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The Washington Times

Threat Status for Friday, November 29, 2024. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

President-elect Donald Trump appears dead set on fulfilling his promise to end the Ukraine-Russia war as soon as possible. His pick of retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg as his special envoy to Ukraine and Russia is an unmistakable signal to all stakeholders that the incoming Trump administration won’t repeat the approach of the Biden White House, which has struggled for years to articulate a clear path toward ending the conflict.

… Gen. Kellogg previously outlined his vision for ending the war, and it tracks closely with that of Mr. Trump: Push Kyiv to the bargaining table by tying continued U.S. military aid to peace talks with Russia. But at the same time, Mr. Kellogg’s proposal warned Russia that a failure to engage in good-faith negotiations would result in even more American arms to Ukraine. While some details remain murky, the choice of Gen. Kellogg sets the stage for Mr. Trump to move quickly on his pledge to end the war. 

… Russian President Vladimir Putin says Mr. Trump’s life is still in danger following two assassination attempts against the president-elect this year.

… Australia’s groundbreaking ban on social media use by children under 16 may be the first domino to fall in a global movement. Mr. Trump’s pick to be the next U.S. surgeon general, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat, also has expressed support for social media limits for children and teens. 

… Threat Status has an exclusive interview with Rep. Nancy Mace, who questions whether the Defense Department and intelligence community are lying to the American public about UFOs and potentially even shielding sensitive information from the president.

… Researchers and religious leaders in Switzerland conducted a two-month experiment examining whether humans would trust an artificial intelligence-driven avatar of Jesus.

… The United Nations nuclear watchdog said Friday that Iran will begin enriching uranium with thousands of advanced centrifuges at its two main nuclear facilities at Fordo and Natanz. But there are clues that Tehran may still be open to a nuclear deal with the Trump administration.

… A major push by Syrian insurgents reached the government-held city of Aleppo on Friday.

… And President Biden urged Mr. Trump to rethink his plan to levy heavy tariffs on imported goods from Mexico and Canada. 

Is the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire already on the brink?

A South Korean U.N peacekeeper patrol drive past destroyed buildings in Chehabiyeh village, southern Lebanon, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2024 following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that went into effect on Wednesday. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

It didn’t take long for questions to arise about the long-term prospects of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal. The Israeli military on Thursday said its warplanes fired on southern Lebanon after detecting Hezbollah activity at a rocket storage facility.

The strikes came not even 48 hours after Israel struck the deal with Iran-backed Hezbollah. The agreement calls for a two-month initial halt in fighting and requires Hezbollah fighters to end their armed presence in a broad swath of southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops would return to their side of the border.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled in an interview with Israeli media that if Hezbollah violates the deal, his military is ready to launch an “intensive war” in Lebanon. Mr. Netanyahu has reportedly instructed his commanders to be ready for operations that extend far beyond the “surgical operations like we’re doing now” if Hezbollah breaks the agreement. 

Will the U.S. follow Australia's lead and ban social media for teens?

A teenager uses his mobile phone to access social media, Sydney, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024. (Dean Lewins/AAP Image VIA AP)

Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon has all the details on Friday’s groundbreaking vote by the Australian parliament to ban social media use by children under 16. The bill is widely viewed as the most sweeping legislation yet passed by a democracy to restrict access to social media.

The bill requires companies that operate social media platforms, such as Facebook and TikTok, to take “reasonable steps” to prevent children under 16 from logging on, or the companies will face fines of up to $32.5 million. To give related businesses time to comply, laws will not take full effect until the end of 2025.

Social media companies are already hitting back at what they believe is a misguided policy move. But there are signs that other countries could follow Australia’s lead.

Mr. Trump’s pick to be the next U.S. surgeon general, former Fox News contributor Dr. Nesheiwat, has spoken extensively about her view that social media use by children and teens is harmful. Her past comments might signal that the Trump administration is open to instituting its own limitations.

It’s a complex issue to be sure. There is a growing body of evidence that social media use can lead to mental health issues, a negative body image and a host of other problems for young people. Yale University scholars say more research is needed and that “social media use aimed at making healthy connections with others may actually be beneficial to some people.”

EXCLUSIVE: Mace on alleged government UFO cover-up

The image from video provided by the Department of Defense shows an unexplained object as it is tracked high in the clouds, traveling against the wind. There's a whole fleet of them, one naval aviator tells another, though only one indistinct object is shown. It's rotating." The U.S. government has been taking a hard look at unidentified flying objects, under orders from Congress, and an official report was released in June 2021. (Department of Defense via AP)

UFO research remains one of the federal government’s most closely guarded secrets. Ms. Mace wants that to change.

In an exclusive interview with the Threat Status weekly podcast, the South Carolina Republican argued that an overclassification of data about unidentified anomalous phenomena, or UAP, only fuels more questions and undermines Americans’ faith in their government. In fact, Ms. Mace questions whether the Pentagon, intelligence community or other arms of the federal government are even hiding information from the commander in chief.

“Are they keeping the president of the United States in the dark?” she said.

Ms. Mace has emerged as one of the loudest voices on Capitol Hill calling for more transparency about UAP. She chaired a historic hearing this month on the issue. And the day after that hearing, the Pentagon revealed that strange drones were seen flying over U.S. nuclear infrastructure, weapons and launch sites at least 18 times between May 2023 and June 1. 

Such incidents have fueled fear that U.S. adversaries, perhaps China or Russia, are routinely flying cutting-edge surveillance drones over American military facilities.

“If they are, it’s deeply concerning and Congress ought to know about it,” Ms. Mace said. “If there is an arms race, I want to make sure we’re winning it.” 

NATO could invoke Article 5 over Russian hybrid war: German officials

FILE - A man walks among flags of member countries as protocol prepare for a flag raising ceremony to mark the accession of Sweden at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Monday, March 11, 2024. U.S. President Joe Biden and his NATO counterparts are meeting in Washington this week to mark the 75th anniversary of the world's biggest security organization just as Russia presses its advantage on the battlefield in Ukraine. (AP Photo/Geert Vanden Wijngaert, File)

As Russian forces pound targets across Ukraine, the ripple effects of the war are cascading through Europe. Officials in key European capitals are even raising the prospect of invoking NATO’s Article 5, which considers an attack on one alliance member to be an attack on all.

Bruno Kahl, the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, said in a speech this week that Russia’s acts of hybrid war against Europe may necessitate such a step. And his counterpart in Britain, MI6 chief Richard Moore, said Friday that Russia is conducting a “staggeringly reckless” sabotage campaign against Ukraine’s Western allies.

Mr. Moore said his agency and its French counterpart were working together to prevent a dangerous escalation by “calibrating the risk and informing the decisions of our respective governments” in response to Russia’s “mix of bluster and aggression.”

“We have recently uncovered a staggeringly reckless campaign of Russian sabotage in Europe, even as Putin and his acolytes resort to nuclear saber-rattling, to sow fear about the consequences of aiding Ukraine,” Mr. Moore said during a speech to diplomats and intelligence officials in France.

Opinion: Russia, China 'at war with democracy'

Donald Trump, his Cabinet and foreign threats around the globe. (Illustration by Linas Garsys/The Washington Times)

The growing threat from Russia is a key piece of the much broader challenge facing Mr. Trump and his team. Retired CIA officer and Threat Status contributor Daniel N. Hoffman writes that both Mr. Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping “are at war with democracy” and intend to undermine the U.S. at every turn.

“Relying on military coercion, espionage and cyberhacking, they want to destroy our institutions, toss gasoline on the partisan fires burning all too hot in our political process, and reduce and when possible eliminate U.S. influence overseas,” Mr. Hoffman writes in a new piece for The Times. “These dictators tout a ‘multipolar world,’ challenging American postwar hegemony, which only cloaks their real intention of breaking up long-standing alliances such as NATO that have deterred great-power aggression and kept the peace so vital to economic growth.”

Events on our radar

• Dec. 2 — The Troublemaker: How Jimmy Lai Became a Billionaire, Hong Kong’s Greatest Dissident, and China’s Most Feared Critic, American Enterprise Institute

• Dec. 3 — In Competition, Crisis, and Conflict: Building America’s Warfighting Navy with CNO Lisa Franchetti, Stimson Center

• Dec. 3 — Addressing Maduro’s Oil Lifeline in the Wake of a Stolen Election, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Dec. 4 — Alaska’s Strategic Importance for the Indo-Pacific, Hudson Institute

• Dec. 5 — China’s Role in Indonesia’s Clean Energy Transition, Wilson Center

• Dec. 5 — Real Space Strategy Live: The Future of the Space National Guard, National Institute for Deterrence Studies

• Dec. 6 — Huessy Seminar: China’s Nuclear Program with Chris Yeaw, National Institute for Deterrence Studies

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.