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Israel says it has begun a “limited” invasion of southern Lebanon.

… South Korea just unveiled its most powerful ballistic missile that it says can reach North Korea’s underground bunkers.

… The Chinese submarine that sank while under construction was a new hybrid nuclear-conventional attack boat.

… Russia is calling up 133,000 men for compulsory military service through January to help replenish its ranks in Ukraine.

… The M23 armed rebel group in Congo generates around $300,000 a month in revenue through its control of a mining area that holds deposits of tantalum, a rare metal used in the production of smartphones and computers.

… Secretary of State Antony Blinken writes in Foreign Affairs that the Russia-Iran-China-North Korea partnership seeks to “erode the foundations of the United States’ strength: its military and technological superiority, its dominant currency, and its unmatched network of alliances.”

… Gabriel Scheinmann writes in a memorandum to former president Donald Trump that the four nations are forming a “near-contiguous entente” that “already wields greater power, controls twice the territory, possesses access to significantly more resources, and exhibits greater cooperation than the Axis Powers did during World War II.”

… And in his first public remarks since being released from a British prison in June, WikiLeaks’ founder Julian Assange said Tuesday that he pleaded “guilty to journalism” in order to be freed.

Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon begins

Israeli army tanks manouver in a staging area in northern Israel near the Israel-Lebanon border, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)

Israel announced the start of a “limited” invasion of southern Lebanon on Tuesday, with a top military spokesman saying Israeli troops were conducting “localized ground raids” on Hezbollah positions. Hezbollah dismissed the announcement as “false,” but said its own forces were ready for “direct confrontation” should the Israeli military move towards them.

The tense developments came a day after the Pentagon said it is sending “a few thousand” fresh American military personnel to the Middle East from multiple Air Force jet fighter squadrons to bolster security in the region and be prepared to defend Israel. U.S. officials said the forces will come from American F-15E, F-16, A-10, and F-22 fighter and support units.

Anticipating rocket attacks from Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, the Israeli army announced new restrictions on public gatherings and closed beaches in Israel. Israeli artillery units, meanwhile, pounded targets in southern Lebanon through the night Monday and the sounds of airstrikes were heard throughout Beirut.

Sunken Chinese sub was new hybrid nuclear-conventional attack boat

This satellite image from Planet Labs PBC shows what appears to be a sunken Chinese submarine at a shipyard near Wuhan, China, June 15, 2024. (Planet Labs PBC via AP) ** FILE **

China’s naval buildup now includes a new class of attack submarine that employs both conventional and nuclear propulsion, according to U.S. defense officials. The new Zhou-class submarine was confirmed by the Pentagon last week after one of the boats was seen in satellite images partially submerged beside the pier as the result of an unknown mishap.

Pentagon analysts assess the vessel that sank near Wuhan is “a new class of nuclear submarine that is similar in size to [People’s Liberation Army] navy conventionally-powered submarines, but with a small nuclear reactor,” a U.S. defense official told reporters background.

Chinese government and military officials have been silent on the sinking mishap, a possible sign that reports about the mishap are accurate and that Beijing wants to cover up details of the incident.

Former CIA executive pushes for new ‘open source’ intelligence body

Egyptian protesters chant anti-Muslim Brotherhood slogans as they attend a rally in Tahrir Square, in Cairo, Egypt, Friday, Nov. 30, 2012. Egypt's opposition has called for a major rally Friday in Cairo's Tahrir Square, where some demonstrators have camped out in tents since last week to protest decrees that President Mohammed Morsi issued to grant himself sweeping powers. Hundreds gathered in the plaza for traditional Friday prayers, then broke into chants of "The people want to bring down the regime!" ó echoing the refrain of the Arab Spring revolts, but this time against a democratically elected leader. Other cities around Egypt braced for similar protests.(AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

An influential former CIA executive is working to build momentum in Washington for a new U.S. intelligence agency that would focus solely on commercially available data, such as content on social media and tech platforms.

Former CIA executive William “Chip” Usher issued a new call for the creation of an “Open Source Agency” in the pages of the CIA’s Studies in Intelligence journal in September, arguing that the U.S. intelligence community needs a 19th agency to reflect the realities of gathering data in today’s world.

While the CIA manages intelligence gathered by human sources and the National Security Agency collects signals intelligence amassed from electronics, the new Open Source Agency would focus on scrubbing online data sources.

Mr. Usher wrote that the federal government needs a new agency of analysts to study and acquire publicly available information (PAI) and commercially available information (CAI). An image accompanying his essay shows an existing open-source intelligence team running behind China and Russia who are chasing American tech companies such as Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta’s platforms and Elon Musk’s X, among others.

Russian military drafting another 133,000 men

In this image released by the Russian Defense Ministry on March 19, 2024, Russian soldiers participate in a military exercise somewhere in the Russian-controlled Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP, File)

The move comes as part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s use of compulsory military service to help replenish forces amid tough fighting in Ukraine and Kyiv’s ongoing push into Kursk.

Mr. Putin signed a decree on Monday asserting that military conscripts “who are not in reserve are subject to army draft from October 1 to December 31, 2024.” The decree also orders the discharge of Russian soldiers who have served their “established term of conscripted military service,” according to the official Russian TASS news service.

The latest draft order comes two weeks after Mr. Putin set a target of 1.5 million active-duty troops by the end of 2024. Military service in Russia is compulsory and draft dodging is punishable by up to two years in prison.

Opinion: Cuban regime’s interference operations target U.S.

Cuba and U.S election interference illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

Dale Bendler and Miguel Cossio argue that when FBI Director Christopher A. Wray recently named a few of the rogue states attempting to interfere in the 2024 U.S. elections, he “omitted one that has repeatedly and covertly undermined U.S. interests: Cuba, a client state of Russia’s and before that of the Soviet Union.”

Havana must be watched closely, according to Mr. Bendler, a retired CIA senior intelligence officer, and Mr. Cossio, the chief operating officer of the America CV Network. “Cuba has a long record of influence operations in the United States, and in this election, Havana prefers a victory for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump,” they write. “That is because the Democratic Obama and Biden administrations took a much softer approach toward the Cuban communist regime than the Republican Trump and Bush administrations did.”

“Cuba watchers were appreciative of the July assessment from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence … when it reported that the Cuban regime was attempting to influence the 2024 U.S. elections,” Mr. Bendler and Mr. Cossio write. “Cuba, ODNI asserted, is acting just like China, Russia and Iran and is a threat to the election security of the United States.”

Events on our radar

• Oct. 1 — Report launch | Russia’s War on Ukraine: Moscow’s Pressure Points and US Strategic Opportunities, Atlantic Council

• Oct. 1 — Accelerating U.S. Nuclear Leadership, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Oct. 2 — The 2024 Knight Forum on Geopolitics, Brookings Institution

• Oct. 2 — U.S. Strategy Since Oct. 7: Assessing the Biden Administration’s Middle East Policy One Year On, Middle East Institute

• Oct. 4 — Targeting Taiwan: Beijing’s Playbook for Economic and Cyber Warfare, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Oct. 4 — The United States and China in Latin America: Rivalry, Cooperation, or Something In-between? Florida International University and the Brookings Institution

• Oct. 5-8 — 2024 Threat Conference, The Cipher Brief

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