Slowey was solid in his first full season, going 12-11 with a 3.99 ERA and 124 strikeouts in 160 1/3 innings over 27 starts. The 24-year-old displayed uncanny control, walking just 24 batters and posting an outstanding 1.16 WHIP as a result.
51. Clayton Kershaw, LA
Once Kershaw gets some experience, look out. The 20-year-old lefty held his own as a rookie, going 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 21 starts while fanning 100 in 107 2/3 innings. Like many young lefties, he’s a bit wild (52 walks, resulting in a 1.50 WHIP).
52. John Maine, NYM
Maine slumped in 2008 before missing the final month with shoulder issues. They’re not expected to linger, and he’s a decent bet to get back to his 2007 form (15-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 180 K’s). Support from the potent Mets lineup helps.
53. Andy Sonnanstine, TB
Sonnanstine went 13-9 with a 4.38 ERA in 2008 and is a good bet to improve upon - or at least replicate - those numbers. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (124 in 2008), but he doesn’t walk many, either (37), and pitches for the A.L. champs.
54. Jair Jurrjens, ATL
Jurrjens came over from Detroit in the Edgar Renteria deal and stepped right into the rotation. He held his own as a rookie, going 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 139 strikeouts. Expect similar numbers in 2009, and you might get more.
55. Brandon Morrow, SEA + (RP)
Morrow has the stuff to make a fantasy impact this year. His 3.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 75 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings in 2008 suggest he could be in for a breakout year if his spring forearm troubles don’t linger into the regular season.
56. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
Jiminez walked an alarming 103 batters in 198 2/3 innings in 2008, but other than that, he enjoyed a fine rookie season. The 6-foot-4 righty went 12-12 with a 4.00 ERA and 172 strikeouts, and at 25, he’s only going to get better.
57. Oliver Perez, NYM
Sometimes Perez pitches like an ace; at other times, he’s a train wreck. Wildness is the primary culprit, as 105 walks led to a 1.40 WHIP for the lefty in 2008. He’s also good at missing bats, as evidenced by his 180 K’s in 194 innings last season.
58. Chris Young, SD
A skull fracture from a comebacker limited Young to just 18 starts last season. The imposing 6-foot-10 righty took a step backward from 2007, as his ERA rose from 3.12 to 3.97 and his WHIP from 1.10 to 1.29. He’s a good bet to bounce back.
59. Johnny Cueto, CIN
Cueto got knocked around a bit as a 22-year-old rookie in a hitters’ park, going 9-14 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He also flashed his potential by fanning 158 batters in 174 innings. Expect the flame-thrower to take a step forward in 2009.
60. Jeremy Guthrie, BAL
Guthrie pitched much better than his 10-12 record in 2008, posting an ace-like 1.23 WHIP and respectable 3.64 ERA. He fanned an underwhelming 120 batters in 190 2/3 innings, but all it would take is a little run support for him to win 15 games.
61. Randy Johnson, SF
Many wrote the future Hall of Famer off after he made just 10 starts in 2007, but he bounced back with a fine season in 2008 (11-10, 3.91 ERA, 173 K’s in 184 innings). He’s still nasty, but at 45, the wheels could come off at any time.
62. Manny Parra, MIL
Parra had a good first half in 2008 (8-2, 3.78 ERA) but crashed after the break (2-6, 5.32 ERA). Still just 26, the lefty has a solid minor league track record and K’d an impressive 147 batters in 166 innings last year. He’ll likely show improvement.
63. Mark Buehrle, CHW
Buehrle is a soft-tosser who doesn’t whiff that many batters, but he’s very reliable. The lefty has made at least 30 starts and won 10 or more games in each of the past eight years and has a career 1.27 WHIP. Expect more of the same in 2009.
64. Chris Carpenter, STL
The 2005 N.L. Cy Young award winner pitched well upon his return from Tommy John surgery last year, but quickly suffered a setback that resulted in offseason elbow surgery. He’s a huge injury risk, but could bring huge rewards.
65. Fausto Carmona, CLE
Carmona went 19-8 with a 3.07 ERA in 2007 but was a massive bust last year, posting an ugly 5.44 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Even worse, he fanned only 58 batters and walked 70. He’s likely to do better in 2009, but how much better? Care to gamble?
66. Koji Uehara, BAL
It’s always tough to guess how Japanese imports will adjust, but Uehara seems like a good bet. The soon-to-be 34-year-old righty twice won the equivalent of Japan’s Cy Young award and went 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in the 2006 World Baseball Classic.
67. Joe Saunders, LAA
Saunders got 30-plus starts for the first time in 2008 and made the most of his opportunity, going 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA. His low K-rate (103 in 193 innings last year) reduces his margin for error, but pitching for the contending Angels helps matters.
68. Bronson Arroyo, CIN
2008 marked the fourth straight year that Arroyo made 32 or more starts, and he established a new career high with 15 wins and fanned 163 batters in 200 innings. On the filp side, his 4.77 ERA and 1.44 WHIP were full-season career worsts.
69. Chris Volstad, FLA
Volstad more than held his own as a 21-year-old rookie in 2008, going 6-4 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts. The 6-foot-7 righty isn’t a strikeout artist - he K’d 52 in 84 1/3 innings last year - but could miss more bats with experience.
70. Hiroki Kuroda, LA
Kuroda more than held his own in his first year in the States, going 9-10 with a 3.73 ERA and an impressive 1.22 WHIP. He fanned just 116 hitters in 2008 but compensated by walking just 42 batters, and should show improvement in 2009.
71. Paul Maholm, PIT
Maholm took a big step forward in his third full season in 2008. The 26-year-old lefty finished with just a 9-9 record, but posted career bests in ERA (3.71), WHIP (1.28) and strikeouts (139). Hopefully he’ll continue his progression in 2009.
72. Andy Pettitte, NYY
Pettitte collapsed down the stretch last year and finished with a 14-14 record and 4.54 ERA. His shoulder is a concern but he still misses his fair share of bats (158 K’s in 204 innings) and pitches for the Yankees, so don’t write him off just yet.
73. Kelvim Escobar, LAA +
Escobar enjoyed his best year in 2007, going 18-7 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 160-to-66 K-to-walk ratio. He missed all of last season with shoulder troubles but hopes to be back on the mound by May. He’s a good injury-risk sleeper pick.
74. Jesse Litsch, TOR
Litsch had just 99 K’s in 176 innings last season, but the fact that he walked just 39 batters helped him post an impressive 1.23 WHIP, which in turn helped him go 13-9 with a 3.58 ERA. Litsch has little upside, but could be a late-round steal.
75. Aaron Cook, COL
Cook is basically an older Jesse Litsch. He had only 96 strikeouts in 211 1/3 innings last season, but walked only 48 batters en route to a career best 16-9 record. Cook’s a solid innings eater, but don’t expect another 16-win season.
76. Jonathan Sanchez, SF
Sanchez’s electric stuff resulted in 157 K’s in 158 innings, but his wildness led to 75 walks and a 1.45 WHIP. The 26-year-old has the talent to vastly improve on last year’s 9-12 record and 5.01 ERA, so keep him in mind in the late rounds.
77. Jordan Zimmermann, WAS
Zimmermann, a 2007 second-round pick, is 15-5 with a 2.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 205-to-65 K-to-walk ratio in 35 minor league starts. He’s never pitched above double-A but has an advanced approach, and the Nats could definitely use him.
78. Kenshin Kawakami, ATL
Kawakami won the Japanese Central League MVP award in 2004 but was limited to 110 innings last season because of a back injury. The Braves have been good judges of talent in the past and have penciled him in as a starter, so take a flier.
79. Justin Masterson, BOS (RP)
Masterson would be ranked a lot higher if not for the possibility that he’ll be a set-up man once again in 2009. Though his K-to-walk ratio (68-to-40 in 2008) is a concern, his ERA (3.16) and WHIP (1.22) suggest he’d be a successful starter.
80. Kyle Lohse, STL
Lohse had a career year in 2008, going 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA. However, his 4.67 career ERA, losing record in each of the four previous seasons and mere 119 K’s in 200 innings in 2008 suggest he’s not a good bet to repeat last year’s success.
81. Scott Olsen, WAS
Olsen had a good rookie season in 2006, stunk up the joint in 2007 and bounced back nicely in 2008 with an 8-11 record, 4.20 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. The 25-year-old has talent, but the fact that his K-rate has declined every year isn’t a good sign.
82. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU +
The diminutive lefty posted career bests in ERA (3.54) and WHIP (1.31) in 2008, and K’d 131 batters while walking just 44 in 137 1/3 innings. On the flip side, he’s made 30 starts just once in his four seasons and has a 4.79 career ERA.
83. Armando Galarraga, DET
Galarraga kicked around the minors for years with mixed results before finally getting a shot last year. He made the most of it, goine 13-7 with a 3.73 ERA and sterling 1.19 WHIP. Don’t bet on him doing it again, but don’t rule it out, either.
84. John Smoltz, BOS +
Smoltz pitched into his 40s without showing any signs of slowing down - that is, until reconstructive shoulder surgery shut him down for the year in 2008. He may not make his Sox debut until June or so, but could be an impact arm thereafter.
85. Nick Blackburn, MIN
Blackburn’s terrific 2007 minor league campaign (10-4, 2.36 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) earned him a rotation spot last year. He didn’t set the world on fire, but 11-11 with a 4.05 ERA is useful. If you like K’s, look elsewhere (93 in 193 1/3 innings).
86. Joe Blanton, PHI
Blanton went just 9-12 with a 4.70 ERA in 2008 but had won 12 or more games the past three years. He went 4-0 after joining the eventual World Champs, and it will be interesting to see if the run support helps him more than the ballpark hurts him.
87. Dave Bush, MIL
Bush’s ERAs always seem too high for his WHIPs, and 2008 was no exception (1.14 WHIP, 4.18 ERA). He’s coming off one of his better years, and though his K-rate has steadily declined, it could just mean he’s learning how to pitch to contact.
88. Jeremy Bonderman, DET +
It wasn’t all that long ago that Bonderman was considered one of baseball’s better young starters, but he’s been held back by injuries of late. If - and that’s a big if - he can stay healthy, you could get 12 to 15 wins, 150 K’s and an ERA in the low 4.00s.
89. Dana Eveland, OAK
Eveland was solid if unspectacular in his first full season, going 9-9 with a 4.34 ERA. The 1.48 WHIP and 118-to-77 K-to-walk ratio are cause for concern, but his minor league numbers suggest the 25-year-old hasn’t peaked yet.
90. Vicente Padilla, TEX
Padilla’s peripherals are always ugly, but over the course of his career, he’s won 14 or more games every year in which he’s made 29 or more starts. He’ll also give you a decent number of strikeouts (127 in 171 innings in 2008) for a low-end option.
91. Jamie Moyer, PHI
Moyer’s going to be one heck of a pitching coach when he hangs ‘em up. The now 46-year-old used his mound savvy and low-80s heat to go 16-7 with a 3.72 ERA and 123 K’s last year. Expect some drop-off, but he’s a late-round bargain.
92. Justin Duchscherer, OAK +
Long-time reliever Duchscherer’s success in his first year as a starter caught more by surprise than it should have considering his 3.15 career ERA and 1.12 career WHIP. Chronic hip issues make him more of an injury risk sleeper, though.
93. Pedro Martinez
Pedro is in his late 30s now and no longer has the stuff that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball a few years back. Fortunately for him, he’s smart enough to get by with what he has left if he can stay health. Take a late flier.
94. Todd Wellemeyer, STL
Wellemeyer was an undistinguished middle reliever until Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan got ahold of him and then went 13-9 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 134 K’s in 2008. A repeat performance isn’t particularly likely, but it’s possible.
95. Sean Marshall, CHC (RP)
Marshall has pitched well enough in a swingman role the past two years to suggest he’d succeed as a starter, and he’s penciled in as the Cubs fifth starter. An optimistic projection is 12 wins, and ERA under 4.00 and a decent number of K’s.
96. Anthony Reyes, CLE (RP)
Reyes has been a much-heralded prospect for years but never could get it going in St. Louis. Cleveland is hoping all he needed is a change of scenery. He posted a 2.76 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 49 innings last year and is a good sleeper pick.
97. Dustin McGowan, TOR +
McGowan was a popular sleeper pick entering 2008 but went 6-7 with a 4.37 ERA before labrum surgery ended his season. He has a tear in his rotator cuff that apparently doesn’t need surgery, but it’s still a concern. He’s an injury-risk sleeper.
98. Jon Garland, ARI
Garland’s very hittable, but is also savvy enough to have won 10-plus games in seven straight seasons, including 18 twice. He had full-season career worsts in ERA (4.91) and WHIP (1.51) in 2008, but the move to the N.L. should help.
99. Ian Snell, PIT
Snell took a big step forward in 2007 (3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 177 K’s, 68 walks) and a giant leap backward in 2008 (5.43 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 135 K’s, 89 walks). He’s only 27 and finished strong (3.79 ERA in his last seven starts), so take a flier.
100. Rich Hill, BAL +
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