Threat Status for Monday, January 27, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
National Security sources tell Threat Status that President Trump’s “Iron Dome for America” rhetoric is tethered to a viable plan to harness 21st-century satellite technology to create an advanced missile shield capable of deterring potential long-range attacks from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
… China’s foreign minister has issued a veiled warning to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, days before Mr. Rubio heads to Central America on a trip that will include a stop in Panama, where Mr. Trump has complained that Beijing is controlling the Panama Canal.
… The Israel-Hamas ceasefire held through the weekend with the terror group releasing four female Israeli soldiers in exchange for Israel’s release of 200 Palestinian prisoners.
… Mr. Trump has dropped his threat to double tariffs on Colombia, in exchange for Bogota’s agreeing to “unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia,” including those returned on U.S. military planes that had been temporarily refused the right to land.
… The president says he’s not letting up on his pursuit of Greenland and believes Denmark will agree to sell the strategically located, mineral-rich island.
… The Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is rattling U.S. tech stock prices with its claim to have capabilities on par with OpenAI’s ChatGPT at a fraction of the development cost.
… An attack in Sudan killed roughly 70 people over the weekend, and another war is escalating in central Africa, with Rwanda-backed rebels attacking Congo’s strategically located city of Goma.
In trademark Trumpian rhetorical style, the promise to build an Iron Dome for America is not a literal promise to build a replica of the Israeli system, which doesn’t seem financially or logistically feasible for a nation as big as the United States.
National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang offers a closer look, reporting that Mr. Trump’s pledge is actually about constructing a cutting-edge missile defense shield that costs tens — not hundreds — of billions of dollars, using space-based interceptors and other 21st-century tools that can fend off adversary attacks.
Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry “Trey” Obering III, a former director of the federal Missile Defense Agency, tells Threat Status that “we’ve got to be able to destroy anything and everything that North Korea or Iran could throw at us. And we’ve got to be able to destroy anything that Russia or China could throw at us — and have enough capacity to ensure deterrence.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was sworn in over the weekend, said in his first official announcement to the roughly 1.3 million active-duty U.S. troops in uniform that he wants to revive the “warrior ethos” within the armed forces and restore the nation’s trust in the military, asserting that new standards will be “high, uncompromising and clear.”
In a statement circulated Saturday, Mr. Hegseth said Mr. Trump has given him a basic mission: achieve peace through strength. “We will do this in three ways — by restoring the warrior ethos, rebuilding our military and reestablishing deterrence,” the new defense secretary wrote. “All this will be done with a focus on lethality, meritocracy, accountability, standards and readiness.”
Mr. Hegseth, who arrived Monday at the Pentagon voicing full support for Mr. Trump’s hopes to use the military to fight illegal immigration, also said reviving the defense industrial base, reforming the Pentagon’s acquisition process, passing a financial audit and rapidly fielding emerging technologies are crucial to ensuring that the U.S. military is the “strongest and most lethal force in the world.”
A potential deal between Elon Musk’s Starlink — the constellation of thousands of low-Earth-orbit satellites that communicate with designated ground transceivers — and Italy has some in Europe concerned over security risks. But the leader of the Italian Space Agency (ASI) is trying to quell the fears.
ASI is considering using Starlink’s satellite technology to bolster communications among its federal agencies. Opponents of such a deal point to a possible conflict between Starlink’s satellites and the European Union’s IRIS2 constellation, which is intended to deliver secure communications for EU governments and their agencies but has experienced delays. The project was intended to launch in 2026, but is now not expected to start until 2031.
The Starlink-ASI deal has been rumored for weeks and intensified after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with representatives from several foreign tech companies, including Mr. Musk’s SpaceX. Italian Space Agency head Teodoro Valente said last week that any deal with Starlink would be safe. He added that fears over data security are misplaced, pointing out that a Starlink deal would include carve-outs for a nationally owned security apparatus.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) says it made nearly 1,000 new arrests Sunday, bringing its four-day total to nearly 2,400, as Mr. Trump’s shock and awe crackdown of illegal immigration enters into full force
Among those arrested were dozens of gang members, including migrants tied to Tren de Aragua, the Venezuelan gang that has infiltrated the U.S. over the past three years. Mr. Trump has designated it as an enemy militia. ICE announced over the weekend that it had begun “enhanced targeted operations” in Chicago with other federal law enforcement partners, including the FBI.
Meanwhile, the Army’s 101st Airborne Division announced that it was mobilizing troops from a military police battalion to help with what Mr. Trump declared an “invasion” of illegal immigrants. U.S. military planes are being used to deport migrants from the border directly back to their home countries, and Pentagon officials have said the additional military personnel will help the Border Patrol spot illegal border crossings.
The Hamas-Israel hostage deal has revealed a “glaring and uncomfortable reality – the United States, albeit indirectly, became entangled with a murderous jihadi group,” writes foreign affairs journalist Lisa Daftari, who asserts that “the Trump administration must resist the temptation of direct talks with Hamas, no matter how appealing it may seem amid claims of ‘cooperation’ or regional diplomacy.”
“Negotiating with terrorists is not the hallmark of deterrence, and the U.S. cannot afford to forget that,” writes Ms. Daftari. “The deal brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States relied overwhelmingly on deterrence, not diplomacy. It worked because Hamas understood the serious consequences of finding out what President Trump’s ‘all hell to pay’ ultimatum was all about.
“Deterrence under the Trump administration cannot — and must not — be compromised,” she writes. “True deterrence is not forged at the negotiating table with terrorist groups and their enablers. It is established through decisive action, clear boundaries and unwavering consequences.”
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