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Threat Status for Tuesday, November 26, 2024. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Intelligence sources warn that America’s adversaries — specifically China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, but also Cuba and Venezuela — prey on U.S. presidential transitions as strategic moments to advance their interests and undermine Washington on the global stage.

… Whether outgoing Biden administration national security officials are communicating positively — or fighting belligerently — with their incoming Trump administration counterparts is unclear right now.

… Incoming Trump National Security Adviser Mike Waltz says the Trump transition team is working “hand in glove” with the Biden administration on national security. But the Pentagon says the Trump team has yet to even sign the necessary memorandum of understanding to allow incoming personnel to meet with the designated transition staff at the Defense Department.

… We’re tracking the transition communications closely. Threat Status opinion contributor Daniel N. Hoffman, a former high-level CIA officer, weighed in Monday on the situation, saying a smooth transfer of power is vital to the status of ongoing policy endeavors such as the pursuit of a Mideast ceasefire deal.

… A possible Israel-Hezbollah deal, one that sources say could be announced imminently, reportedly includes a promise that Israeli Defense Forces will pull out of Lebanon within 60 days.

… On a separate front, President-elect Donald Trump caused a media frenzy Monday by vowing to impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada, and additional 10% levies on all Chinese products, on his first day in office, to force action on immigration and illegal drug trafficking.

… Ukraine says an overnight blitz by Russia sets a new record for the number of drones used to target Ukrainian infrastructure.

… The engine of Japan’s flagship new small rocket burst into flames during a test on Tuesday — the second time that’s happened.

… And France-headquartered Interpol has arrested more than 1,000 suspects in Africa in a major operation targeting cybercrime.

Critical choice if Trump recognizes North's nuke status

A TV screen shows an image of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Friday, Sept. 13, 2024. The letters read, "North Korea, unveiling the uranium enrichment facility for the first time," and "the construction site for expanding the capacity for the production of nuclear weapons." (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

The head of South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy — a prominent intelligence community think tank in Seoul — says that if the incoming Trump administration resumes diplomatic outreach to North Korea and recognizes Pyongyang as a nuclear state, then the result would be “traumatic” for South Korea, which could respond by developing its own nuclear weapons.

Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon notes the assessment in a dispatch from Seoul, writing that South Korean security experts are deeply wary about the lengths to which Mr. Trump may go to renew diplomacy with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, whose global footing is currently firmer than ever given his new ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Mr. Trump has drawn sharp criticism for suggesting in the past that South Korea and nearby Japan might do well to develop nuclear weapons. The question now is whether he will contain or spark a Northeast Asian nuclear arms race, which is brewing in the face of China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and the prospect of expanding weapons and technology collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang.

Polls show deep support among South Koreans for a nuclear weapon. Conservative South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has also mentioned nukes, but has been assuaged so far by the Biden administration’s extension of the U.S. nuclear umbrella and establishment of a bilateral nuclear-sharing group with Seoul.

Enemy within: Ukraine’s security forces battle Russian spies

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and all Russia attend a prayer service following an inauguration ceremony at the Kremlin's Annunciation Cathedral in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, May 7, 2024. (Alexey Maishev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Ukraine’s besieged security service is working overtime to catch the enemy from within — a network of Russian saboteurs, collaborators and secret sympathizers — as Moscow’s remorseless offensive gains ground in the east. Ukraine and Russia have cultural, linguistic, economic and religious ties dating back centuries, so there’s no neat boundary between pro- and anti-Russian populations along the more than 600-mile front line.

Threat Status Special Correspondent Guillaume Ptak offers an in-depth dispatch from the front, examining an Oct. 16 video shared with The Washington Times by Ukraine’s SBU security service that purportedly shows a secretive arrest operation carried out against a suspected Russian spy in the Donetsk region.

Posing as a volunteer of a group working with the U.N. World Food Program, the man had reportedly been traveling around the besieged Donetsk city of Pokrovsk under the cover of delivering humanitarian aid to residents. Kyiv officials say he was using his position to spy on Ukrainian defenses and troop concentrations and passing the information to Russia’s Federal Security Service, the FSB.

Senators probe TSA’s facial recognition technology

FILE - The Transportation Security Administration's new facial recognition technology is seen at a Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport security checkpoint, April 26, 2023, in Glen Burnie, Md. A bipartisan group of senators wants restrictions on the use of facial recognition technology by the TSA, saying they're concerned about travelers' privacy and civil liberties.(AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson, File)

Twelve senators are urging the Department of Homeland Security’s top watchdog to probe the Transportation Security Administration’s facial recognition technology, as many Americans prepare to travel for the busy holiday season.

The bipartisan Senate coalition includes some unlikely allies worried about the TSA’s conduct, including Sens. Ted Cruz, Texas Republican, and Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democrat.

The TSA has tested the technology on passengers for credential authentication, and the senators say the agency reportedly plans to spread the tech to more than 430 airports nationwide. National Security Tech Correspondent Ryan Lovelace takes a closer look, noting a letter the senators wrote last week to DHS Inspector General Joseph Cuffari demanding “thorough oversight” of the TSA’s deployment of the technology from both an “authorities and privacy perspective.”

Opinion: Xi Jinping’s four red lines ring false

China's Xi Jinping's four red lines illustration by Greg Groesch / The Washington Times

Miles Yu writes that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s delivery of non-negotiables to President Biden at the APEC summit this month purportedly delineates areas where Beijing rejects external interference: Taiwan, democracy and human rights, its political system and its development rights.

“Yet beneath the veneer of sovereign dignity lies a web of fear, contradictions and brazen disregard for global norms,” according to Mr. Yu, who asserts that Mr. Xi’s delivery of the red lines “underscores the staggering hypocrisy and insecurity in the Chinese Communist Party.”

“Mr. Xi’s insistence that Taiwan is a ‘core interest’ tied to China’s sovereignty is a calculated distortion and a fallacy,” writes Mr. Yu, who heads the China Center at the Hudson Institute. “Taiwan’s status as an independent and democratic nation, formally the Republic of China, predates the Chinese Communist Party’s rise to power. … By framing Taiwan’s independence as a ‘red line,’ Mr. Xi masks his fear of the Chinese government’s crumbling legitimacy and the erosion of his narrative of China’s invincibility.”

Opinion: Will Qatar join the fight against terrorism?

Qatar and Hamas terrorists illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Qatar’s reported deliberations over expelling Hamas political leadership from their base in Doha mark a “pivotal moment” in Hamas’ war of aggression against Israel, according to Gabriel Scheinmann, who notes that the decision comes after the “horrific revelation that Hamas executed hostages, including dual U.S.-Israeli citizen Hersh Goldberg-Polin, in late August and the seemingly moribund hostage negotiations.”

“Whether Qatar’s ultimatum to Hamas is real remains to be seen, but expulsion is insufficient. The gravity of Hamas’ crimes and Qatar’s partnership in counterterrorism demand more than exile: These leaders must be arrested, extradited to Israel or the United States, and sent to Guantanamo Bay to face justice,” writes Mr. Scheinmann, the executive director of the Alexander Hamilton Society.

“Qatar’s role in hosting Hamas’ political bureau has been a diplomatic liability. Expelling these leaders might repair some damage, but exile merely shifts the problem elsewhere,” he writes. “Arresting and extraditing Hamas leaders would be a defining moment for Qatar.”

Events on our radar

• Dec. 2 — The Troublemaker: How Jimmy Lai Became a Billionaire, Hong Kong’s Greatest Dissident, and China’s Most Feared Critic, American Enterprise Institute

• Dec. 3 — In Competition, Crisis and Conflict: Building America’s Warfighting Navy with CNO Lisa Franchetti, Stimson Center

• Dec. 3 — Addressing Maduro’s Oil Lifeline in the Wake of a Stolen Election, Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Dec. 4 — El Salvador’s Economic Evolution: Investment Insights and Opportunities, Atlantic Council

• Dec. 4 — Alaska’s Strategic Importance for the Indo-Pacific, Hudson Institute

• Dec. 5 — China’s Role in Indonesia’s Clean Energy Transition, Wilson Center

• Dec. 7 — 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum, Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.