Stepped-up activities within China’s transportation network will provide American military planners with clear signs of impending military action against Taiwan, a Hill panel was told this week.

Devin Thorne, a private threat intelligence analyst, told a hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission that U.S. analysts would be able to detect any preparations for a major conflict against Taiwan through military mobilization activities inside China. 

Mr. Thorne cited a People’s Liberation Army logistic report outlining the transportation requirements for a Taiwan attack, including some 3,000 train trips, 1 million vehicle trips, 2,100 aircraft sorties, 15 oil pipeline battalions and more than 8,000 ship voyages.

His testimony came after Adm. Samuel Paparo, the new Indo-Pacific Command chief, made headlines by warning China’s military to expect a “hellscape” response to any potential military assault on Taiwan. “They want to offer the world a short, sharp war so that it is a fait accompli before the world can get their act together,” Adm. Paparo told Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin. “My job is to ensure that between now and 2027 and beyond, the U.S. military and the allies are capable of prevailing.”

American spy agencies have identified more potential indications of subversive influence efforts by hostile foreign governments, their proxies and others than ever before as the November U.S. election approaches, reports National Security Tech Correspondent Ryan Lovelace.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) says U.S. spies are ramping up efforts to counter increasingly sophisticated “influence” work — the business of subversive, coercive and criminal messaging intended to skew American voters’ political perceptions, attitudes and behaviors.

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Chair Mark R. Warner has warned that it’s not just America’s adversaries in Russia, Iran and China looking to meddle, either: Some “quasi-allies” wanted to interfere in U.S. politics, too. ODNI officials have declined to identify any friendly countries looking to sway the U.S. vote, but told Threat Status this week that a wide range of actors see America’s coming elections as critical to their own interests.

A Foreign Malign Influence Center was established within ODNI in 2022. Inside the center, the Election Threats Executive is sorting through “nominations,” or suspicious instances meriting greater attention for uncovering potential subversive foreign influence.

Microsoft fears that hackers from China and Russia will soon be working together on devastating cyberattacks, and collaborating with Iran and North Korea when the opportunity arises.

The Big Tech company is reeling from a China-linked hack last year that compromised the emails of its U.S. government clients. Microsoft’s president told a House Homeland Security Committee hearing Thursday of 47 million “phishing” raids detected on his company’s network and employees in the past year. Russia and China work together in military and intelligence, and are closely connected with Iran and North Korea, Mr. Smith said in written testimony.

He predicts the partnerships will expand into cyberspace. “This is grave at multiple levels. It’s one thing to engage in cyber combat with four separate nation-state adversaries, but quite another scenario if two or all four of these countries work in tandem,” said Mr. Smith.

Lawmakers are proposing to create a commission to investigate debilitating brain-related injuries caused during incidents against U.S. government personnel posted abroad, known formally as anomalous health incidents. A section of the current House intelligence authorization bill now being debated would set up a National Security Commission on Anomalous Health Incidents.

The malady is suspected of being caused by some type of directed energy device first detected against U.S. diplomats in Cuba and has come to be known as “Havana syndrome.” U.S. intelligence agencies have insisted that the incidents were not the result of hostile action, a claim that has angered victims who are convinced they have been targets of sonic weapons or other directed energy device.

The controversial V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft won’t resume full flight operations until at least mid-2025 after the entire fleet was grounded last year following four crashes in the last two years that killed 20 service members.

The most recent incident occurred in November 2023 when a V-22 Osprey assigned to Air Force Special Operations Command went down near an island off the coast of southern Japan. The crash killed all eight service members aboard.

“The platform had experienced a catastrophic material failure that we had never seen before in the V-22 program,” Navy Vice Adm. Carl Chebi told the House Oversight Committee at a hearing this week.

The Russian president’s barbaric war in Ukraine has “backfired in spectacular ways,” according to retired CIA officer and Threat Status contributor Daniel N. Hoffman, who points to “hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties; NATO membership for Finland and Sweden; and a Europe awakened from its post-Cold War slumber with a commitment to bigger defense budgets.”

“Mr. Putin’s only success has been the use of nuclear threats to induce ‘escalation paralysis’ in Washington and other NATO capitals. As a result, the U.S. was late in delivering to Ukraine badly needed tanks, as well as air defense and artillery like HIMARS and ATACMS, in the early stages of the war,” writes Mr. Hoffman.

“This reluctance clearly played a role in Ukraine’s inability to make significant gains in its much-vaunted counteroffensive last summer,” he writes. “More than two years into the fight, Ukraine’s air force still has deployed none of the F-16 fighter aircraft promised by the West.”

• June 14 — Preparing the Next Generation of Diplomats, U.S. Institute of Peace.

• June 17 — Unpacking the European Parliament Election Results, Center for Strategic and International Studies.

• June 18 — Back to the Drafting Board: U.S. Capabilities for Deterring and Winning in Protracted Conflict, Center for a New American Security.

• June 18 — The Next Pivot to Asia, Hudson Institute.

• June 21 — AUKUS: Taking Stock and Looking Forward, Center for a New American Security.

• June 25 — AI in the Field of Economic Development, Center for Strategic and International Studies.