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Threat Status for Tuesday, December 3, 2024. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

South Korea’s president has declared an “emergency martial law,” accusing the country’s opposition of sympathizing with North Korea — a move that could impact Seoul’s debate on whether to directly arm Ukraine.

… A war of words and sanctions is heating up between Washington and Beijing ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House.

… Beijing accused the U.S. of slinging “mud” at China over the origins of COVID-19 on Tuesday. Chinese officials also banned exports to the U.S. of key high-tech materials with potential military applications — lashing back at the Biden administration’s imposition a day earlier of new limits on advanced microchip-related exports to China.

… The back-and-forth might look like the latest dust-up in bilateral tensions, but sources tell Threat Status the exchange is a harbinger of just how fast the decoupling of the world’s two most powerful nations is set to move under the coming Trump administration.

… The Biden administration is now scrambling to approve fresh weapons shipments to Ukraine, although NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte sidestepped questions about Ukraine’s possible membership in remarks ahead of a major meeting of the alliance Tuesday.

… Mr. Rutte told NATO foreign ministers in Brussels that he emphasized during a recent meeting with Mr. Trump that China, North Korea and Iran are backing Russia to a level that has put the U.S. and Asia at risk.

… And sources say Saudi Arabia is positioned to be the linchpin of the incoming administration’s diplomatic push for peace in the Middle East.

South Korean president declares martial law

In this photo provided by South Korea Presidential Office, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a press briefing at the presidential office in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024. (South Korea Unification Ministry via AP).

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol made the stunning announcement Tuesday that he was declaring martial law in the key U.S. ally.

Washington Times Asia Bureau Chief Andrew Salmon reports from Seoul that the conservative president, elected in 2022, cited the threat from North Korea but also slammed the opposition-controlled National Assembly as “a den of criminals” that he said was undermining the constitutional order and paralyzing political, administrative and judicial systems. 

A decree put out by a newly formed “Martial Law Command,” seen by The Washington Times, reads in part, “All political activities, including those of the National Assembly, local councils, political parties and any political associations, assemblies and demonstrations are prohibited.”

The National Assembly then voted to defy Mr. Yoon and immediately lift his martial law declaration.

Images show armored vehicles patrolling downtown streets, and there have been reports and video showing that the entrances to the National Assembly were blocked by police.

Beijing accuses U.S. of slinging ‘mud’ with COVID-19 report

In this file photo, security personnel gather near the entrance of the Wuhan Institute of Virology during a visit by the World Health Organization team in Wuhan in China's Hubei province on Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2021. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) ** FILE **

The coronavirus that has killed millions of people worldwide “most likely” leaked from a Chinese lab where researchers were intentionally manipulating the virus, a two-year congressional investigation concluded in a report released Monday.

The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic faulted U.S. health officials for trying to discredit the lab leak explanation and pushing the alternative theory that the virus originated naturally from a still-unknown animal host. The subcommittee cited a range of factors favoring the lab-leak theory, most notably that scientists had unexplained illnesses at China’s Wuhan lab in 2019.

Chinese officials, who have heatedly denied a Wuhan lab played a role in sparking the pandemic, responded with outrage Tuesday. “The so-called report by the U.S., without any substantial evidence, came up with a suggestive, misguided conclusion to frame and throw mud at China,” Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lin Jian said in Beijing. “This is a repetition of the old playbook of using the issue of origins tracing for political manipulation. There is nothing credible about that so-called conclusion.”

Biden rushing weapons aid to Ukraine ahead of Trump

FILE - A Ukrainian serviceman carries a U.S. Stinger air-defense missile launcher on the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, on Tuesday, May 28, 2024. Russian troops are forging through Ukraine's defenses along the front line in a relentless onslaught this summer, prompting the West to push for new weapons and strategies to shore up Kyiv. (AP Photo/Andriy Andriyenko, File)

The Defense Department says it is providing Ukraine with about $725 million in fresh weapons and other military hardware taken from U.S. stockpiles — part of an overtime effort to deliver new aid to Kyiv before the late-January inauguration of Mr. Trump, who has expressed repeated skepticism about the levels of American support for Ukraine.

The U.S. has provided Ukraine with about $62 billion in military assistance since the start of the Biden administration, including about $61.4 billion since Russia launched its invasion of its smaller neighbor in February 2022.

Monday’s announcement marks the 71st time the White House has used the Presidential Drawdown Authority to support Ukraine’s military needs since the start of the Biden administration. The security assistance package includes ammunition for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems [NASAMS] and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems [HIMARS]; 105mm and 155mm artillery rounds; Stinger missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; and landmines.

Syria mess: Iran blames U.S. and Israel for escalation

This photo released on the official Telegram page of the Syrian Presidency shows Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, left, and Syrian President Bashar Assad meeting in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024. (Syrian Presidency Telegram page via AP)

Despite Tehran’s own support for proxy militants in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, Iranian officials are claiming that the U.S. and Israel are behind the renewed fighting that saw anti-government Islamist forces in Syria recapture Aleppo in a fast-moving offensive that has stunned the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Some 900 U.S. military personnel remain in a remote region of Syria as part of the ongoing international mission to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State terror group. On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei claimed the presence in Syria of Islamic State forces and allies is a result of the U.S. military being there. “The continued presence of terrorists in Syria is a result of the U.S. presence,” Mr. Baghaei said. “How is the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group operating in Syria?”

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known as HTS, is a Sunni Islamist political and armed organization battling the Assad regime in the country’s 13-year-old civil war. Formed in 2017 after a merger of several anti-government groups largely bottled up in the northern province of Idlib, HTS launched a surprise offensive last week that resulted in the capture of Aleppo. The U.S. and several other countries have designated HTS as a terror group, although its leaders say they have broken their former ties to al Qaeda.

Saudis key to Trump Mideast strategy; Iran could be spoiler

In this March 20, 2018, file photo, President Donald Trump meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. The prince and Trump are attending the upcoming Group of 20 summit in Argentina. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

Saudi Arabia, the host of Mr. Trump’s first trip abroad during his first four years in office, is emerging as the linchpin of an ambitious and potentially history-making Middle East strategy for his second White House term.

National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang offers an in-depth analysis, writing that for a transformative diplomatic deal to reshape the region, the incoming president and his team will face an even steeper climb than they did eight years ago. They must deal with Iran, which is more motivated and perhaps better positioned than ever before to poison the U.S.-Saudi relationship and, in the process, keep Israel isolated in the Middle East.

Iran’s politically savvy leaders are keenly aware that Mr. Trump may resume his quest for a grand bargain to bring about formal diplomatic normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In exchange, Israel would most likely have to commit to an eventual Palestinian state and the U.S. would give Riyadh security guarantees.

Taiwan's president sends message to China — and Trump

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te gestures before an informal private discussion during a transit stopover in Hawaii en route to visit several Pacific Islands, at the East-West Center, Sunday, Dec. 1, 2024, in Honolulu. (AP Photo/Mengshin Lin)

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te appealed for continued American support to his island democracy during a stopover visit to Hawaii, where he sought to send a message to both China and the incoming Trump administration that the U.S. cannot pull back in Asia in the face of Chinese threats.

In remarks at the East-West Center in Honolulu on Sunday, Mr. Lai noted that Taiwan is a major contributor to the global supply chain, especially through its cutting-edge semiconductors. Taiwan produces chips widely used in a range of products from cars to artificial intelligence applications. Its major chip manufacturer TSMC, is a key supplier to both Apple and Nvidia.

The Hawaii visit was a rare one to U.S. soil by a Taiwanese leader that Beijing immediately denounced. Mr. Lai, who also will visit a second strategic U.S. military hub in the Pacific on Guam during his first overseas trip as president, said U.S. backing is critical for Taiwan’s survival.

Events on our radar

• Dec. 4 — Alaska’s Strategic Importance for the Indo-Pacific, Hudson Institute

• Dec. 5 — China’s Role in Indonesia’s Clean Energy Transition, Wilson Center

• Dec. 5 — Real Space Strategy LIVE: The Future of the Space National Guard, National Institute for Deterrence Studies

• Dec. 6 — Huessy Seminar: China’s Nuclear Program with Chris Yeaw, National Institute for Deterrence Studies

• Dec. 7 — 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum, Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute

• Dec. 10 — Trade & Technology: The Arms Trade Treaty at 10, Stimson Center

• Dec. 10 — India and China in 2025, Hudson Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.