The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is bracing for the emergence of a cryptanalytically relevant quantum computer that could upend digital security in unprecedented ways. 

Cyber officials say such a device, dubbed CRQC, would be capable of breaking encryption to expose government secrets and people’s personal information to anyone who uses the machine, reports National Security Tech Correspondent Ryan Lovelace. Nations will rush to develop the tech and keep it hidden from public view to steal their enemies’ data while upending information security in the process, says CISA’s Associate Chief of Strategic Technology Garfield Jones.

“When it drops, it’s not going to be, I don’t think it’s going to be a slow drop,” Mr. Jones said Tuesday. “I think once someone gets this CRQC, none of us will know.” He described the environment surrounding the development of the CRQC as “almost very close to a nuclear weapon,” with nations competing to obtain the machine and keep it top secret.

That question is once again front and center in Washington, with speculation swirling in national security circles that Tehran’s unprecedented attack on Israel was crafted to appear spectacular and aggressive but not intended to be its opening salvo in a full-blown conflict.

National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang writes that the Iranian government seems reluctant to plunge into direct war with its greatest foes, Israel and the U.S. Instead, it seems to crave a state of near war or constant tension that stops short of the kind of conflict that could thrust Iran into chaos.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, tells Threat Status that “the Islamic republic thrives” on a state of conflict, not war. “Tehran accomplished the lion’s share of its goals against Israel in the week before it launched missiles,” says Mr. Ben Taleblu. “Literally, the world was watching and waiting on Iran, forced to take their threats seriously due to their increasing drone and missile use in the region. This was a status boon and a security boon.”

In a separate analysis published Tuesday by the Middle East Policy Council, former Iranian nuclear negotiations spokesman turned Princeton professor Sayed Hossein Mousavian argues that “Iran wanted to send a message to Washington and Tel Aviv that ‘stop attacking Iran; otherwise, we will conduct broader and more serious operations in the future without prior notice.’”

President Biden and his administration knew for days that Iran was preparing a major military strike on Israel, but they were unable to stop it. National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz has a deep-dive analysis, examining how the Iranian attack marked the second high-profile failure of the administration’s diplomacy-oriented policies over the past two years.

In 2022, U.S. intelligence provided extraordinary details of Russian military plans for the invasion of Ukraine. Still, the administration could not head off the invasion. These two failures could have significant consequences amid growing fears China will calculate that American power has declined to a point where Beijing’s military can act with impunity and launch an attack on Taiwan.

Mr. Gertz cites retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mike Studeman’s assertion after meeting recently with Taiwan’s leaders amid signs China is preparing for either a blockade or all-out invasion within the next 10 years. “The question wasn’t whether. The question was when,” the retired rear admiral said of China’s potential move on the island-democracy.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, meanwhile, told his Chinese counterpart on Tuesday that U.S. forces will continue to fly and sail in international waters, including the disputed South China Sea. Mr. Austin spoke to Adm. Dong Jun, the Chinese defense minister, via video call. It’s the first time the two have spoken since November 2022, Pentagon officials said.

The Chinese government is supporting illicit trade in deadly fentanyl by offering tax rebates and other incentives to manufacturers in China, according to a bipartisan report by the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.

An investigation by the committee, based on data gathered from the Chinese government’s internet, revealed extensive links between fentanyl trafficking and the Chinese government which is under tight control by the CCP. The government “directly subsidizes the manufacturing and export of illicit fentanyl materials and other synthetic narcotics through tax rebates,” the report states.

The Defense Department projects that operation and maintenance costs through 2088 for the Lockheed Martin-built F-35 will be $1.58 trillion, a 44% increase from the 2018 estimates, the Government Accountability Office said Monday. “Yet [the Pentagon] plans to fly the F-35 less than originally estimated, partly because of reliability issues with the aircraft,” according to the GAO.

Pentagon Correspondent Mike Glenn, meanwhile, reports that U.S. Army and Air Force leaders say the services’ recruiting outlook is getting better, although the Navy is still falling short. The military missed its overall recruiting goals by 41,000 last fiscal year — the steepest shortfall since the end of the draft more than 50 years ago. Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth told lawmakers on Tuesday that the service is “fundamentally transforming” its recruiting enterprise to better compete against civilian employers.

The U.S. and South Korea celebrated the 70th anniversary of their alliance last year, and on Tuesday, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers joined with several visiting members of South Korea’s National Assembly to emphasize how the alliance is still growing. The Korea Inter-Parliamentary Exchange Center Reception, which was held a few blocks from the U.S. Capitol, was hosted by National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-Pyo, who lauded the strength of the alliance amid “intensifying geopolitical competition” and global crises.

The Biden administration has pushed with some success over the past three years to expand Washington’s military, diplomatic and economic alliances with South Korea and Japan, the two most technologically advanced and politically influential democracies on the geographic periphery of Communist Party-ruled China. “Korea will continue to stand with the United States and enhance our contribution to the promotion of peace and security,” Mr. Kim said. “We will also work closely with our like-minded partners, countries who share the same universal values of freedom, democracy and the rule of law.”

Several U.S. lawmakers also gave remarks, including Rep. Young Kim, California Republican and chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee on the Indo-Pacific. “In that role, my priority is to strengthen our relationship with our strongest allies, and that includes South Korea,” Ms. Kim told the gathering. “I know our relationship is going to be even better as we move forward.”

One of the many ways last weekend’s drone and missile attacks on Israel could have been worse was if Iran’s rulers had instructed their U.S.-based operatives to simultaneously carry out a terrorist attack and U.S. intelligence agencies failed to learn about it, writes regular Threat Status contributor Clifford D. May, who argues such a scenario could unfold if the Senate fails to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

“Senate approval is necessary before an April 19 deadline. That’s likely, though hardly guaranteed,” writes Mr. May, who digs into the nuances behind the alignment between some Republicans and far-left Democrats who have tried to halt the reauthorization.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s state visit to Washington last week was a timely reminder by one of our closest allies that the tense situation in East Asia will require even greater U.S. global leadership, writes regular Threat Status contributor and longtime diplomat Joseph DeTrani. 

“In his address to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Kishida said it clearly: ‘The leadership of the U.S. is indispensable. Without U.S. support, how long before Ukraine’s hopes would collapse under the onslaught from Moscow? Without the presence of the U.S., how long before the Indo-Pacific would face even harsher realities? Ukraine of today may be East Asia of tomorrow,’” Mr. DeTrani writes.