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Threat Status is daily: Share it with your friends, who can sign up here, and feel free to send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor or National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

Russia is blaming Ukraine — and by extension, the U.S. — for the deadly ISIS-K terrorist attack in Moscow.

…Democrats deny there’s an illegal immigrant “invasion” at the southern border.

…The outgoing Pentagon AI chief warns that there’s no technological “magic” cure for the nation’s woes.

…And more Americans, especially young people, are questioning Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip.

The Kremlin lashes out

First response officers inspect the damage after a Russian air attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, March 25, 2024. Five people were injured in the strike at Pechersk district of Kyiv, two were hospitalized.(AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)

The fallout from Friday’s deadly ISIS-K attack at a Moscow rock concert, which left more than 130 people dead, is quickly stretching far beyond Russia. A day after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a national day of mourning, leading Kremlin officials quickly tried to deflect attention away from the Islamic State terror group — which repeatedly claimed it was behind the attack — and toward Ukraine and its chief ally, the U.S. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters that the U.S. is pushing “tales” about the Islamic State while essentially covering for Ukraine.

As Russia blames Ukraine, its military forces targeted Kyiv with yet another round of major airstrikes, the third over just the past five days. It’s not clear whether the military strikes would have gone ahead even without Friday’s massacre in Moscow, but there are growing questions in national security circles about whether Mr. Putin will take out his anger and frustration on Ukraine.

Mr. Taylor and Mr. Wolfgang tackle that issue and other key questions swirling around the Russia-Ukraine war on this week’s episode of the Threat Status Podcast.

The growing ISIS threat

Dalerdzhon Mirzoyev, a suspect in the Crocus City Hall shooting on Friday sits in a glass cage in the Basmanny District Court in Moscow, Russia, Sunday, March 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

The Moscow attack underscores what U.S. military and national security officials have been warning about: ISIS-K is getting stronger and more capable of carrying out attacks across the Middle East and Europe. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Rep. Michael McCaul told CBS News on Sunday that the group is eager to hit U.S. interests in Europe.

An investigation into the Moscow attack could offer clues as to the group’s capabilities and its internal structure. Four men accused of taking part in the attack, reportedly from Tajikistan, appeared in a Moscow court on Sunday. They appeared to show signs of severe beatings, with one of them reportedly being barely conscious during the hearing.

Don't call it an 'invasion'

Migrants breach infrastructure set up by the Texas National Guard on the Rio Grande in El Paso, Texas on Thursday, March 21, 2024. (Omar Ornelas/El Paso Times via AP)

More than 100 migrants last week broke through razor wire and knocked over Texas National Guard troops guarding the U.S.-Mexico border. If you think that sounds like an invasion, Democrats disagree.

“I don’t think it’s an invasion. It’s an immigration crisis,” Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, told “Fox News Sunday.” 

The Washington Times’ Stephen Dinan has a closer look at the crisis, including the so-called “walkaways” phenomenon. The term refers to illegal immigrants who appear at the border fence where agents are too overwhelmed to make arrests. Essentially, they’re free to leave whenever they like.

It’s a problem that keeps getting worse. Illegal immigration ticked up in February, with the Department of Homeland Security reporting more than 256,000 encounters with unauthorized migrants. That’s about 13,000 more than in January. The February figures include another 11 migrants whose identities were found on the government’s terrorism watchlist.

Pentagon official: AI won't save us…

Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., speaks during a hearing at the Capitol in Washington, July 18, 2023. The surprise retirement of a GOP congressman in a solidly Republican Wisconsin congressional district has potential candidates weighing a run, even as a former state lawmaker quickly jumped into the race. U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher announced Saturday that he won’t run for a fifth term representing the 8th Congressional District in northeast Wisconsin. Just hours after the announcement his retirement, former state Sen. Roger Roth, of Appleton, announced his candidacy. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

… But it probably won’t destroy mankind anytime soon, either. That’s the takeaway from the Pentagon’s departing AI chief, Craig Martell, who pushed back on tech companies’ claims that powerful new AI tools can serve as the solution to, or the cause of, existential problems.

The Times’ Ryan Lovelace covered the testimony of Mr. Martell, the Defense Department’s outgoing chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, before a House panel last week.

One of his big messages on AI: “It is neither a panacea nor is it a Pandora’s box,” Mr. Martell said.

Waiting on a cease-fire

Palestinians inspect the damage of residential buildings after an Israeli airstrike in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, Sunday, March 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)

The United Nations Security Council is set to vote Monday on a resolution demanding an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza, marking the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. It’s the latest development in the long-running push to place a temporary pause on hostilities in the Palestinian enclave and potentially pave the way for the release of hostages still held by Hamas.

Israeli media reported Monday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is now willing to release as many as 800 Palestinian prisoners, including 100 inmates convicted of murder, in exchange for the freedom of 40 hostages held by Hamas. The Palestinian militant group is believed to still have about 100 hostages in its custody.

Israel faces growing pressure to change the dynamic on the ground in Gaza, as Americans are broadly beginning to question the military operation there. About 6 in 10 Americans say Israel has valid reasons for fighting Hamas, but only about 4 in 10 say Israel’s conduct of the war has been acceptable, according to a Pew Research Center survey.

Opinion front: Is Europe worth protecting?

America defending NATO's European members illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Europe is getting more dangerous. And the U.S. is spending more and more money to help defend it. But is it time to draw the line?

Washington Times columnist Michael McKenna offers a provocative question: Is Europe — as it exists now, not as Americans have recreated it from memories of their ancestors, or movies, or trips to highly curated tourist sites — worth protecting?

Thanks for reading Threat Status. Don’t forget to share it with your friends, who can sign up here. And if you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.