Threat Status for Monday, December 2, 2024. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.
Kash Patel has said a lot about the deep state, Russiagate and the FBI. If you’re trying to figure out who he is in his own words, we recommend starting here with the interview he gave to the Shawn Ryan Show in early September.
… President-elect Donald Trump’s pick of Mr. Patel to lead the FBI has ignited an intense confirmation battle. He had several jobs in the first Trump administration, including chief of staff at the Defense Department, deputy director of national intelligence and senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council. His actions in those roles — specifically his reported involvement in a messy Navy Seal operation in Nigeria — will be under scrutiny during confirmation hearings.
… The violence in the Middle East has spread to Syria, where Russia and Iran are rushing to back Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime against jihadist rebels who launched a stunning offensive over the weekend.
… President Biden is in Africa, where he hopes to draw attention to U.S.-backed projects designed to counter China’s stranglehold on the continent’s critical minerals.
… And activists say Mexican immigration authorities have broken up two small migrant caravans roughly a week after Mr. Trump threatened to slap 25% tariffs on Mexican products unless the country cracks down on illegal border crossings.
Russia and Iran are rushing to support Mr. Assad’s counteroffensive against jihadist rebel groups, who scored stunning advances in Syria over the past five days. In a surprise offensive, insurgents led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a Sunni Muslim Islamist militant group that once aligned itself with al Qaeda — captured the strategic city of Aleppo on Saturday, and there were unconfirmed reports that they had also seized the city of Khansir, cutting off the Assad government’s access to Aleppo.
The move by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham comes as rival Shiite Muslim militant groups backed by Iran have been put on the back foot in the region. Most notably, Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon has been battered by Israeli airstrikes in recent months, including one that killed longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in September.
Regional sources note that the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham surge also comes as the nearby Iraqi Shiite group Kataib Hezbollah threatens to emerge as the top Iran-allied Shiite militia force in the region. There were reports Monday morning that Kataib Hezbollah fighters have crossed into Syria to join the fight against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Iran, Russia and the Assad regime are scrambling to counter the insurgents’ offensive. Syrian state media reported Sunday that Syrian and Russian airstrikes targeted weapon depots and command centers controlled by the jihadist group. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, met with Mr. Assad in Damascus on Sunday, telling reporters that Tehran will back the Syrian government and army.
China’s joint anti-terrorism exercise in Pakistan that began in mid-November is a stark illustration of how Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects are fueling Chinese military mission creep in the Indo-Pacific.
Threat Status Special Correspondent Richard Ehrlich reports in a dispatch from the region that a major thrust of the joint exercise is to help defend BRI projects that have come under a series of deadly attacks by insurgents in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. The projects include upgrades to Pakistan’s north-south roads and Karakoram Highway, the construction of a new international airport at Gwadar, and the expansion of a major deep-water port in the southwestern Pakistan city so Chinese vessels will have a much shorter route for shipping petroleum from the Persian Gulf to China’s oil-ravenous domestic market.
To practice protecting its investments, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent more than 300 special operations, army aviation and logistic support troops from its Western Theater Command to the Pakistan joint exercise, Warrior VIII, which is set to run through Dec. 11, according to China Military Online, an official English-language website of the PLA. In addition to protecting the corridor, China’s troops have been touted as a support force for Pakistan as it deals with jihadi and separatist threats within its borders.
The disparity is stark: While North Korea supplies Russia with vast arms supplies and more than 10,000 troops for its war in Ukraine, South Korea, which boasts one of the world’s most advanced defense export sectors, is so far sending only money to Kyiv, most recently in the form of a $100 million loan for “social expenses.”
Seoul has sent approximately 1 million 155 mm artillery shells to the U.S., supposedly to “backfill” American armories depleted by Pentagon shipments to Ukraine. It is also supplying NATO countries such as Estonia, Finland, Poland, Norway, Romania and Turkey with advanced, heavy weapons.
Speculation now swirls that South Korea will supply arms directly to Ukraine. But any transfer runs afoul of current South Korean law, which forbids arms exports to nations engaged in combat. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, given his government’s minority status in the National Assembly and the leftist majority’s strong opposition to any such step, is currently powerless to overcome the restriction.
The U.S. Coast Guard has issued a second security directive warning that Chinese-manufactured ship-to-shore (STS) container loading cranes, which are used widely at ports in the United States, pose a cybersecurity risk. Maritime Security Directive 105-5 calls on port operators to take “risk management” measures to mitigate the threat.
Built-in vulnerabilities for remote access and control of the cranes, “combined with intelligence regarding China’s interest in disrupting U.S. critical infrastructure, necessitate immediate action,” according to a portion of the directive first noted by the trade website gCaptain.
The directive calls on all owners or operators of STS cranes to immediately contact Coast Guard personnel at ports using the cranes. “By design, these cranes may be controlled, serviced and programmed from remote locations,” the alert states. “Those features potentially leave STS cranes manufactured by [Chinese] companies vulnerable to exploitation, threatening the maritime elements of the national transportation system.”
The Biden administration has suspended a major cooperation deal with the nation of Georgia after the government in Tbilisi announced it was halting its effort to join the European Union and integrate more closely with the West.
The State Department accused the ruling Georgian Dream party over the weekend of using “excessive” force to crush demonstrations that have broken out in the small Caucasian nation on Russia’s southern border in protest over last week’s decision to suspend EU accession talks.
The protests reflect a continuing tug-of-war for influence in the country between Russia and the West, with pro-Western parties seeking to tie Georgia to such Western institutions as the EU and NATO.
• Dec. 3 — In Competition, Crisis, and Conflict: Building America’s Warfighting Navy with U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Lisa Franchetti, Stimson Center
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