Biden administration officials claimed in 2021 that the U.S. military did not need to be on the ground in Afghanistan to contain the Islamic State and al Qaeda. The Pentagon, they said, could rely on “over the horizon” missions, mainly in the form of drone strikes, to kill Islamist terrorists before they became a threat to America and its allies.

But in the three years since the American troop withdrawal, the U.S. has carried out exactly one over-the-horizon strike in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province, the terrorist group’s Afghan affiliate better known as ISIS-K, has grown rapidly into a force capable of conducting external operations, such as the massacre at a concert hall in Moscow last month and an assault on a military funeral in Iran earlier this year.

Pentagon officials have warned that the group aims to strike U.S. interests as well. Retired CIA Clandestine Service Officer Daniel N. Hoffman recently discussed the situation on the Threat Status weekly podcast. Center for Strategic and International Studies Transnational Threats Project Director Seth Jones, meanwhile, tells Threat Status that the U.S. military’s lack of base access in Afghanistan presents a “big challenge” in the fight against ISIS-K.

China’s electric vehicle companies are heavily denting U.S. and Japanese car sales in Thailand, and Chinese manufacturers are investing more than $1 billion to assemble their EVs near Bangkok to expand domestic sales and international exports.

Threat Status special correspondent Richard Ehrlich’s dispatch from the Thai capital examines how China has begun constructing plants in Thailand to assemble Chinese EVs for added sales in the Southeast Asian nation and abroad. At least eight Chinese EV makers have been approved for production investments in Thailand’s thriving automaking industry.

Toyota, Isuzu, Mitsubishi, Honda, Ford and other manufacturers still dominate Thailand’s swelling domestic market for combustion cars. But Chinese companies, lured by Thailand’s lower costs and capable workforce, are exploiting the market as a pathway to avoid quotas from the U.S. or other nations on vehicles made in China.

The decision by Niger’s ruling military junta to kick the U.S. military out of a strategic drone base used for counterterrorism operations in several African nations takes center stage in the latest Threat Status weekly podcast.

Counterterrorism expert Bill Roggio, who edits the Long War Journal at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, tells the podcast that the development is “very important,” given that “the Islamic State, as well as al Qaeda both have made some significant gains, particularly in Mali as well as in Sub-Saharan African countries.”

“They’re only going to grow,” warns Mr. Roggio, who asserts that the region is a “booming theater for Islamist terrorists.”

The Pentagon said last week that U.S. Ambassador to Niger Kathleen FitzGibbon and Air Force Maj. Gen. Kenneth Ekman, U.S. Africa Command’s director of strategy, engagement and programs, were in Niger “to initiate discussions on an orderly and safe withdrawal” of U.S. forces from the country.

Chinese organizations involved in developing hypersonic missiles and related technologies have benefited from American research, according to a report by an Air Force think tank.

“The PRC organizations with which U.S. researchers collaborate on hypersonics include not only actual military organizations, such as [China’s] National University of Defense Technology,” the report by the China Aerospace Studies Institute says, using the abbreviation for the People’s Republic of China. “These collaborations have the potential to support PRC military research, indicating the need for appropriate screening mechanisms and careful due diligence before embarking on such collaborations.”

The report, made public earlier this month, said a “significant amount” of U.S.-China collaboration on hypersonics has taken place, based on data obtained from Chinese online sources. The collaboration appears focused mainly on propulsion technology along with design technology, materials processing and manufacturing, and flight navigation, guidance and control.

U.S. critical mineral supply chains are too reliant on China. At the same time, many African countries possess abundant critical minerals that are attracting worldwide investment, especially from Beijing. “These trends will significantly affect African development and U.S. economic and national security, as captured in the recent report ‘Critical Minerals in Africa’ from the U.S. Institute of Peace,” writes distinguished USIP Fellow Thomas P. Sheehy.

While Mr. Sheehy argues that the “U.S. private sector must lead,” he asserts the U.S. government has the potential to “successfully facilitate partnerships that boost African economic development and diversify U.S. critical mineral supply chains.”

“More focused and efficient support of mining and related infrastructure by the U.S. International Development Finance Corp., Export-Import Bank, Trade and Development Agency and other relevant U.S. government agencies would help,” he writes, adding that “the State Department and the U.S. Commercial Service are badly under-resourced in Africa, shortchanging commercial diplomacy on behalf of U.S. companies.”

• April 29 — A fireside chat with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Russian Anti-War Committee founder, Atlantic Council.

• April 29 — Domestic deployment of the National Guard, The Brookings Institution.

• April 30 — The Trajectory of India-Russia Ties Amid the War in Ukraine, U.S. Institute of Peace.

• April 30 — Northern Europe, NATO, and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Lithuanian Minister of Defense Laurynas Kasčiūnas, The Hudson Institute.

• May 2 — Stress Test: The Toll of the War in Ukraine on the Kremlin, American Enterprise Institute.

• May 6 — Launch of Chinese Handcuffs: How China Hijacked the Environmental Agenda, The Heritage Foundation.