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Threat Status for Monday, December 9, 2024. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is the militant group that led the capture of Damascus and the toppling of President Bashar Assad’s regime over the weekend. It was once aligned with al Qaeda and has been on the official U.S. list of foreign terrorist organizations since 2014. But it’s known in Arabic as the “Levant Liberation Committee.”

While Syria has certainly been liberated from a longtime dictator, the question now is whether Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani have the power and the finesse to unite Syrians and prevent a new civil war from breaking out among the many other militant groups that played a role in the week’s stunning events.

… With Israel now bombing chemical weapons depots in Syria, and Mr. Assad being given asylum by Russia, Threat Status offered this video analysis of the situation on Sunday night, underscoring the danger that Islamic extremists will seize the moment of combustibility to seek a resurrection of the Islamic State caliphate in Syria, where roughly 1,000 U.S. forces are currently deployed to prevent just that from happening.

… As Damascus teetered on the edge of falling, President-elect Donald Trump posted on X that “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

… Mr. Trump separately weighed in on his plans to end the Ukraine war and his view of NATO in a major interview with NBC News.

… Political upheaval continues, meanwhile, to grip U.S. ally South Korea.

… And outgoing National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in California that the Biden administration has succeeded in putting “pressure” on China, Iran and Russia.

Assad gets 'asylum' in Russia as Israel pounds Syrian weapons depots

An Israeli soldier stands guard at a security fence near the so-called Alpha Line that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from Syria, in the town of Majdal Shams, Monday, Dec. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)

Russia on Monday granted the deposed Syrian president political asylum, a day after he fled to Moscow as his longtime regime collapsed in the face of a stunning militant offensive that toppled city after city in Syria in recent days.

With questions swirling over what transitional government will take hold amid a dangerous power vacuum now gripping Damascus, the Israeli military has taken the lead in trying to prevent the ousted Assad regime’s weapons of mass destruction stocks from falling into the hands of Islamic extremists operating in Syria. Israeli military forces pounded suspected chemical weapons sites and long-range rockets in Syria on Monday. 

Israeli officials have thus far welcomed the fall of Mr. Assad, who was a key ally of Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group, while expressing concern over what comes next. Israel says its ground forces have temporarily seized a buffer zone inside Syria dating back to a 1974 agreement after Syrian troops withdrew amid the chaos that unfolded through the weekend.

The Assad regime vowed in 2013 that it would give up its chemical weapons stockpile after being accused of carrying out a chemical attack that killed hundreds of people, including children, near Damascus. However, the regime was widely believed to have secretly held on to some of the weapons and was accused of carrying out subsequent chemical attacks inside Syria in more recent years.

Syria developments a 'major blow to Iran'

In this photo released by an official website of the office of the Iranian supreme leader, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves to the crowd during a meeting with school and university students, in Tehran, Iran, Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Israel’s top diplomat in the U.S. said over the weekend that the recent direct Israeli military strikes against Iran and the power shift occurring in Syria have severely weakened the Iranian regime and its proxy forces across the Middle East.

Ambassador Michael Herzog made the comments at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in California on Saturday, hours before the Assad regime collapsed. He predicted that the fall of the Assad regime would mark a “major blow to Iran” and the “Iranian axis of resistance” to U.S. and Israeli influence in the region.

He emphasized that under the Assad regime, Syria acted as a vital link for Iran to access the Mediterranean Sea, to arm and support its proxy force Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to cause trouble on Israel’s border.

Mr. Herzog’s term as Israeli ambassador to the U.S. ends in January. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tapped Yechiel Leiter as Israel’s incoming ambassador in Washington. Mr. Leiter was born in the U.S. and immigrated to Israel decades ago. His son, a soldier in the Israel Defense Forces, was killed in fighting in northern Gaza last year.

Yoon’s downfall in South Korea holds dire implications for Japan, U.S. relations

Members of the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions throw torn papers carrying the names of the ruling party's lawmakers who didn't vote at the impeachment motion last week, during a rally in front of the ruling People Power Party's head office in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Dec. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

As freezing temperatures add further chill to South Korea’s winter of political discontent, analysts are fretting over the foreign policy implications of a resurgence of the country’s left wing.

Conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol finds himself dramatically weakened on the domestic political front. He’s now banned from overseas travel and facing a parliamentary probe for treason. And, in the wake of Mr. Yoon’s failed martial law declaration last week, Seoul is facing the prospect of a return to left-wing governance — likely in a style that seeks accommodation with China and North Korea more extensively than any prior Seoul administration.

Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon analyzes the situation from the South Korean capital, reporting that political shifts unfolding in the wake of Mr. Yoon’s moves last week could tilt Seoul away from Washington and Tokyo toward Beijing and Pyongyang. 

Many in Seoul also worry that the incoming Trump administration in Washington undervalues the U.S.-South Korea alliance. A pro-Beijing shift by Seoul over the coming months could only strain the alliance further.

Chinese defense minister appears after reportedly being under investigation

Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun attends the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) defense ministers' meeting in Vientiane, Laos, Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath)

Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun surfaced in Shanghai last week, days after he was reported to be the third defense minister to face allegations of corruption.

The official state media outlet Xinhua showed Adm. Dong attending a security conference in Shanghai, telling reporters that China’s navy is willing to work with regional navies in securing the Gulf of Guinea, a waterway on the east coast of Africa.

The admiral’s appearance followed a Nov. 26 report in the Financial Times that said he had been placed under investigation as part of a wider probe into corruption within the People’s Liberation Army. Chinese officials denied the FT report.

Opinion: Trump’s North Korea policy should shift from CVID to CVIF

America's North Korea policy illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Current U.S. policy calls for Pyongyang to achieve the complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement, or CVID, of its nuclear program. Suzanne Scholte, who chairs the North Korea Freedom Coalition and Free North Korea Radio, argues that the incoming administration should shift the policy by pursuing “complete, verifiable and irreversible freedom, or CVIF, for the North Korean people.”

“Dramatic changes have occurred since CVID was first described as a policy goal during the George W. Bush administration in 2004,” writes Ms. Scholte. “North Korea has become a nuclear threat, but something positive has also happened: The North Korean people have become far more knowledgeable about the outside world and no longer believe the regime’s lies.”

Opinion: The stakes are high for America in Syria

Abu Mohammed al-Golani speaks at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus Sunday Dec. 8, 2024. Golani, a former al-Qaida commander who cut ties with the group and says he embraces pluralism and religious tolerance, leads the biggest rebel faction and is poised to chart the country's future. He calls himself by his given name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, and not his nom de guerre.(AP Photo/Omar Albam)

David Adesnik, vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, writes in the New York Post that while “Americans across the political spectrum want no part in Syria’s internal conflicts” in the wake of the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime, the U.S. has “interests we can’t afford to ignore.”

“The first is the fate of American hostages in Assad’s prisons, like [American journalist] Austin Tice, as well as the remains of those who died in captivity, like [Syrian-American psychotherapist] Majd Kamalmaz,” writes Mr. Adesnik, who adds that another key U.S. interest is to ensure Syria’s chemical weapons don’t fall into the hands of terrorists.

The U.S. and its allies, writes Mr. Adesnik, should demand “unconditional permission” from whatever new government takes hold in Damascus for international inspectors to be able to “document and dismantle” any remnants of Syria’s pursuit of weapons of mass destruction.

Events on our radar

• Dec. 10 — The Turning Point? U.S.-China Relations, Economic Growth, and the Race for Technology Leadership, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Dec. 10 — Trade & Technology: The Arms Trade Treaty at 10, Stimson Center

• Dec. 10 — India and China in 2025, Hudson Institute

• Dec. 11 — The Future of U.S. Counterterrorism Policy, Atlantic Council

• Dec. 11 — Relations with Turkey under Trump 2.0, Brookings Institution 

• Dec. 11 — Hearing on Infiltration of U.S. Telecom Systems, Senate Commerce Committee

• Dec. 10-12 — 2024 Spacepower Conference, Space Force Association

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.