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Did a Chinese nuclear submarine sink while under construction, and is Beijing’s military buildup taking a hit amid China’s economic downturn?

… The Japanese warship that sailed through the Taiwan Strait for the first time this week triggered immediate pushback from China.

… Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is putting his weight behind calls for an Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire.

… Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is downplaying comments by one of his closest aides, who triggered controversy this week by suggesting Budapest would not have fought against a Russian invasion as Ukraine has done.

… European Union officials say the bloc has decided it must take more financial responsibility for what it sees as an existential threat to security in its own neighborhood as the war in Ukraine enters a critical period.

… What is Donald Trump actually saying about tariffs and how would they work if he becomes president again?

… And Threat Status joined C-SPAN’s Washington Journal this week to discuss whether China is exploiting its ties with U.S. universities to advance its own military technology.

Podcast: The perils of nation-building

A man scavenges at a garbage dump in Dili, the capital of East Timor. A decade ago, the tiny nation broke from Indonesia and has since become on the most expensive United Nations nation-building projects. Many grave challenges remain. (Associated Press) ** FILE **

Former airborne officer and veteran State Department diplomat Keith Mines contends in an exclusive interview on Martin Di Caro’s “History As It Happens” podcast that the U.S. has more nation-building successes than it receives credit for, arguing that nation-building efforts have often failed not because the U.S. stayed in a country for too long but because it left too soon.

With great hand-wringing in Washington over U.S. failures in Afghanistan as a backdrop, Mr. Mines, the author of “Why Nation-Building Matters: Political Consolidation, Building Security Forces, and Economic Development in Failed and Fragile States,” offers a philosophical perspective during the podcast interview.

“I look at nation-building as the coherence of the state and the nation. I look at the state where governing services are provided, the institutions that provide services to the people. The nation is one level above that,” says Mr. Mines, who is currently vice president of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Latin American program. “It’s the ‘blood and belonging,’ as Michael Ignatieff put it. The question is, Does the nation provide a vision for you?”

Taiwanese military report says China lacks full invasion force

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te delivers a speech as he inspects Taiwanese military in Taoyuan, Northern Taiwan, Thursday, May 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying, File)

The latest Taiwanese Defense Ministry annual military assessment concludes that the Chinese military has improved capabilities for conducting offensive landing operations on the island, but the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient forces to carry out a successful invasion, according to a copy of the report obtained by Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper.

The report contends that Chinese military drills that targeted Taiwan in May sought to promote division and confrontation in Taipei and affect the morale of the Taiwanese military and the public. The drills used the Chinese coast guard for patrols and inspections of vessels in waters east of Taiwan for the first time — apparently to test the feasibility of a potential blockade during a possible military assault on Taiwan.

China has stepped up deployments of new types of anti-ship ballistic missiles and ultra-high-speed hypersonic missiles, which will provide opportunities for strikes against foreign military forces in the seas between the Chinese coast and what Beijing calls the “second island chain” — islands stretching from Japan to Guam, the report said.

China’s military buildup proceeds despite economic downturn

Spectators wave Chinese flags as military vehicles carrying DF-41 nuclear ballistic missiles roll during a parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein) ** FILE **

China’s economic problems have slowed Beijing’s major military buildup, but the overall stockpiling of missiles, warships, aircraft and nuclear forces is continuing apace, a knowledgeable military source tells Threat Status’ Bill Gertz.

Beijing’s mounting economic problems have forced the People’s Liberation Army to begin economizing on what some military leaders have called the largest military modernization of any nation since World War II. Much of the buildup is focused on restructuring the Chinese military from a large, land-oriented armed force into a high-tech, sea power-dominated force.

Investment in the Chinese military now emphasizes producing advanced aircraft with air-launched missiles; large, diverse and sophisticated missile forces; expanded naval forces; and, increasingly, sophisticated space warfare capabilities. “That’s what we’ve seen, and we’ve seen this over years and years,” according to the military source.

It’s notable that China’s military carried out a rare flight test this week of an intercontinental ballistic missile that landed in the Pacific Ocean. It’s also worth noting that a senior U.S. defense official said this week that satellite imagery shows China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank alongside a pier while under construction.

Citing the risk of 'all-out war,' Austin pushes for Lebanon cease-fire

Smoke rises from an Israeli airstrike north of Beirut, in the village of Ras Osta, Byblos district, seen from Maaysrah, Lebanon, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Mr. Austin is joining the call for a temporary, three-week cease-fire to allow for negotiations to try to curb the growing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. He put his weight behind the cease-fire push that U.S. and French diplomats have pushed strongly this week.

Speaking on a visit to London Thursday, Mr. Austin said a diplomatic solution is the only way to ensure that displaced civilians on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border will be able to return to their homes. “Tens of thousands of Israeli and Lebanese civilians still cannot safely return home, and we now face the risk of an all-out war — another full-scale war which could be devastating for both Israel and Lebanon,” the defense secretary said.

Opinion: Russian propaganda is having an impact

Russian-induced nuclear war psychosis and the White House illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

The influence of Russian propaganda in conservative circles is real, according to Steven Moore, who writes that polling from his own organization — the Ukraine Freedom Project — shows that about “one-third of Republican primary voters believe at least one of several narratives that are demonstrably false and originated in Russia.”

At the same time, the Biden White House has fallen victim to Russian propaganda designed to induce “nuclear psychosis,” writes Mr. Moore. He argues that the administration has been “obsessed with ‘managing escalation’ since the beginning of the war, which has slowed Ukraine’s war effort and led to the preventable deaths of thousands of Ukrainian civilians.”

Opinion: The U.N. is to blame for the suffering in Lebanon

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addresses the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024, at U.N. headquarters. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Jonathan Feldstein argues that while “every death and all the destruction taking place in Lebanon now is because of Hezbollah and its Iranian Islamic patron,” the U.N. is “complicit and guilty of enabling” Iran’s funding and arming Hezbollah for decades.

“It’s too egregious to be a passive oversight,” writes Mr. Feldstein, who asserts that: “At best, [U.N. member nations] get an assist in the death and destruction that’s happened so far, and what may come.”

“It’s all the U.N.’s fault,” he writes. “The best example is the flagrant violation of U.N. Resolution 1701 that ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Before the ink dried, Hezbollah and Lebanon were ignoring the text, and the U.N. turned a blind eye.”

Events on our radar

• Sept. 27 — The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) Fall Conference, Stanford University and the Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Sept. 30 — Conflict and Displacement in Sudan: the Urgent Need to Reduce Barriers to Humanitarian Response, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Sept. 30 — The Strategic Culture of the United Wa State Army in Myanmar, Stimson Center

• Oct. 4 — Targeting Taiwan: Beijing’s Playbook for Economic and Cyber Warfare, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Oct. 4 — The United States and China in Latin America: Rivalry, Cooperation, or Something In-between? Florida International University and the Brookings Institution

• Oct. 5-8 — 2024 Threat Conference, The Cipher Brief

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.