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Threat Status for Wednesday, January 29, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

President Trump launched a trade war against China during his first term and vowed on the campaign trail to impose 60% tariffs this time around. Now that he is back in the White House, however, Mr. Trump appears to be pursuing a more moderate approach to the communist great-power competitor.

… Threat Status opinion contributor Miles Yu, who heads the Hudson Institute’s China Center, says Mr. Trump is “keeping his eyes on the prize, which is to maintain U.S. supremacy without risking open and avoidable confrontation with China, while perfectly willing to walk away from the negotiation table and play hardball.”

… Those comments came as a new report claimed Beijing is focused on subverting the U.S. through operations at the state and local levels. 

… Russian oil sales to China and India are stalling as U.S. sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine trigger price increases.

… North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un proclaimed during a visit to the Yongbyon enrichment site that “a long-term confrontation with the most vicious hostile countries is inevitable.”

… Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not only stripped retired Army Gen. Mark A. Milley’s security clearance, he’s ordered an official inquiry into the former Joint Chiefs chairman’s conduct.

… Australian police say a trailer found laden with explosives near Sydney is the latest escalation in a series of antisemitic attacks in the country.

… And Mr. Trump has directed SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to speed up the return of two NASA astronauts awaiting retrieval on the International Space Station. 

Ukraine claims major drone strike on energy sites deep in Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy answers questions at a news conference in a city subway under a central square in Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 23, 2022. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)

Ukrainian forces said Wednesday that they had carried out their second successful drone attack on Russia’s energy infrastructure in less than a week, claiming to have damaged an oil refinery deep inside Russian territory.

The overnight drone attack significantly damaged a Lukoil depot about 500 miles from the front lines of the war, according to the Ukrainian military. Videos on social media purported to show the oil facility burning in the strike’s aftermath.

Russian officials reported a massive drone attack by Ukrainian forces, claiming that one Ukrainian drone had been shot down when it attempted to strike a nuclear power facility. Overall, Moscow claimed its forces shot down more than 100 Ukrainian drones. Wednesday’s strike came days after Ukrainian drones separately hit Russia’s Ryazan refinery.

Israeli moves adding to instability, unease following Assad's ouster

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, visits Israeli forces in a buffer zone inside Syria, Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024. (Israel Government Press Office via AP)

Israel’s deepening military incursions into Syrian territory are adding another layer of uncertainty and instability at a critical juncture for Damascus, as Syria’s untested new leaders try to navigate the way forward after the stunning collapse of the long-ruling Bashar Assad regime.

Although Israeli officials frame the military actions as necessary for national security, the developments complicate U.S. strategy in the region. Special Correspondents Ahmad Qweidar and Jacob Wirtschafter write from Syria that Turkey is adding to the situation’s complexity with military operations targeting Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the heavily Kurdish areas of northeastern Syria.

Washington, which has supported the SDF in its fight against Islamic State militants, is in a delicate position. The Trump administration faces the challenge of balancing unwavering support for Israel with broader goals of maintaining regional stability, countering Iranian influence and managing alliances with other key players such as Turkey. Mr. Trump has expressed a strong desire to keep the U.S. out of the unfolding drama in Syria, but may be dragged into it even deeper.

Air Force facing severe pilot shortages

U.S. Air Force F-16 airplanes take part in a joint aerial drills at the Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, Dec. 6, 2017. (Kim Hong-Ji/Pool Photo via AP) **FILE**

The U.S. Air Force doesn’t have enough trained pilots to win in a conflict against a peer adversary like China or meet the nation’s other national security requirements, according to a new policy paper from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Mitchell analysts say the Air Force has been plagued by a persistent shortage of about 2,000 pilots for more than two decades, particularly in the fighter pilot ranks.

“The service desperately needs more pilots, but it also needs to retain the experienced pilots it already has in the force,” said Heather Penny, a senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute who authored the paper. “The United States cannot afford the problem that persists if we are to effectively posture ourselves for the demands of great-power competition.”

Gen. David W. Allvin, the Air Force chief of staff, wrote recently in Breaking Defense that the service has been on a wartime footing since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. “Today, our aircraft fleet is smaller and older than at any time in history, and the gap between our high-end combat training and that of our pacing competitors has closed dramatically,” he wrote, adding that the force is currently “20,000-30,000 short of our requirements.”

Opinion: Qatar and the U.S. both want a stable Middle East

United States of America, Qatar, Israel and Gaza illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Ali Al Ansari highlights Qatar’s vital help in reaching the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, writing that Doha’s “role as a mediator is often misrepresented,” saying in a recent opinion piece in The Washington Times that critics have “falsely referred to Qatar as ‘duplicitous’ and a supporter of terrorism.”

“Irresponsible attacks such as this are part of a broader campaign to try to drive a wedge between Qatar and the United States as security partners,” writes Mr. Al Ansari, media attache at the Qatari Embassy in Washington. “Allegations that Qatar supports or funds Hamas have been repeatedly debunked.”

“Qatar has never provided financial aid to Hamas,” Mr. Al Ansari adds. “Aid provided by Qatar has been directed to Palestinian civilians and has always been coordinated with both the Israeli and U.S. governments.”

Opinion: Hamas’ rule in Gaza has been disastrous for both Arabs and Israelis

Hamas' rule in Gaza illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

The Gaza Strip desperately needs a complete break from the “tunnel-infested terrorism haven it became under Hamas,” according to Ariel and Rena Cohen, who write that “Israel cannot tolerate any repeat of the murderous chaos that terrorists wreaked on Oct. 7, 2023. Nor can it countenance a continuation of the shelling and attacks on Israelis that Islamist terrorist organizations have conducted from the strip since 2006.”

“A rebuilding initiative led by nations that signed the Abraham Accords could bring a new dawn,” they write. “International receivership in Gaza is warranted. This area has repeatedly become a flashpoint threatening global stability from Yemen to London to New York. It attacks its neighbors while constantly requiring international aid, and completely fails to develop effective self-governance or a viable economy. It is time to stage a comprehensive external intervention to transform Gaza’s future from hell to hope.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Jan. 31 — Updating U.S.-Japan Cybersecurity Cooperation, Hudson Institute

• Feb. 3 — A European View on Intelligence Cooperation, University of Texas at Austin’s Intelligence Studies Project 

• Feb. 3 — Donald Trump’s Second Term: Thinking through the Transition, Wilson Center

• Feb. 3 — Security in Focus: Poland’s EU Presidency and the Transatlantic Alliance in 2025, Wilson Center

• Feb. 6 — Hearing: “Made in China 2025 — Who is Winning?” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission

• Feb. 6 — Juche and North Korean Special Operations Forces, Institute of World Politics

• Feb. 6 — Biopower: Securing American Leadership in Biotechnology, Center for a New American Security

• Feb. 7 — China and Russia: Strategic Dynamics, MITRE

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.