seung Baek, SD (RP)
160. Josh Geer, SD
161. Chad Gaudin, CHC (RP)
162. Zach Duke, PIT
163. Troy Patton, BAL
164. Garrett Olson, SEA
165. Jo-Jo Reyes, ATL
166. Noah Lowry, SF +
167. Ian Kennedy, NYY
168. Scott Feldman, TEX
169. Daniel Cabrera, WAS
170. Brian Bannister, KC
171. Freddy Garcia, NYM
172. Ben Sheets +
173. Nick Adenhart, LAA
174. Brian Moehler, HOU
175. Kevin Correia, SD
176. Ryan Tucker, FLA
177. Tim Hudson, ATL +
178. Kyle Kendrick, PHI
179. Dustin Moseley, LAA
180. Zach Jackson, CLE
181. Chad Reineke, SD
182. Phil Dumatrait, PIT +
183. Mark Hendrickson, BAL (RP)
184. Kason Gabbard, TEX +
185. Boof Bonser, MIN + (RP)
186. Collin Balester, WAS
187. Jeremy Sowers, CLE
188. Chris Sampson, HOU + (RP)
189. Josh Banks, SD
190. Nate Robertson, DET
191. Odalis Perez
192. Chan Ho Park, PHI (RP)
193. Greg Reynolds, COL
194. Wade LeBlanc, SD
195. Alfredo Aceves, NYY
196. Mitchell Boggs, STL +
197. Tyler Clippard, WAS
198. Livan Hernandez, NYM
199. Zach Miner, DET (RP)
200. Shawn Hill, WAS +
201. Seth McClung, MIL (RP)
202. Ramon A. Ramirez, CIN
203. Dontrelle Willis, DET
204. Ross Detwiler, WAS
205. Mark Prior, SD +
206. Hayden Penn, BAL
207. Paul Byrd
208. Felipe Paulino, HOU
209. Jason Hirsh, COL
210. Chris Waters, BAL
211. Brandon Backe, HOU +
212. Julian Tavarez, ATL (RP)
213. Brad Thompson, STL (RP)
214. Matt Clement, TOR
215. Rodrigo Lopez, PHI
216. Jake Westbrook, CLE +
217. Horacio Ramirez, KC (RP)
218. Matt Belisle, CIN +
219. Carlos Silva, SEA
220. Chris Capuano, MIL +

PROSPECTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON

1. Brett Cecil, TOR
2. Tommy Hanson, ATL
3. Aaron Poreda, CHW
4. David Huff, CLE
5. Jess Todd, STL
6. Carlos Carrasco, PHI
7. Adam Miller, CLE +
8. Brad Bergesen, BAL
9. Brett Anderson, OAK
10. Trevor Cahill, OAK
11. Wade Davis, TB
12. David Hernandez, BAL
13. Derek Holland, TEX
14. Neftali Feliz, TEX
15. Vin Mazzaro, OAK
16. Kevin Mulvey, MIN
17. Antonio Bastardo, PHI
18. Jeff Marquez, CHW
19. Junichi Tazawa, BOS
20. Jeremy Hellickson, TB
21. Rick Porcello, DET
22. Madison Bumgarner, SF
23. Jhoulys Chacin, COL
24. James Simmons, OAK
25. Jake Arrieta, BAL
26. Tim Alderson, SF
27. Brian Matusz, BAL
28. Josh Lindblom, LA
29. Daniel Cortes, KC
30. Cesar Valdez, ARI

FANTASY PREVIEW SCHEDULE

Monday, Feb. 23 - Intro & Catchers
Wednesday, Feb. 25 - First Basemen
Friday, Feb. 27 - Second Basemen
Monday, March 2 - Third Basemen
Wednesday, March 4 - Shortstops
Friday, March 6 - Outfielders
Monday, March 9 - DH-only
Wednesday, March 11 - Starting Pitchers
Friday, March 13 - Relief Pitchers