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Welcome to Threat Status. Share it with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor

GOP front-runner Donald Trump just sparked unease in South Korea with comments about the status of U.S. forces based there.

…Secretary of State Antony Blinken says on a stop in Israel that “the time is now” for a cease-fire prisoner release deal.

…A U.S. intelligence source says Russian President Vladimir Putin likely didn’t order the death of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny in February.

…A new think tank report claims BlackRock is investing millions in Chinese military-linked companies sanctioned by Washington.

…The U.N. says a spike in Russian attacks killed more than 600 Ukrainian civilians in March.

BlackRock accused of partially underwriting China's nuclear buildup

The New York Stock Exchange is shown on Tuesday, March 19, 2024, in New York. Stocks are opening lower as some of Wall Street's mania around artificial-intelligence technology cools. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan)

BlackRock, a major Wall Street firm, is investing millions of dollars in an estimated 30 Chinese military-linked companies currently sanctioned by the U.S. government, according to a think tank report prepared for Congress.

Additionally, BlackRock, which manages retirement assets for millions of Americans, has invested in companies working on China’s large-scale nuclear weapons buildup, states the report by the Coalition for a Prosperous America.

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz takes a detailed look at the report, which says that despite adopting a corporate policy supporting responsible “environmental, social and governance” policies, BlackRock has invested nearly $50 million in Chinese companies sanctioned under the 2022 Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act.

Christopher Berger, a spokesman for BlackRock, which reports managing $10 trillion in assets, had no immediate comment on the report, which also claims that MSCI, the world’s foremost index provider, is deeply involved in the “Wall Street-Beijing merger.”

Some say China’s fearsome PLA may never fight

In this image made from video provided by the Philippine Coast Guard, Philippine Coast Guard vessel, BRP BAGACAY (MRRV-4410) is water cannoned by Chinese Coast Guards as it tried to approach the waters near Scarborough Shoal locally known as Bajo De Masinloc at the South China Sea on Tuesday April 30, 2024. (Philippine Coast Guard via AP)

China’s defense spending increases and expanding military capabilities anchored around a string of new bases and outposts across the South China Sea are a source of growing alarm in Washington over the communist regime’s military ambitions in the not-too-distant future.

But there is debate over the extent to which China is truly preparing for war, given that Beijing has largely avoided direct warfare in recent decades and adopted a military strategy of creeping advances, gray-zone operations and de-escalation of conflicts that do flare up. Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon examines the debate, reporting that cautious tactics, combined with apparent risk aversion in the Chinese Communist Party, reliance on global trade and worrying demographic trends, suggest the People’s Liberation Army may never offer battle.

Alexander Neill, a PLA watcher with the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum, tells Mr. Salmon that China is not traditionally a warrior society. “The phrase ‘Serving in the military is no good’ …was very resonant from an early period in China,” says Mr. Neill. “It’s different to the warlike culture of Russia, with its Cossack tradition, and the West, where the military was respectable.”

It’s a view that contrasts sharply with the statements from U.S. military leaders, including Adm. John C. Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, who said in March that “all indications point to the PLA meeting President Xi Jinping’s directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.”

Austin Tice's mother says he’s still alive in Syria

Marc and Debra Tice, the parents of Austin Tice, who is missing in Syria, speak during a press conference, at the Press Club, in Beirut, Lebanon, Dec. 4, 2018. The Syrian Foreign Ministry denied on Wednesday, Aug. 17, 2022, that it is holding U.S. journalist Tice or other Americans after President Joe Biden accused the Syrian government of detaining him. Tice went missing shortly after his 31st birthday on Aug. 14, 2012, at a checkpoint in a contested area west of the capital Damascus. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein, File)

The mother of American journalist Austin Tice told a congressional panel on Tuesday that she is convinced her son is still alive, nearly 12 years after he was abducted in Syria at a checkpoint in a contested area west of Damascus.

Debra Tice told members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee during a roundtable discussion that was broadcast online on Tuesday that her information about her son’s status isn’t “just wishful mom talk.”

“Austin is alive and no doubt eager to walk free,” she said. “It would not be prudent for me to share the source.”

Mr. Tice, an award-winning journalist and former U.S. Marine Corps officer, was among eight Americans detained abroad who were represented on the panel by family members or supporters at the special congressional event Tuesday. At least 50 Americans are believed to be held hostage by hostile governments such as Syria and Russia.

More than 600 Ukrainian civilians killed or injured in March

In this photo provided by the Mayor of Odesa Hennadii Trukhanov in Telegram, firefighters work on the site of a burning building after a Russian drone attack in Odesa, Ukraine, Tuesday, April 23, 2024. (Mayor of Odesa Hennadii Trukhanov via AP)

Russian missile and drone strikes led to a 20% spike in Ukrainian civilian casualties in March compared to the previous month, according to the U.N. Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, which has verified that at least 604 civilians were killed or injured throughout Ukraine during the month.

“At least 57 children were killed or injured in March, doubling the number from February,” the U.N. monitors said. “These casualties resulted particularly from the increased use of guided and unguided aerial bombs.”

Large-scale coordinated attacks from Russia also destroyed or damaged at least 20 energy facilities throughout Ukraine. The ongoing Russian offensive has unfolded as Washington moved, after months of delay, to authorize more than $60 billion in fresh U.S. military aid for Ukrainian forces — funding President Biden says will “keep them in the fight” against Russia.

On the border: Biden’s secret list of airports for illegal immigrants

Vehicles pass the entrance to Miami International Airport in Miami Tuesday, May 12, 2020. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee, File)

The House Homeland Security Committee has published the list of airports involved in Mr. Biden’s migrant airlift, which is helping hundreds of thousands of unauthorized migrants skip over the border and fly directly into American communities.

The Washington Times’ Stephen Dinan reports that Florida airports top the list, with Miami and Fort Lauderdale receiving more than 150,000 arrivals between January and August of last year. New York was third, Houston fourth and another Florida location, Orlando, fifth.

Opinion front: China’s election disinformation operations

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People, Friday, April 26, 2024, in Beijing, China. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Pool)

Russia tried to spread disinformation on social media during the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential campaigns to polarize the electorate, create distrust and paralyze the electoral process, writes Threat Status contributor Joseph R. DeTrani, who homes in on how China is now engaging in such operations, as well as cyberattacks, ahead of this year’s election.

“In March, the U.S. intelligence community publicly assessed that Russia, China and Iran are capable of and willing to launch cyberattacks seeking to disrupt our presidential election come November,” writes Mr. DeTrani, a former associate director of National intelligence.

“Interfering in our — or any country’s — election should be a bright red line that no country dares to cross,” he writes, adding that the issue should be a focus of discussion at the coming G7 leaders summit slated for mid-June in Italy.

Events on our radar

• May 1 — The Hill & Valley Forum 2024: Bridging National Security and Frontier Technologies, Hill & Valley.

• May 2 — The Lithium Triangle: To Be or Not to Be Successful, Wilson Center.

• May 2 — Stress Test: The Toll of the War in Ukraine on the Kremlin, American Enterprise Institute.

• May 3 — A new charm offensive? Unpacking Xi’s visit to Europe, Atlantic Council.

• May 3 — After the Vote: Navigating USMCA Trade & Investment in Mexico, Wilson Center.

• May 6 — Launch of Chinese Handcuffs: How China Hijacked the Environmental Agenda, The Heritage Foundation.

• May 9 — The Erosion of Hong Kong’s Autonomy Since 2020: Implications for the United States, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.