The Washington Times

Threat Status for Friday, December 6, 2024. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

Iran said its Simorgh program conducted a successful space launch Friday. The two-stage, liquid-fueled Simorgh launch vehicle carried an “orbital propulsion system,” as well as two research systems, to a 250-mile orbit above the Earth, according to Iranian officials.

… This matters because Western intelligence officials have long warned that Iran’s Simorgh program could help Iran shorten the timeline to produce intercontinental ballistic missiles, since the two systems share similar technologies. ICBMs can be used to deliver nuclear weapons.

… Iran’s accelerating space, drone and nuclear programs, along with its conventional weapons capabilities and support for terrorist groups actively targeting U.S. troops in the Middle East, present one of the most urgent and complex challenges for President-elect Donald Trump and his incoming national security team.

… Mr. Trump’s proposed “Department of Government Efficiency,” or DOGE, is all the rage on Capitol Hill and could find plenty of cuts inside the Defense Department.

… But there is also strong support across America for more defense spending. A poll released at the seventh annual Reagan National Defense Survey found that a whopping 79% of Americans are in favor of spending more on defense. That’s the highest level of support for increased spending on any issue, even including border security.

… Journalist Tucker Carlson has a lengthy interview with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Russia’s state-run Tass News Agency heavily promoted the interview and pushed a narrative that a “hybrid war” is being waged against Moscow.

… A lightning offensive by Syrian rebels has captured the city of Hama and now has its eyes on Homs. The rebels’ leader says the group intends to overthrow the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

… Despite past denials from the federal government, an interim investigation by Republicans on a House intelligence oversight panel has concluded that mysterious brain injuries suffered by U.S. diplomatic and intelligence personnel in recent years — known as “Havana syndrome” — are likely the result of some kind of foreign attack.

… And Mr. Trump doubled down Friday morning on his support for former Fox News host Pete Hegseth, his pick to lead the Defense Department, despite a host of misconduct allegations against Mr. Hegseth and skepticism from some Senate Republicans about his nomination.

Judgment day for South Korean President Yoon

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces a showdown that may cost him his job. Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon is covering every angle of the impending impeachment vote on Mr. Yoon, set for Saturday in the National Assembly. The embattled Mr. Yoon has kept a low profile since his disastrous and short-lived martial law declaration earlier this week.

In Seoul, there is still a sense of confusion about exactly why Mr. Yoon took such an extraordinary and politically risky step. A range of prior motivations have been put forward for his extraordinary behavior, Mr. Salmon reports. One is a belief that the deeply unpopular president sought to preempt a likely impeachment in the months ahead by undermining the opposition-led Assembly. A more outlandish theory is that he had consulted a shaman.

Whatever the reason, it appears that the decision could cost Mr. Yoon his presidency. The head of Mr. Yoon’s People Power Party, Han Dong-hoon, announced Friday that he wants the president’s powers removed as swiftly as possible.

Mr. Han’s posture appears to remove the last obstacle to Mr. Yoon’s impeachment.

The Pentagon may be a juicy target for the DOGE

Mr. Trump’s proposed unofficial Department of Government Efficiency, led by tech billionaire Elon Musk and former GOP presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy and tasked with slashing government waste, has captured the imagination of Republicans on Capitol Hill.

House Speaker Mike Johnson signaled his enthusiasm, telling reporters Thursday that DOGE’s work marks a “new day in Washington and a new day in America.”

“This is an important day — it is the beginning of a journey,” the Louisiana Republican said after meeting with Mr. Musk and Mr. Ramaswamy on Capitol Hill. “Let me be frank about this: Government is too big, it does too many things, and it does almost nothing well.”

And if the DOGE is looking for targets, the Defense Department and its $800 billion-plus annual budget may be an appealing target. Retired Air Force Col. Trey Coleman, now the chief product officer at the company Raft, told the Threat Status weekly podcast that the DOGE needs to ask tough questions about military programs.

“What are we doing today that makes us 10x better? What are we doing today that gives us a monumental leap ahead of China or ahead of where we are today?” he said. “If they’re just putting lipstick on a pig, … [then] cut it and give that money to the 10x people. That’s the criteria I would use.”

U.S. arsenals would run out of missiles and weapons within days in China war

Could the U.S. actually lose a war against China? The answer seems to be yes, and the American defense industry’s inability to produce enough missiles and weapons may be the reason.

That was the big takeaway from a major congressional hearing Thursday before the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz has all the details from that hearing, including the stark warning that, based on current stockpiles, the Pentagon would run out of bombs, missiles and other weapons within days of a war with China.

The growing risk of war with China over Taiwan or other flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific was the backdrop for Thursday’s hearing. Lawmakers and private experts called for emergency measures to rebuild the American defense industry to avoid an armed clash with Beijing.

“Our defense industrial base lacks the capacity to deter and win a fight” with China, warned panel Chairman John Moolenaar, Michigan Republican.

Crucial moment for both Ukraine and Russia

In war-torn Ukraine, there’s a growing sense that the next few days and weeks could determine the country’s fate. Washington Times correspondent Guillaume Ptak has a fresh dispatch from the ground in Ukraine, where he reports that the country and its citizens are in perhaps the “most difficult moment” so far in the nearly three-year-old war with Russia.

Ukraine is watching closely for any clues as to how Mr. Trump, and his Ukraine special envoy, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, will handle the conflict during their first days in power. The president-elect has vowed to end the war quickly, but the details of his thinking on the issue remain murky at best.

Russia is pressing the advantage in the hopes of being in a strong negotiating position when Mr. Trump takes office.

Moscow has intensified its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts, and, thanks to the recent influx of thousands of North Korean troops, the Russians have reportedly assembled a 50,000-strong corps to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Russian border territory Kyiv seized this summer in Kursk. Ukraine’s foothold in Russia’s Kursk oblast has steadily shrunk over the past weeks, with Kyiv now controlling only about 40% of the territory it had initially captured during its surprise sortie across the Russian border.

In our opinion: Trump poised to reestablish American space dominance

Space has rapidly become the most complex warfighting domain. And as Russia and China seek to weaponize it, a strong U.S. presence in space is crucial in maintaining our edge, writes Rep. Pat Fallon, Texas Republican, in a new piece for The Times.

He argues that the Biden administration’s “perfect storm of regulatory burdens” has eroded America’s edge over its adversaries, but that Mr. Trump and his team are poised to reestablish it.

“With a renewed commitment to space, the incoming Trump administration can champion a vision of peace through strength, using the domain as a platform for strategic dominance and further economic opportunities,” Mr. Fallon writes. “Echoing the dawn of the space race during the Cold War, we are at a critical juncture in our nation’s history and we must seize the moment.”

Events on our radar

• Dec. 7 — 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum, Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute

• Dec. 10 — Trade & Technology: The Arms Trade Treaty at 10, Stimson Center

• Dec. 10 — India and China in 2025, Hudson Institute

• Dec. 11 — Relations with Turkey under Trump 2.0, Brookings Institution

• Dec. 11 — Hearing on Infiltration of U.S. Telecom Systems, Senate Commerce Committee

• Dec. 10-12 — 2024 Spacepower Conference, Space Force Association

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