Skip to content
TRENDING:
Advertisement

The Washington Times

Threat Status for Monday, November 25, 2024. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

The question buzzing in national security circles is whether President-elect Donald Trump’s hands are truly tied by a rarely-invoked 1799 federal law that bars him from engaging in high-stakes diplomatic negotiations with foreign leaders before being inaugurated. 

… There’s no doubt that Russian intelligence and Russian President Vladimir Putin are keenly aware of this law — the Logan Act — and the dilemma it now presents for Mr. Trump and his team of national security nominees as they wrestle with how to address wars in the Mideast and in Ukraine that are escalating because of policies pushed by the Biden administration on its way out the door.

… Mr. Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz, says the president-elect fully understands the gravity of the moment and how rapidly the international landscape is shifting.

… H.R. McMaster, who served as national security adviser during Mr. Trump’s first term, says he hopes the incoming administration sees the “obvious connections” between what’s happening in Ukraine and the “axis of aggressors” of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

… Sources say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved the emerging cease-fire deal with Hezbollah “in principle.”

… This is why cease-fire talks in the Israel-Hezbollah war have been stuck.

… Iran is now preparing to accelerate its uranium-enrichment operations — the process for developing material for nuclear bombs — despite sharp criticism from the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog.

… The Pentagon says mysterious drones were spotted near three military bases used by American forces in England.

… And the capital of nuclear-armed Pakistan has been rocked by clashes between protesters and police, as thousands of supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan defy a lockdown. 

South Korea is being drawn into the Ukraine war

In this photo provided by Ukraine's 24th Mechanised Brigade press service, servicemen of the 24th Mechanised Brigade fire 2s5 self-propelled 152mm howitzer towards Russian positions near Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. (Oleg Petrasiuk/Ukrainian 24th Mechanised Brigade via AP)

The Kremlin is threatening to retaliate against South Korea if Seoul begins shipping weaponry directly to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s growing deployment of troops to reinforce the Russian military in the war. The Kremlin warned over the weekend that it will respond “in every way that we find necessary” if South Korea sends arms to Ukraine, underscoring how Russia’s war of aggression is increasingly linked to a delicate geopolitical web that threatens to destabilize an already volatile Northeast Asia.

The escalating war is now pulling in other nations in a way that will provide a crucial early test for Mr. Trump, who is set to take office in January and has vowed to end the war quickly. South Korea is already providing weapons to U.S. allies, but has thus far adhered to a policy of not directly arming Ukraine. Officials in Seoul say that the policy is now under review. They worry Russia may reward North Korea by giving it sophisticated weapons technologies that can boost the North’s nuclear and missile programs that target South Korea.

Mr. Waltz, Mr. Trump’s nominee for White House national security adviser, said over the weekend that the president-elect fully grasps how rapidly the international landscape is shifting. “North Korea has made this move. We have made a move. Russia has now responded. Iran is involved. South Korea is thinking about getting involved. Our allies have now extended the range of their missiles as well,” said Mr. Waltz. “We need to bring this to a responsible end. We need to restore deterrence, restore peace and get ahead of this escalation ladder rather than responding to it.”

Russia and North Korea have 'seized the initiative'

FILE - Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un pose for a photo during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. (Kristina Kormilitsyna, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

North Korea’s movement of military forces to fight at the Russia-Ukraine border represents the the largest deployment of East Asian troops to Europe since Genghis Khan in the 13th century, according to Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon, who emphasizes on the latest episode of the Threat Status weekly podcast how the development is “changing the global security dynamics.”

The arrival of the North Korean forces puts meat on the bones of the growing alignment “between China, Russia, North Korea and Iran,” says Mr. Salmon. “These continental powers in the center of the Eurasian continent are being countered by the democracies on the eastern and western edges of it: …NATO in the West and … a coalition, perhaps, of democracies in the East.”

“NATO and has been talking a great deal about sort of building links with Japan, South Korea and Australia,” he says, adding that while the democracies use U.S. standard NATO weaponry, what Russia and North Korea are doing is particularly significant in that their troops are now “fighting side by side” on the ground. … I think [they’ve] seized the initiative in this situation.”

USAID paid for meals that went to Syrian terrorists

In this photo posted on the Twitter page of Syria's al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front on March 28, 2015, a fighter from Syria's al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front holds his group flag as he stands in front of the governor building in Idlib province, north Syria. Intermingled among 3 million civilians under siege in the Syrian government's assault on the last opposition stronghold are tens of thousands of al-Qaida-linked fighters and other militants who came from around the world to take part in the country's civil war. (Al-Nusra Front Twitter page via AP) **FILE**

Americans paid for hundreds of thousands of meals that went to al Qaeda-affiliated fighters in Syria, federal prosecutors revealed last week in announcing charges against the nongovernmental organization employee who they say was responsible for the diversion. Mahmoud Al Hafyan, who ran the organization’s Syrian division, skimmed as much as $10 million worth of meals funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.

The meals were supposed to go to Syrian civil war refugees. Mr. Al Hafyan allowed members of the Nusra Front, an al Qaeda-linked terrorist organization, to collect the meals, U.S. investigators said as they unsealed an indictment last week. 

Mr. Al Hafyan doctored the books to hide the diversions, but authorities said two whistleblowers reported him. They suggested he then faked a kidnapping to argue that he was forced to divert the food kits, but the details and timing undercut his claim. All told, 380,000 meal kits were diverted to the Nusra Front in what authorities called a shocking abuse of U.S. taxpayers’ generosity.

U.S. special operations forces must standardize to cut noncombat accidents, GAO says

Green Berets assigned to 3rd Special Forces Group (Airborne) move to load onto a UH-60 Blackhawk helicopter for extraction during a training event near Nellis Air Force Base, Nev. Aug. 27, 2019.  (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Steven Lewis)  ** FILE **

Special operations troops such as Army Green Berets or Navy SEALs prepare for the most dangerous missions in the U.S. military through high-risk training that would wear down the most rugged outdoor adventurer. But serious training accidents involving America’s commandos have raised questions about whether safety is sufficiently stressed. 

In a new survey, the U.S. Government Accountability Office said about 80% of more than 3,600 reported on-duty, noncombat accidents in 2012 through 2022 involving special operations forces, or SOF, personnel happened in training activities. Almost half of that number involved parachute and combat dive training.

Pentagon Correspondent Mike Glenn offers a deeper look at the GAO’s findings. “The data show that over 80% of training accidents were reported as due to human error,” analysts at the watchdog agency said in their report. “Factors that were commonly present and contributed to these accidents included failure to adhere to training standards and complacency.”

Opinion: Trump should direct CIA to help overthrow Iran’s terrorist regime

Trump and Iran illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

The incoming Trump administration should focus its challenge to Tehran through Iran’s ethnic minorities, according to columnist Jed Babbin, who highlights videos in which two leaders of two ethnic groups — Aref Al Kaabi of the Ahwazis and Hyrbyair Marri of the Balochis — have pleaded for independence and denounced the ayatollahs.

“Combined with the other two major ethnic groups — the Kurds and the Azeris — and given weapons, intelligence and funding, they could topple the Tehran regime,” writes Mr. Babbin.

“What Mr. Trump needs to do is to sign a top-secret presidential decision directive requiring that the CIA give the Balochis, the Ahwazis, the Kurds and the Azeris the help they need to overthrow the Iranian regime,” he writes. “Mr. Trump could thus propel a revolution against the regime and should do so quickly.”

Events on our radar

• Dec. 2 — The Troublemaker: How Jimmy Lai Became a Billionaire, Hong Kong’s Greatest Dissident, and China’s Most Feared Critic, American Enterprise Institute

• Dec. 4 — El Salvador’s Economic Evolution: Investment Insights and Opportunities, Atlantic Council

• Dec. 4 — Alaska’s Strategic Importance for the Indo-Pacific, Hudson Institute

• Dec. 5 — China’s Role in Indonesia’s Clean Energy Transition, Wilson Center

• Dec. 7 — 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum, Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute

Thanks for reading Threat Status. Don’t forget to share it with your friends, who can sign up here. And listen to our weekly podcast available here or wherever you get your podcasts.

If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.