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Threat Status for Wednesday, December 18, 2024. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

Threat Status is tracking a major Pentagon report out today with disturbing new details about China’s military buildup, including the addition of another 100 nuclear warheads to its already impressive arsenal just since 2023. How to contend with the scale and scope of Beijing’s military advancement is one of the most sweeping and complex challenges facing the incoming Trump administration.

… A big part of America’s broader problem stems from gaps in its military-industrial capabilities and the fact that, unlike China, many analysts say the U.S. still hasn’t adopted the necessary “whole-of-nation” approach to national security. Steve Blank, co-founder of the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University, told the Threat Status weekly podcast that “China is operating at the speed of Silicon Valley,” while the Defense Department still operates more “like General Motors.”

… And that’s not good enough anymore. This 2024 report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies summed up the dynamic this way: “China’s defense industrial base is operating on a wartime footing, while the U.S. defense industrial base is largely operating on a peacetime footing.”

… Russia has detained a suspect in the death of Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, who was killed in an apparent Ukrainian intelligence operation outside his Moscow apartment building on Tuesday. 

… There is growing speculation that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could soon step aside. His deputy prime minister and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, abruptly resigned Tuesday, telling Mr. Trudeau that the two were “at odds” over how to handle U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. Mr. Trump, who has clashed with Ms. Freeland in the past, celebrated the resignation on social media.

… The Israeli military has ordered another evacuation of central Gaza, signaling a likely uptick in operations there even as Israel and Hamas seem to be moving toward a ceasefire deal.

… The lower house of Russia’s parliament has approved a bill to remove the terrorist designation for the Taliban in Afghanistan.

… And NASA’s two long-stranded astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, won’t return to Earth until spring. Their mission aboard the International Space Station will now last about 10 months. It was initially scheduled to last just eight days. 

States push for new authority to deal with unidentified drones

Rep. Jim Himes, D-Conn., speaks with The Associated Press about his new role on the House Intelligence Committee, in his office on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023. Himes has been elevated to ranking member after the new Republican leadership removed Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., from the panel. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Lawmakers on the House Intelligence Committee received a classified briefing Tuesday on the spate of mysterious drone sightings on the East Coast. Many of those lawmakers said they were largely satisfied with the answers from the Defense, Homeland and Justice departments, which attributed the sightings to commercial aircraft, innocuous civilian drones, or other objects that do not pose a threat to U.S. national security.

But that’s by no means the end of the story. The fight in Congress is now shifting, with some powerful members pushing to give states permission to detect — and, if necessary, take down — such drones.

New York Democratic Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer said he will ask colleagues to approve a bill to plug gaps in the country’s capabilities, which currently give federal agencies the power to detect and interdict drones but deny it to states and localities.

“Federal authorities agree that they can’t respond to these incidents alone and they need help from local authorities. But unfortunately, the local authorities do not have the authority right now,” Mr. Schumer said.

North Korean troops capture village, suffer heavy losses in Ukraine-Russia war

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un exchange documents during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. (Kristina Kormilitsyna, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

Asia Editor Andrew Salmon is tracking key developments in the Ukraine-Russia war, where North Korean troops have entered the fight alongside Russian troops in the Kursk border region. It’s hard to overstate the importance of this story, as North Korea’s involvement in the war represents a major escalation and the start of a true combat partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang.

North Korean troops were first reported in Russia in October, but have not been confirmed to have taken part in major operations with their Russian allies until last weekend. On Monday, the Pentagon said that North Korean troops had started combat operations and had suffered casualties, while the Kremlin declined to comment. Despite the losses they suffered, the North Korean forces reportedly captured the village of Plekhovo in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, has posted gruesome footage that he says shows Russian forces burning the faces of dead North Korean troops to conceal their involvement in the fighting.

China's massive military buildup: Hundreds of new missiles, 100 nuclear warheads

Chinese military vehicles carrying DF-17 ballistic missiles roll during a parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) **FILE**

China’s massive military buildup is moving ahead at a frightening pace. A Pentagon report made public Wednesday found that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has added hundreds of new missiles and 100 more nuclear warheads just since 2023 as part of its preparations for a possible future war with the U.S.

National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz has all the details on the publication, which also said that the PLA is preparing for sophisticated information warfare operations against its foes, including America. The expected Chinese operations include the use of deep fake fraudulent online posts and cyber-enabled psychological warfare. The goal is to target U.S. military leaders’ decision-making in a regional conflict, demoralize troops, and sow divisions in American society.

What’s even more troubling, perhaps, is China’s ultimate goal: Undermining not just America’s military power, but its standing as a global leader.

The PLA increasingly views warfare as a confrontation between opposing operational systems, rather than annihilation of opposing mechanized military forces,” the Pentagon report said. 

Pentagon: U.S. had no knowledge of Ukrainian operation that killed Russian general

Maj. Gen. Igor Kirillov, the chief of the Russian military's radiation, chemical and biological protection unit, attends a briefing in Kubinka Patriot park, outside Moscow, Russia, on June 22, 2018. (AP Photo) **FILE**

Military Correspondent Mike Glenn is tracking the fallout from an apparent Ukrainian intelligence operation that killed Russian Gen. Kirillov and an aide outside his apartment building in Moscow on Tuesday. At the Defense Department, officials said that the U.S. had no advance knowledge of the killing, which represented a major coup for Ukraine’s intelligence services and an embarrassing blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Inside Russia, authorities said they’ve detained a suspect, who was described as an Uzbek citizen recruited by Ukrainian intelligence services to take part in the operation. The general, who was prominent in the military’s WMD programs, is the highest-ranked Russian officer to be killed in the war.

In our opinion: Syria's new leader is no moderate

Abu Mohammed al-Golani speaks at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus Sunday Dec. 8, 2024. Golani, a former al-Qaida commander who cut ties with the group and says he embraces pluralism and religious tolerance, leads the biggest rebel faction and is poised to chart the country's future. He calls himself by his given name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, and not his nom de guerre. (AP Photo/Omar Albam)

The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government has sparked hope in the West that perhaps the country’s new rulers are moderates who believe in tolerance and peace. But such hope may turn out to be misplaced.

In a new piece for The Times, Clifford D. May, president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a Threat Status contributor, argues that the revolutionaries who overthrow governments rarely turn out to be the moderates that the U.S. hopes.

“Take the revolution that just occurred in Syria. It was led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. He runs Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a rebel group with roots in both al Qaeda and the Islamic State group,” Mr. May writes. “Mr. Jolani is no moderate. Could he be a pragmatist? It’s not impossible that, at this very moment, he’s asking himself: ‘Should I climb into a Toyota pickup with a few of my jihadi buddies, drive up to the Golan Heights and kill some Jews? Or would I rather take a long, hot bath in the presidential palace?’”

Events on our radar

• Dec. 18 — What are the Benefits of International Space Cooperation? Center for Strategic and International Studies 

• Dec. 19 — Putin loses in Syria. Is Russia in retreat? Atlantic Council 

• Jan. 9 — What do people in Taiwan and the United States think about Taiwan’s security situation? Brookings Institution 

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.