National Security Agency Research Director Gilbert Herrera gave a rare glimpse this week into the agency’s pursuit of research that could help produce an “economic weapon of mass destruction.”  In remarks to the Institute for Electrical and Electronics Engineers’ Military Communications Conference, Mr. Herrera explained the NSA’s decision to “fund research that could be used to create a computer that could threaten the global economy.”

“By sponsoring research, we can better gauge what is attainable and by when, and on that basis can estimate the potential availability of a quantum computer and prepare for that eventuality,” he said in remarks shared by the NSA with Threat Status. “This way, we can be prepared for the threat posed by a quantum computer while simultaneously advancing the fundamental science that will lead to a useful quantum computer for the benefit of everyone.”

Concern has been rising for months among security officials worldwide over the potential arrival of a super code-breaking “cryptanalytically” relevant quantum computer. Analysts say such a computer could bypass the security of sensitive systems and make digital defenses for everything from state secrets to financial transactions totally worthless. 

Mr. Herrera expressed skepticism over predictions that a useful quantum computer will arrive anytime soon. He said that publicly reported estimates of the machine’s anticipated arrival are often more optimistic than what he hears from scientists and engineers engaged in technical discussions.

The Chinese navy has built three new cruise missile-firing nuclear submarines in what U.S. defense officials say is a significant advance in its attack submarine program. National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz reports that the new Shang III attack submarines are in the water undergoing sea trials and certification, according to defense officials familiar with reports on the submarines.

Operational deployment of the Shang III submarines is expected within the next year or two, the officials said, speaking on background. “This is especially important as these are the first cruise missile submarines in the Chinese inventory,” one of the officials said.

The new Shang III SSGNs will join six other currently deployed nuclear attack submarines in the class that the Chinese military calls Type-093. They are considered China’s most potent attack submarines and likely are being used to protect nuclear missile submarines.

China is expressing outrage over the Biden administration’s finalization of a new rule prohibiting Americans from participating in transactions that could bolster Beijing’s development of advanced technologies, especially ones that would bolster the country’s military.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced the development Monday, essentially implementing an executive order that President Biden signed last year to clamp down on transactions to “countries of concern in three sectors: semiconductors and microelectronics; quantum information technologies; and artificial intelligence. Treasury officials said that in addition to mainland China, the “special administrative” regions of Hong Kong and Macau fall under the “countries of concern” designation.

Beijing has responded with outrage: “China deplores and rejects the U.S.’s final rule to curb investment in China,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Tuesday. “China has protested to the U.S. and will take all measures necessary to firmly defend its lawful rights and interests.”

The new rule, which requires U.S. nationals to notify the Treasury Department of transactions involving technologies that could threaten national security, is slated to take effect in January.

U.S. spy agencies face a transitional challenge amid the emergence of dramatically advancing technology, says Mr. Warner, chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. “Our spying ability, in terms of traditional spying, on spying on another nation-state or another nation’s military — we’re pretty good,” the Virginia Democrat said in an exclusive interview with the Threat Status Influencers video series.

“I believe national security is much more than who has the most tanks and guns and ships and planes,” he said. “It’s, ‘Who’s going to win AI? Who’s going to win quantum computing? Who’s going to win a whole series of areas around bio?’ You combine artificial intelligence and synthetic biology and you’ve got some great opportunities but some real potential negative opportunities. How do we align our intelligence community to go after that kind of spying as well? There I think we’ve clearly got gaps.”

Mr. Warner also shed light on debate among spy agencies over how to harness AI.

“Do we need a single large-language model for all of the information we collect? Because we collect so much communications from NSA, … spies from the CIA may collect thumb drives, our satellites collect so many images,” he said. “How do you just process all that in an appropriate way? Initially, we thought there might be just one [model]. Then each agency thought they would develop their own, and now we’re maybe back to having a discussion about one.”

By the end of this decade, artificial intelligence agents will be able to communicate with us in conversational English and each other to make decisions, take actions, negotiate on our behalf, achieve goals and, if we allow it, order our lives, writes economist and national columnist Peter Morici.

While there are “enormous safety and cost-saving possibilities” on the horizon, Mr. Morici argues that “with approaching prescience apparently comes a form of free will that is just as corruptible as in humans.”

“Just like employees, AI agents given full latitude to maximize publicly available knowledge can’t be policed 100%,” he writes, asserting that “the potential legal liabilities when AI agents are allowed to act on behalf of humans may be limitless.”

• Oct. 31 — The War on America’s 2024 Elections: How U.S. Adversaries Seek to Divide Americans and Undermine Trust, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Nov. 1 — Countering Authoritarian Regimes’ New Tactics in Latin America, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 7 — The United States Role in Responsibly Advancing Digital Connectivity, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Nov. 7 — First in War, First in Peace: Building Post-Conflict Stability and Democracy, U.S. Institute of Peace

• Nov. 8-10 — IISS Prague Defense Summit 2024, International Institute for Strategic Studies

• Nov. 22-24 — Halifax International Security Forum

• Dec. 7 — 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum, Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute