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France’s far-right National Rally took first place and appears on pace to win the next round of voting on July 7 — an outcome that could significantly impact the war in Ukraine.

…Efforts by Iran’s supreme leader to stabilize the governing structure in Tehran may have backfired amid low election turnout.

…Japan just successfully launched an upgraded version of its advanced Earth observation satellite.

…Thousands of Jewish ultra-Orthodox men clashed with Israeli police in central Jerusalem on Sunday over a new law subjecting them to the military draft.

…The EU is now accusing Meta of breaking the bloc’s digital regulations by forcing Facebook and Instagram users to choose between seeing ads or paying to avoid them.

…The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will host the only NATO-endorsed private-sector event on the sidelines of the alliance’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington next week.

…And Boeing, which is under congressional fire over safety issues, says it will buy Spirit AeroSystems for $4.7 billion.

State Department testing AI to combat disinformation

Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks while he meets with Cyprus' Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos, Monday, June 17, 2024, at the State Department in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

The State Department’s embrace of artificial intelligence includes testing new technology to combat foreign disinformation as part of an ambitious media monitoring and analysis project that spans the globe, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Mr. Blinken says AI is being used to scan and understand foreign information sites and sources, a task that would otherwise be impossible for the department’s employees to accomplish. The secretary told rank-and-file diplomats on Friday that AI tools can also help automate routine tasks, summarize reports and translate research.

His assertions follow scrutiny from Congress over the department’s leading anti-disinformation agency, the Global Engagement Center (GEC). House Foreign Affairs Committee lawmakers wrote to Mr. Blinken last year with concerns that the GEC has “subsidized censorship of free speech and disfavored opinions — particularly by established conservative media and individuals — through grants, partnerships and awards to entities.”

Le Pen victory in France could shift Ukraine war

Supporters of French far right leader Marine Le Pen react after the release of projections based on the actual vote count in select constituencies , Sunday, June 30, 2024 in Henin-Beaumont, northern France. French voters propelled the far-right National Rally to a strong lead in first-round legislative elections Sunday and plunged the country into political uncertainty, according to polling projections. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)

France’s anti-immigration, far-right National Rally party, once considered a fringe group, scored its biggest electoral triumph to date on Sunday, taking a clear first place in snap parliamentary elections called by centrist President Emmanuel Macron.

The focus is now on next Sunday’s second round of run-off voting and the prospect that the National Rally and party leader Marine Le Pen could seize an outright majority in France’s 577-seat lower house parliament. Threat Status is closely tracking how the outcome will affect French foreign policy and relations with the United States.

Mr. Macron has been a leading hawk in support of Ukraine in both NATO and the European Union in its war with Russia. Ms. Le Pen has firmly ruled out Mr. Macron’s trial balloon of sending French troops to aid in the fight, and Jordan Bardella, who will become France’s prime minister if the National Rally prevails next weekend, has said he would oppose sending long-range artillery to Kyiv.

Iran on the brink ahead of July 5 runoff

In this photo provided by Iranian Students' News Agency, ISNA, reformist candidate for the Iranian presidential election Masoud Pezeshkian casts his ballot as he waves to media in a polling station, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 28, 2024. Iranians are voting in a snap election to replace the late hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi. (Majid Khahi, ISNA via AP)

Cardiologist Masoud Pezeshkian, considered the lone moderate in Iran’s snap presidential elections, finished in first place over the weekend, but he’ll need plenty of help to overcome Saeed Jalili, a well-known Iranian hard-liner, in a runoff set for July 5.

Critics of the Iranian regime, including the thousands of Iranian dissidents who gathered for a rally in Berlin over the weekend, seized on low electoral turnout of just under 40% as proof of deep popular dissatisfaction with the theocratic regime in Tehran, where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei holds control over who is and is not allowed to participate in elections.

Regime opponents say the 85-year-old ayatollah wanted to use elections to solidify Iran’s theocratic governing structure. While the current outcome seems to prove that approach failed, hard-line, anti-U.S. forces inside Iran could coalesce to easily elect Mr. Jalili later this week. Threat Status will be tracking the outcome closely.

Russia shifts to drone warfare in Ukraine

A drone is seen in the sky seconds before it fired on buildings in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 17, 2022. Russia launched a new barrage of missiles and drones in an overnight attack on June 22, 2024, officials in Kyiv said Saturday, damaging energy facilities in Ukraine's southeast and west and injuring at least two workers. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky, File)

Russian forces are increasingly relying on low-cost drones to suppress Ukrainian air defenses and attack military and civilian targets because Kyiv has successfully denied the Kremlin’s bid to control the air space. That’s the core conclusion of a defense intelligence update posted on social media by United Kingdom military officials in recent days.

Ukrainian forces may have already accounted for Moscow’s change in tactics by attacking a key air defense training center inside Russia on June 21, the intelligence update says. “This base is one of at least five from which Russia launches its [uncrewed aerial vehicles] attacks against Ukraine,” the update says. “This strike reportedly destroyed 120 UAVs of differing types and wounded 9 personnel.”

Opinion front: Trump may be NATO's savior

Trump and NATO illustration by Greg Groesch / The Washington Times

Former President Donald Trump alarmed the foreign policy establishment with some norm-breaking comments in February earlier this year, saying that he would “encourage” attacks against “free-rider” NATO allies who refuse to meet alliance defense spending targets, writes Bilal Bilici, a member of the Turkish Parliament.

“For the international community, there is no sugar-coating the fact that these kinds of statements weaken trust in the United States as an ally,” writes Mr. Bilici. “But it is surprising how little discussion there is of the impact Mr. Trump’s rhetoric — whether you agree with it or not — may have on motivating positive action among member nations.”

He goes on to argue then-President Trump’s push on NATO members during the 2019 timeframe to spend more on defense generated real results. “Thanks to Mr. Trump,” writes Mr. Bilici, “many NATO members have responded positively to the challenge — now, at least 11 member countries, including Poland, Lithuania, Romania and Hungary, are meeting the threshold, representing a major increase from 10 years ago.”

Events on our radar

• July 1 — America’s foreign policy: A conversation with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Brookings Institution

• July 1 — Cyber Scams and Human Trafficking in Cambodia and Vietnam, U.S. Institute of Peace

• July 2 — Force Design: A conversation with Gen. Eric Smith, 39th commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps, Brookings Institution

• July 8 — Revisiting the Legacy of Shinzo Abe, Stimson Center

• July 8 — The U.S. Vision for AI Safety: A Conversation with Elizabeth Kelly, Director of the U.S. AI Safety Institute, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

• July 9 — NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

• July 11 — Supercharging the Development Finance Corporation: Opportunities and Pathways for Development, Infrastructure, and Investment, Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)

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