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Welcome to Threat Status. Share it with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor

The U.K. just pledged another $620 million in military aid for Ukraine, and Israel’s military is rejecting claims by Hamas that Israeli troops created mass graves after the siege of a hospital.

…Chinese organized crime rings are surging in Mexico, as are fears of Russian intelligence links to Mexican drug cartels.

…A joint statement from the U.S.-New Zealand Space Dialogue highlights how New Zealand’s “geographic advantages” have given “strategic resilience” to U.S. private sector and government launch activities.

…North Korean state media says Kim Jong-un oversaw the first-ever test of Pyongyang’s “Nuclear Trigger system” on Monday.

…And, marking the release of the State Department’s annual human rights report, Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized how the average age of Cuba’s political prisoners is just 32.

The growing world of Chinese organized crime in Mexico

Washington Times National Security Editor Guy Taylor sits down with longtime international organized crime expert and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown for Threat Status.

The Sinaloa drug cartel in Mexico has had “more than two decades of relations with Chinese organized crime,” according to Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown, who asserts that the illegal fentanyl manufacturing and smuggling market has “expanded the scope” of their engagement.

Ms. Felbab-Brown joined Threat Status for an exclusive “Influencers” video interview, explaining that as Mexico and China have been growing their legal trade relations, Chinese criminal networks have taken on an increasingly robust role in activities just south of the United States.

While she also cites concern over “potential linkages between Russian intelligence and Mexican cartels,” Ms. Felbab-Brown tells Threat Status that it’s an open question whether the Chinese government is exploiting the fentanyl crisis for leverage over Washington. “I’m asked all the time is China using fentanyl as asymmetric warfare against the United States. And the answer is with absolute certainty, I can say: ‘I don’t know,’” she says. “Whoever has the wiretap to the Politburo can know the answer.”

Inside the Pentagon's first 'AI dogfights'

This photo supplied by the Air Force Research Laboratory captures the X-62 VISTA as it flies in the skies over Edwards Air Force Base, California, on Aug. 26, 2022. (Air Force photo by Kyle Brasier)

The U.S. military has pitted a manned F-16 against an aircraft controlled by artificial intelligence for aerial combat exercises over the past year, with the most recent occurring over Edwards Air Force Base in California earlier this month, Washington Times tech correspondent Ryan Lovelace reports.

The experimental X-62A  aircraft, whose controls were operated by cutting-edge AI technology in the latest exercise, traveled at speeds of 1,200 mph and came within 2,000 feet of its human opponent in the F-16, according to the Air Force Research Laboratory. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall called the encounter a “transformational moment” for the U.S. Air Force Test Pilot School and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

The X-62A VISTA aircraft is effectively an F-16 with technology akin to an entire flight simulator laboratory crammed into it, according to a DARPA video released this month. DARPA said that while human pilots were inside the X-62A throughout the AI dogfighting, they never flipped a safety switch to take control of the aircraft.

Neither the Air Force Research Laboratory nor DARPA have said whether the machine or man prevailed in the sky.

China seethes over U.S.-Philippine military drills

U.S. Marine Corps Lt. Gen. William Jurney, U.S. Exercise Director, speaks during the opening ceremonies of the "Balikatan" or Shoulder-to-Shoulder at Camp Aguinaldo military headquarters in Quezon City, Philippines on Monday, April 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Basilio Sepe)

The U.S. and the Philippines have begun large annual military drills that will run through May 10, with more than 16,000 troops practicing cyber and information warfare, as well as maritime security and air defense. Smaller contingents of Australian and French troops are joining the drills this year, and officers from India and Japan will observe the maneuvers.

China on Monday sharply condemned the drills, which are taking place not only in Philippine waters, but in areas of the South China Sea that Beijing claims as its own territory. “Drawing in countries outside the South China Sea to flex their muscles and stoke confrontation in the region will only intensify tensions,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian.

The Pentagon has secured new basing rights in the Philippines, and has also deployed a system capable of launching high-speed anti-ship strikes with Tomahawk cruise missiles and the RIM-174 Standard Extended Range Active Missile. 

The drills began Monday as a high-level naval symposium got underway in China, where U.S. officials are among the participants discussing efforts to ease regional tensions directly with their Chinese and Russian counterparts.

Opinion front: Saudi Arabia’s Palestinian state conundrum

Isreal and Palestine two-state solution in Middle East illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Saudi Arabia’s official stance on the concept of a Palestinian state has undergone a notable shift in recent weeks, writes Amit Halevi, a member of the Foreign Relations and Defense Committee of the Israeli Parliament.

“Since the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia has portrayed such a state as a distant, nebulous objective, leaving the impression of mere lip service,” Mr. Halevi writes. “Mounting pressure from the White House and certain segments of Saudi society, however, has compelled it to formally endorse the recognition of a Palestinian state. This move aligns with plans outlined in the ‘Arab Vision’ document of the Forum of 6 made up of Jordan, Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the Palestinian Authority and Saudi Arabia itself.”

The Biden 'Help your enemies' doctrine

Biden foreign policy doctrine illustration by Greg Groesch / The Washington Times

“When President Biden warned Iran not to attack Israel with the single word ‘Don’t,’ he was setting himself up to look foolish and weak,” writes former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

“The Iranian theocratic dictatorship pays no heed to Mr. Biden. Iran’s leaders have taken his measure over months of proxy warfare. Iran and its proxies have killed Americans, routinely fired at U.S. bases and ships, and enthusiastically ignored every American effort to appease them,” Mr. Gingrich writes. “Just as Mr. Biden ignored the Chinese Communist Party spy balloon gradually crossing the United States, he thought the Israelis should ignore 335 drones and missiles fired at their country. Watching the bizarre performance, it hit me that the Biden Doctrine is to cripple your allies and help your enemies.”

Events on our radar

• April 23 — Advancing Stability in Northern Nigeria, U.S. Institute of Peace.

• April 23 — Navigating the Seas with Admiral Lisa Franchetti, Chief of Naval Operations of the U.S. Navy, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

• April 23 — Maritime Power for Global Security: A Conversation with U.S. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, The Stimson Center.

• April 24 — A Conversation with Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell: The New Era in the US-Japan Relationship, Hudson Institute.

• April 24 — Global Security Forum 2024: Gathering Strength in a Gathering Storm, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

• April 25 — In True Face: A Conversation With Jonna Mendez; Former Chief of Disguise at CIA, The Hayden Center at George Mason University.

• April 25 — Book Event: ‘Tackling the China Challenge with Strength,’ Hudson Institute.

Thanks for reading Threat Status. Don’t forget to share it with your friends, who can sign up here. And listen to our weekly podcast available here or wherever you get your podcasts. If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.