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Threat Status for Monday, January 6, 2025. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Syria, Sudan, Ukraine, the Mideast, Haiti, Myanmar and the “intensifying rivalry” between the U.S. and China all made the International Crisis Group’s “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025” list.

… The group asserts that “in unsettled times, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to shake things up further. But how does a disrupter deal with an already disrupted world?”

… North Korea tested a ballistic missile while Secretary of State Antony Blinken was visiting South Korea to show unity with the U.S. ally amid the political crisis gripping Seoul.

… Ukraine mounted an offensive in Russia’s Kursk region over the weekend, making tactical gains that could affect the push for ceasefire negotiations once Mr. Trump arrives in the White House.

… The New Orleans attacker’s secretive radicalization occurred amid a resurgence of ISIS around the world.

… Mr. Trump says U.S. Steel will thrive under his plan to impose tariffs on other nations — an assertion that came as both U.S. Steel and Japan-based Nippon Steel sued the Biden administration for blocking their merger.

… Noted China expert Miles Yu is joining Threat Status as a regular opinion contributor focused on developments in the Indo-Pacific.

… And Booz Allen Hamilton has agreed to pay the U.S. government $15.8 million to resolve allegations that one of its subsidiaries made fraudulent claims relating to the supply of computer military training simulators to the Pentagon.

Chinese officials outraged over U.S. cyber sanctions

The American and Chinese flags wave at Genting Snow Park ahead of the 2022 Winter Olympics, Feb. 2, 2022, in Zhangjiakou, China. (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato, File)

Tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to rise ahead of Mr. Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, with Chinese officials slamming the U.S. for imposing sanctions last week on a China-based cybersecurity company accused of involvement in multiple hacking incidents targeting critical U.S. infrastructure.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun claimed Monday that Beijing has cracked down on cyberattacks and that Washington is using the issue to “defame and smear China.” At the same time, the main Chinese cyber security agency complained of attacks on Chinese networks.

The Biden administration on Jan. 3 announced sanctions on Beijing-based Integrity Technology Group, aiming to strike a blow against China’s “Typhoon” hacking groups ripping through American infrastructure.

National Security Tech Correspondent Ryan Lovelace is closely tracking the developments, reporting that U.S. officials have accused the “Typhoon” hackers of breaching American networks for espionage and pre-positioning for future sabotage operations. The Biden administration said Friday that it has linked Integrity Technology Group to the “Flax Typhoon” hackers who have been operating with connections to the Communist regime’s Ministry of State Security.

North Korea launches missile while Blinken visits Seoul

A TV screen shows a file image of North Korea's missile launch during a news program at Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Jan. 6, 2025. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

North Korea fired a ballistic missile that landed in waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan on Monday in a show of force as the U.S. secretary of state visited South Korea amid the ongoing political crisis gripping Seoul.

Mr. Blinken, whose visit focused on the rising North Korean nuclear threat, met with acting South Korean President Choi Sang-mok on Monday. The secretary of state expressed condolences to Mr. Choi for the “tragic loss of life” in last week’s Jeju Air Flight 2216 crash in which more than 170 people were killed.

The secretary also “reaffirmed the United States’ confidence in the enduring strength” of the U.S.-South Korea alliance despite the recent crisis sparked by impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s short-lived call for martial law, calling the relationship “the linchpin of peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific,” according to a State Department readout of the meeting.

Understanding the New Orleans attack amid ISIS resurgence

An Islamic State flag lies on the ground rolled up behind the pickup truck that Shamsud-Din Jabbar drove into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans on Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert, File)

Behind the Islamic State-inspired assault in New Orleans on New Year’s Day is a disturbing reality: Military officials and national security insiders fear a perfect storm is forming around the world that could lead to more deadly terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Even before U.S. Army veteran Shamsud-Din Jabbar killed 14 New Year’s revelers by driving a vehicle into a crowd on Bourbon Street, a growing consensus in foreign policy circles acknowledged that conditions were ripe for an Islamic State resurgence abroad and a new pool of recruits in the U.S., Europe and Asia willing to carry out acts of violence.

National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang looks at the terror group’s recent resurgence, writing that the more territory the group controls and the safer its leaders feel from attack, the easier it is to coordinate recruiting efforts online, teach would-be terrorists how to build bombs or map out jihadi missions around the globe.

Investigators continue to comb through multiple cellphones and laptops tied to Jabbar and are now taking a closer look at foreign trips the attacker made to Egypt and Canada in 2023. 

Threat Status made an appearance on NewsNation Prime over the weekend to examine the New Orleans attacker’s secretive radicalization, and unpack the dual investigations into the New Orleans attack and the separate Tesla Cybertruck explosion in Las Vegas. Authorities say the two incidents are not linked.

Opinion: How Kash Patel will cripple the FBI

Kash Patel's wall and the FBI illustration by Greg Groesch / The Washington Times

Kash Patel, Mr. Trump’s pick to lead the FBI, wants to separate the counterterrorism and counterintelligence side of the FBI from the side that investigates criminal violations, effectively creating a wall similar to the one Attorney General Janet Reno imposed on the FBI during the Clinton administration, according to Ronald Kessler.

“The wall, which essentially paralyzed the nation’s effort to hunt down terrorists before they killed people, was the brainchild of Richard Scruggs, whom Reno hired as chief counsel of the Justice Department’s Office of Intelligence Policy and Review,” writes Mr. Kessler, a former Washington Post and Wall Street Journal investigative reporter who is the author of the 2011 bestseller, “The Secrets of the FBI.”

“The reason we have not had a successful foreign terrorist attack since 9/11 is the FBI’s dual role as a law enforcement agency and a counterterrorism and counterintelligence agency working seamlessly together,” Mr. Kessler writes. “Now, if he is confirmed as FBI director, Mr. Patel wants to replicate Reno’s blunder by creating his own wall separating the two sides, to the delight of our enemies.”

Noted China expert Miles Yu joining as columnist

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says Miles Yu, born in China, is “a central part of my team advising me with respect on how to ensure that we protect Americans and secure our freedoms in the face of challenges from the [Chinese Communist Party].” (State Department photograph)

Mr. Yu, who served during the first Trump administration as principal China policy and planning adviser to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, will provide important insights for Threat Status on a biweekly basis through his column “Red Horizon,” which debuts Tuesday, Jan. 7.

Mr. Yu is currently a professor of East Asia and military and naval history at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis. He is also director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution.

During his time in government, he was instrumental in carrying out a major shift in U.S. policy toward China that for the first time in about 40 years recognized Beijing as a major strategic competitor. The policy shift has endured under the Biden administration and has become widely recognized among America’s numerous allies and partners.

Threat Status Events Radar

• Jan. 7 — The Future of Irregular Warfare, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Jan. 7 — Report launch and panel: NATO and U.S.-Turkey defense cooperation in a new era, Atlantic Council

• Jan. 7 — The Hidden Costs: Transparency and the U.S. Arms Trade, Stimson Center

• Jan. 8 — Russia’s Difficult Road to Freedom: A Conversation with Vladimir Kara-Murza, American Enterprise Institute

• Jan. 9 — What do people in Taiwan and the United States think about Taiwan’s security situation? Brookings Institution 

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.