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Threat Status is daily: Share it with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

China’s Communist Party is targeting a top Chinese scientist who warned officials in Beijing about COVID-19 before the virus spread.

…President Biden has a new memorandum to protect critical American infrastructure in the face of growing threats posed by China, Russia and other U.S. adversaries.

…Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vows to invade Rafah “with or without” a cease-fire deal, while the Israel Defense Forces say humanitarian aid entering Gaza will “significantly increase” over the coming days.

…Serbia’s new government will include a former intelligence chief who fostered close ties with Russia and is sanctioned by Washington.

…The Taliban are trying to woo tourists to Afghanistan, and questions are swirling over whether Elon Musk could buy TikTok.

Biden seeks to counter China, Russia threats to U.S. infrastructure

Water flows through the Dalles Dam in the Columbia River, in Dalles, Ore, on June 3, 2011. Restoring salmon and steelhead populations is expensive because they’re widespread and hemmed in by massive hydroelectric dams. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)

Mr. Biden signed a national security memorandum on Tuesday laying out an updated, government-wide plan to protect critical American infrastructure in the face of growing threats posed by China, Russia and other U.S. adversaries.

The memorandum focuses specifically on countering threats to federal government agencies and private operators who manage communications equipment, transportation, water systems, dams and other vital systems.

The updated federal strategy follows multiple high-profile attacks on infrastructure sectors by U.S. enemies. Such attacks seem likely to continue. FBI Director Christopher A. Wray warned earlier this month that American adversaries, China in particular, intend to “land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic and break America’s will to resist” should a confrontation break out.

“The threat environment has changed significantly” since the last government-wide infrastructure memorandum was issued in 2013 by President Obama, one senior administration official told reporters on a background conference call.

NATO won’t make Ukraine a member this summer

United States Permanent Representative to NATO, Julianne Smith, takes her seat during a meeting of the North Atlantic Council in defense ministers session at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith doesn’t expect the alliance to offer membership to Ukraine during its 75th anniversary summit in Washington in July, but she says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy won’t go away empty-handed.

NATO’s 32 member nations are working on some kind of “actual deliverable” that will demonstrate the alliance’s commitment to ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty in the face of Russia’s invasion, Ms. Smith said at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council on Monday.

Ukraine has made no secret of its hopes one day to become a NATO member. Last year, NATO formally said Ukraine’s future lies with the alliance. Ms. Smith said she’s “expecting allies to construct a bridge to membership by offering Ukraine a ‘deliverable’ that will enable them to become closer to the alliance.”

Would China approve Elon Musk to buy TikTok?

FILE - Elon Musk arrives at an event in Los Angeles, April 13, 2024. Shares of Tesla stock rallied Monday, April 29, 2024, after Musk, the electric vehicle maker's CEO, paid a surprise visit to Beijing over the weekend and reportedly won tentative approval for its driving software. (Photo by Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP, File)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s surprise visit to Beijing over the weekend yielded major results, with the electric vehicle maker reportedly getting clearance from Chinese officials to launch its “Full Self-Driving,” or FSD,” software feature in China.

Mr. Musk has faced hurdles in getting the FSD software, which still requires human supervision, launched in the United States. Tesla recalled its Autopilot driving system last year and the U.S. government’s auto safety agency has said it is investigating whether the recall did enough to make sure drivers pay attention to the road. Tesla has reported 20 more crashes involving Autopilot since the recall, according to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Threat Status is tracking Tesla’s pursuit of deals in China within the context of ongoing U.S.-China friction on a range of fronts, including the fate of social media giant TikTok.

Washington has passed legislation forcing TikTok’s China-based parent company ByteDance to sell TikTok or face a ban in the United States. It’s unclear who might purchase TikTok, given that China’s government says it won’t allow a sale. The question now is whether Mr. Musk, who in 2022 acquired the American social media giant Twitter — now called “X” — could be a potential buyer.

Mr. Musk wrote on X earlier this month that “TikTok should not be banned in the USA, even though such a ban may benefit the X platform.”

“Doing so would be contrary to freedom of speech and expression. It is not what America stands for,” he wrote.

Britain’s Sunak takes flak over Rwanda migration

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during a press conference at Downing Street in London, Monday, April 22, 2024. Sunak pledged Monday that the country's first deportation flights to Rwanda could leave in 10-12 weeks as he promised to end the Parliamentary deadlock over a key policy promise before an election expected later this year. Both the U.N. refugee agency and the Council of Europe on Tuesday called for the U.K. to rethink its plans because of concerns that the legislation undermines human rights protections and fears that it will damage international cooperation on tackling the global migrant crisis. (Toby Melville/Pool Photo via AP) **FILE**

The plan of Britain’s ruling Conservative Party to ship illegal immigrants to the East African nation of Rwanda passed a major political hurdle last week, but has now created a blow-up in relations between Britain and Ireland.

Some 121,489 illegal immigrants have crossed the English Channel since 2018 and while Britain says it will pay Rwanda to accept migrants, many are now escaping to Ireland, a European Union member nation, which says it plans to send them back to Britain.

The situation is creating major headaches for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, whose office says the U.K. won’t be taking the migrants back from Ireland. Threat Status is tracking the developments closely, given that illegal immigration is an emotional issue for British voters, particularly those comprising Mr. Sunak’s Conservative Party base.

After 13 years in power in Westminster, the Conservatives must call a general election by January. The latest series of polls finds Mr. Sunak facing a negative rating from two-thirds of the electorate. 

Opinion front: A direct Israel-Iran war ‘inevitable’

Israel missiles targeting Iran illustration by Greg Groesch / The Washington Times

For all its effectiveness, Israel’s recent strike in Iran will only deter Tehran temporarily, argues columnist Jed Babbin, who asserts that “Iran’s ayatollahs can’t be deterred indefinitely because they believe — as does the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, their principal terrorist arm — that they have a religious obligation to destroy Israel.”

“That means the Iran-Israel war will continue indefinitely and change both sides’ strategies and tactics,” according to Mr. Babbin. While “neither side wants total war with the other,” such a war is “inevitable.”

“While Israel rearms its air defenses, the biggest question is if Iran will tell its Hezbollah proxy force in Lebanon to launch another war on Israel,” he writes. “Hezbollah has thousands of missiles that it could fire at Israel and possibly overwhelm its air defenses. Israel will continue to strike at Hezbollah whenever it sees the need to do so.”

Events on our radar

• April 30 — The Trajectory of India-Russia Ties Amid the War in Ukraine, U.S. Institute of Peace.

• April 30 — Northern Europe, NATO, and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Lithuanian Minister of Defense Laurynas Kasčiūnas, The Hudson Institute.

• May 1 — The Hill & Valley Forum 2024: Bridging National Security and Frontier Technologies, Hill & Valley.

• May 2 — Stress Test: The Toll of the War in Ukraine on the Kremlin, American Enterprise Institute.

• May 6 — Launch of Chinese Handcuffs: How China Hijacked the Environmental Agenda, The Heritage Foundation.

• May 9 — The Erosion of Hong Kong’s Autonomy Since 2020: Implications for the United States, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Thanks for reading Threat Status. Don’t forget to share it with your friends, who can sign up here. And listen to our weekly podcast available here or wherever you get your podcasts. If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.