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The Washington Times

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Vice President Kamala Harris says she would never allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. But it’s not clear what she would do to stop it.

… In hosting the annual BRICS summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin is seizing the opportunity to showcase his defiance of U.S.-led efforts to isolate his regime as punishment for the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago.

… The Chinese military began live-fire drills off the coast of its southern Fujian province facing Taiwan on Tuesday. Last week, the People’s Liberation Army surrounded the island democracy with massive air and sea military exercises.

… The Navy hailed two combat-experienced female aviators who died when their jet fighter crashed in Washington state last week, calling them trailblazers and role models.

… Threat Status has an in-depth breakdown of the positions of former President Donald Trump and Ms. Harris on America’s immigration crisis, a key issue for voters in the 2024 presidential race.

… And Peru’s former President Alejandro Toledo was sentenced to 20 years and six months in prison in a case linked to a major corruption scandal.

Does Harris have a plan for Iran's nuclear program?

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks with reporters before a town hall at the Royal Oak Theatre in Royal Oak, Mich., Monday, Oct. 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

The vice president and Democratic White House hopeful insists she’d never allow the Iranians to get a nuclear bomb, but it’s not entirely clear what she’d do to stop them. Threat Status has a deep dive on Ms. Harris’ position on Tehran and its accelerating nuclear program, which is now capable of producing a weapon in as little as one week.

Critics say the general approach of Democrats over the past decade — a willingness to negotiate with the theocratic regime in Tehran and offer economic sanctions relief as a bargaining chip — would almost surely continue under a Harris administration. In fact, some analysts contend that the leadership of the Democratic Party, including President Biden and Ms. Harris, has essentially accepted Iran as a nuclear weapons state, despite whatever they say publicly on the matter.

It’s a key foreign policy issue for both Ms. Harris and Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, especially given the growing conflict across the Middle East between Israel and Iran and Tehran’s network of proxies across the region. The Biden administration still hopes to contain the widening Mideast war, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday on his 11th visit to the region over just the past year. Mr. Blinken is aiming to forge a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and to keep the Israel-Hezbollah conflict from erupting into a full-scale ground war.

But Israel isn’t letting up. The Israeli Defense Forces reportedly carried out a dozen airstrikes in Beirut on Tuesday, targeting a Hezbollah stronghold in the Lebanese capital. The IDF said that the targets included a central base of Hezbollah’s naval unit, where Hezbollah stored military speedboats, a training center and an area to conduct experiments. The speedboats were intended to be used in attacks on Israeli Navy vessels and against naval and strategic targets within Israel’s territorial waters, the IDF said.

U.S. investigates leak, Israel arrests Iranian spies

Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept rockets that were launched from Lebanon, as seen from Haifa, northern Israel, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)

The Israel-Iran conflict is playing out in other arenas, some far from the physical battlefield. Military Correspondent Mike Glenn has been tracking the arrest by Israeli authorities of seven Israeli citizens who are accused of carrying out hundreds of espionage missions on behalf of Iran, including gathering intelligence on sensitive military sites inside the country and identifying potential human targets for Tehran.

The suspects are all Jewish residents of Haifa and other areas of northern Israel. They include an Israeli soldier who had deserted the military and two minors.

And here at home, the Biden administration says it is investigating the online leak of classified U.S. documents assessing Israel’s plans for a retaliatory strike against the Islamic republic. The documents, which appear to be genuine, are attributed to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency, and were posted to the Telegram messaging app over the weekend.

Putin embraces diplomatic limelight as leaders of expanded BRICS gather in Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends his meeting with President of the New Development Bank Dilma Rousseff on the sidelines of BRICS Summit at Kazan Kremlin in Kazan, Russia, Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (Alexander Nemenov, Pool Photo via AP)

The Russian president is hosting the annual summit of BRICS, a high-prestige stage that offers him an opportunity to showcase his defiance of U.S.-led efforts to isolate his regime and punish the Kremlin for its decision to invade Ukraine more than two years ago.

Mr. Putin’s posturing is clearly meant to send a reassuring signal to average Russians that even though powerful and prosperous democracies in North America, Europe and East Asia have turned the diplomatic and economic screws on Russia since the Ukraine invasion, their nation is neither contained nor ostracized.  

The sixteenth gathering of a group that originally included just Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, runs from Oct. 22-24 in the Russian city of Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan. Mr. Putin will welcome both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, leaders of the world’s most populous countries and, respectively, the world’s second- and fifth-largest economies.

The grouping has grown markedly in recent years: The leaders of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Turkey, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates are coming to Kazan, though Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, citing health concerns, will attend via video conference.

In all, up to 32 foreign delegations, including those from rising economies such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, are anticipated. There is even speculation that North Korea, whose relations with Russia have been warming rapidly, may send a delegation.

Threat Status Podcast: 'Axis of authoritarians' getting more powerful

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands as they pose for photos during their meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, July 3, 2024. (Sergey Guneyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

As Mr. Putin courts new allies, analysts warn that the so-called “axis of authoritarians” — traditionally defined as Russia, China, North Korea and Iran — is growing, becoming more dangerous and is already in the process of sucking more countries into its anti-American orbit.

Clifford D. May, president and founder of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a Threat Status contributor, joined the Threat Status Podcast recently and said that the dangerous alliance of U.S. adversaries is getting more powerful.

“Yes, this axis is also now including Caracas, Venezuela, very close relations with Russia, with China, with Tehran, and Havana,” Mr. May said, arguing that Venezuela and Cuba could already be considered a part of the axis.

South Korea says it may send weapons to Ukraine

Soldiers march in a parade for the 70th anniversary of North Korea's founding day in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Sept. 9, 2018. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)

South Korean officials warned Tuesday that the country may consider supplying weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea allegedly dispatching troops to Russia. Such a step would be a major departure for Seoul, which so far has steadfastly resisted sending direct military aid to Ukraine for its war with Russia.

But the news that North Korean troops could soon be sent to Ukraine to fight alongside the Russian army has changed the calculus in South Korea. Beyond the symbolism of North Korean and Russian soldiers fighting together, South Korean officials also worry that Russia may reward North Korea by giving it sophisticated weapons technologies that can boost the North’s nuclear and missile programs.

Events on our radar

• Oct. 23 — European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Europe’s Economic Outlook, Atlantic Council

• Oct. 23 — Explosive Triangle: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

• Oct. 23 — Jake Sullivan on the U.S. International Economic Agenda: An Update, Brookings Institution 

• Oct. 24 — U.S.-Japan Relations and Prospects for Multilateral Economic Cooperation, Wilson Center

• Oct. 25 — The Road Ahead: Israelis and Palestinians One Year After Oct. 7, Center for a New American Security

• Nov. 8-10 — IISS Prague Defense Summit 2024, International Institute for Strategic Studies

• Nov. 22-24 — Halifax International Security Forum

• Dec. 7 — 2024 Reagan National Defense Forum, Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Institute

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.