China’s military power poses an acute threat to the United States and Beijing’s forces could now potentially defeat the U.S. military in a future regional conflict, according to a congressional commission report made public Tuesday. Two decades of large-scale military expansion have given China a formidable force of missiles, ships, aircraft and other systems for a future Indo-Pacific conflict, states the 793-page report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

“As a result, U.S. forces and bases in the region would face a significant threat from the [People’s Liberation Army] in any regional contingency involving treaty allies and/or security partners, and the outcome of any such conflict is far from certain,” the report states.

The panel’s report adds that China’s communist leaders view the U.S. military bases and activities in the region as “hostile” and “threatening,” and have been preparing for a future U.S. intervention should China take military action against Taiwan or in the South China Sea. National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz offers a lengthy analysis of the document.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has formally lowered the threshold for his country’s use of nuclear weapons in a crisis, just days after the Biden administration shifted U.S. policy to allow Ukrainian military forces to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with the American-supplied Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS.

While U.S. officials say the Kremlin’s move had been in the works for months, the timing following the U.S. policy shift on Ukraine has sparked unease in Washington. The new Russian doctrine allows for a potential nuclear response by Moscow even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power. Moscow’s adjusted posture is clearly focused on Ukraine, which has the support of the U.S. and other nuclear-armed nations of NATO, such as France and the United Kingdom.

State Department spokesman Matt Miller said Tuesday that Mr. Putin’s nuclear doctrine shift “just highlights Russia’s hypocrisy.”

“Russia is suggesting here that they would use or could use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state if they undertake the same kind of aggression that Russia itself is inflicting upon Ukraine and its people,” Mr. Miller said. “So … we will continue to call on Russia to stop its bellicose and irresponsible rhetoric.”

The Venezuelan gang known as Tren de Aragua is setting up shop around the Washington, D.C., region, according to an internal Department of Homeland Security (DHS) memo that says the criminal organization known for trafficking humans and targeting police officers has established a presence in the District of Columbia and parts of central and Northern Virginia.

The Nov. 14 DHS memo, which leaked this week, said it is “highly probable” Tren de Aragua (TDA) operatives will exercise greater influence in the region as more Venezuelans take up residence. U.S. authorities say the group has established outposts in metropolitan areas nationwide.

“Fully assessing the extent of TDA’s threat and areas of impact presents challenges to law enforcement due to difficulty confirming criminal actors as TDA,” according to the internal DHS memo, which was first reported by the New York Post. The newspaper embedded the document on its website.

Kim Jong-un knows that his alliance with Russia and its support for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine “will prevent North Korea from receiving the international development assistance it wants and needs, and the international legitimacy it seeks,” writes Joseph R. DeTrani. “Aligning with a pariah state — Russia — that will again abandon North Korea, as it did after the implosion of the Soviet Union, is not what Mr. Kim wants.”

“The incoming Trump administration has the opportunity to reverse the recent negative developments with North Korea,” writes Mr. DeTrani, a former senior U.S. intelligence official and opinion contributor to Threat Status.  

“Given the relationship Mr. Trump has with Mr. Kim,” he writes of President-elect Donald Trump, “it’s likely that North Korea would respond favorably to an overture that proposes the eventual lifting of sanctions on an action-for-action basis as North Korea halts the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons and halts nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches.”

Mr. Trump’s nominees thus far to fill top national security and foreign policy posts “understand that ‘peace through strength’ is preferable to ‘war through weakness,’” writes Threat Status opinion contributor Clifford D. May.

“That contrast has been vividly demonstrated over the past four years,” writes Mr. May, who asserts that “we won’t need to go to war with an enemy we’ve already deterred. And if we do get into a fight, our enemies shouldn’t have a chance.” Mr. May predicts that “Rep. Mike Waltz, a former Green Beret, will serve [Mr. Trump] well as national security adviser. He has said, ‘We are in a Cold War with the Chinese Communist Party.’ That’s the reality.”

“Sen. Marco Rubio for secretary of state is another solid choice,” writes Mr. May. “He also understands that Xi Jinping intends to replace American leadership in the world with a neo-Maoist international order.”

• Nov. 20 — Venezuela: Policy Recommendations for a New Administration, Wilson Center

• Nov. 20 — Contemporary India: From Domestic Politics to Foreign Policy and Beyond, Hoover Institution at Stanford

• Nov. 21 — Big Ideas for America’s New National Security Team, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 21 — Strategic Challenges Facing the U.S.-South Korea Alliance, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 22 — Technology and Maritime Security Cooperation between NATO and the Indo-Pacific, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 22-24 — Halifax International Security Forum

• Dec. 7 — 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum, Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute