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U.S. intelligence warnings about foreign meddling in the election loom as America votes.

… Many Ukrainians see troubled ties with Washington whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris prevails in the presidential election.

… Mr. Trump says he’ll order Mexico’s president to stop the flow of illegal migrants across the U.S. border or face a 25% tariff on all Mexican goods if he wins a second term.

… A tiny village in India where Ms. Harris has ancestral roots is praying for her victory.

… U.S. officials say that North Korean troops will be “legitimate military targets” if they engage in combat on Russia’s behalf.

… A senior Iranian military leader and his pilot died when their light gyroplane crashed in the country’s restive Sistan and Baluchestan province.

… An Iran-backed Iraqi militia launched a drone attack into northern Israel early on Tuesday.

… Raids in the West Bank suggest that Israel is targeting armed Palestinian fighters in the occupied territory, even as major operations continue in Gaza and Lebanon.

… And Scale AI has introduced “Defense Llama,” a large language model the San Francisco-based firm says is “available exclusively in controlled U.S. government environments” and “fine-tuned” to support national security missions.

Intel warnings on foreign meddling to be tested as U.S. votes

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian pose for a photo at their meeting in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, on Oct. 11, 2024. (Alexander Shcherbak, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

With Election Day finally here, U.S. intelligence officials have assessed that China, Iran and Russia “will probably refrain from disruptive attacks that seek to alter vote counts because they almost certainly would not be able to tangibly impact the outcome of the federal election without detection; such activity would carry a risk of retaliation, and there is no indication they attempted such attacks during the past two election cycles.”

That said, concern is high within the intelligence community that these adversaries — and untold numbers of others — may instead choose from a menu of other options to spawn fear, uncertainty and doubt among voters during the immediate post-election period, especially if the vote is close.

National Security Tech Correspondent Ryan Lovelace offers a deeper look at the slate of election meddling warnings publicized over recent weeks and months, with a particular focus on China, Iran and Russia. He reports that U.S. intelligence analysts have also expressed concern that China may attempt to influence down-ballot races.

“China is seeking to influence congressional races with candidates — regardless of party affiliation — perceived by Beijing to threaten its core interests, especially in relation to Taiwan,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in an election security update on Oct. 7.

Ukrainians see trouble with Washington whether Trump or Harris prevails

Ukrainian serviceman of Khartia brigade carries shell to the D-30 Howitzer in order to fire towards Russian positions in Kharkiv region, Ukraine, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Alex Babenko)

Americans who are unhappy with their choices in the presidential election should spend some time in Ukraine. The anxious nation doesn’t get to choose between a continuation of the Biden-Harris administration, which has been a source of mounting frustration, and a Trump administration, which promises perhaps more ominous policy shifts.

Threat Status Special Correspondent Guillaume Ptak has a dispatch from Kyiv. With battlefield losses mounting and Russia grinding away at defenses in Donbas, he writes, Ukrainians are looking on anxiously at the election in the U.S., their most critical ally. The result could decide the course of the country’s 2½-year-old war with Russia and seal its fate as an independent nation.

Ukrainians say overwhelmingly that they will spend Election Day glued to TV screens or their phones and wait with bated breath. The result of the presidential election will largely determine the fate of their besieged country and the security architecture of Europe for decades to come.

North Korean troops who fight for Russia are ‘legitimate military targets’

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un pose for a photo during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. (Kristina Kormilitsyna, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

U.S. officials say that North Korean troops will be “legitimate military targets” if they fight on Russia’s behalf. The Pentagon said Monday that roughly 10,000 North Korean military troops have deployed inside Russia’s occupied Kursk region and are making their way to the front lines, although it remains unclear whether the North Koreans will fight as part of their own units or fill holes in decimated Russian Army companies and battalions.

Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, a Defense Department spokesman, couldn’t confirm reports that some North Korean troops have already taken part in combat missions on Russia’s behalf against Ukrainian forces who occupy a part of Kursk. “Should those troops engage in combat support operations against Ukraine, they would become legitimate military targets,” Gen. Ryder said.

The North Korean deployment has prompted South Korea to consider directly arming Ukrainian forces, a move that would represent a significant policy shift for Seoul. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul called on the United Nations on Monday to deliver “stern” messages for an immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops from Russia and the cessation of their “illegal” military cooperation.

Africa exclusive: Botswana's new president says major change is coming

Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) presidential candidate Duma Boko speaks to a journalist after casting his vote during the elections in Gaborone, Botswana, Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe)

Fresh from a historic upset that ousted the ruling party that has been in power since independence six decades ago, new Botswana President Duma Boko tells The Washington Times in an exclusive interview that he wants to follow a neutral foreign policy but a disruptive agenda closer to home.

Botswana is a key U.S. ally in Africa and has long been seen as a beacon of democratic stability on the continent. The biggest challenge for Mr. Boko, a 54-year-old Harvard-trained human rights lawyer, will be youth unemployment. One out of four young Botswanans under 30 are out of work as diamond prices worldwide have slumped. His government will also have to reach a deal with the London-based Anglo American and its subsidiary de Beers which controls the diamond sales that account for a majority of the country’s exports.

During his campaign, Mr. Boko pledged to form a global consortium to buy de Beers and move its headquarters to the capital, Gaborone, describing the diamond giant’s role in the economy as “corporate colonialism when a firm in London holds so much sway over a nation in Africa.” He also expressed a desire to use revenue from diamonds and the other key exports, coal and beef, to diversify the economy. “We must review the laws on foreign investment,” he said.

Opinion: Two-state solution is possible for Israel, Palestinians

Two-state solution for Israel and Palestinians illustration by Greg Groesch / The Washington Times

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty writes that Israel, “regrettably,” continues to espouse the same “shortsighted and misguided approach that has gripped its security doctrine for decades: that overwhelming force and coercion will guarantee its security and will eventually culminate in despair among Palestinians to exercise their right to self-determination.”

“To achieve peace and security, we must embrace a well-defined and calibrated process to move Palestinians away from despair and misery and offer alternatively and ultimately a future of hope and dignity — a future where they can freely govern in a sovereign state of their own,” Mr. Abdelatty writes.

“As such, we must address the root cause of the conflict and not any symptom,” the foreign minister writes. “Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories must end, and Palestinians must exercise their right to self-determination in full conformity with the U.N. Charter and international law.”

Events on our radar

• Nov. 7 — Navigating the Geoeconomic Shifts in the South Caucasus, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• Nov. 7 — First in War, First in Peace: Building Post-Conflict Stability and Democracy, U.S. Institute of Peace

• Nov. 8-10 — IISS Prague Defense Summit 2024, International Institute for Strategic Studies

• Nov. 11 — Veterans Day Ceremony & Wreath Presentation, Korean War Veterans Memorial Foundation

• Nov. 12 — America’s Foreign Policy Future: A Post-Election Analysis, Stimson Center

• Nov. 13 — Competing with China on Critical Minerals, Hudson Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.