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The Biden administration’s slow-walking of weapons deliveries to Ukraine has shifted momentum to Russia, analysts say.
… A group of current and former employees at top artificial intelligence companies released an open letter Tuesday warning of “serious risks” associated with the technology.
…An Israeli airstrike in Syria reportedly killed an Iranian general, sparking renewed fears about potential Israel-Iran clashes.
… Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coalition appeared on course for victory in the country’s elections but faced a stronger challenge from the opposition than expected.
… And it has been 35 years since the massacre at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.
The Biden administration has finally given Ukraine the green light to use American-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. But it may be too late, as Russia is already deep into its offensive in the Kharkiv region and has substantial forces stationed on the front lines ready to push deeper into Ukraine.
The administration’s long-awaited decision, Mr. Wolfgang reports, is the latest example of what’s become a troubling pattern: Ukraine asks for a specific capability, the U.S. waits months to deliver it out of fear of provoking Moscow, and the Russian army takes advantage of the delay, while Ukraine is unable to capitalize during pivotal moments in the conflict.
George Barros, a leading analyst at the Institute for the Study of War think tank, broke down the timeline on the latest episode of the “Threat Status” podcast. In the fall of 2022, he said, Ukraine could have scored potentially decisive wins against a reeling Russian army — if only the U.S. had provided battle tanks ahead of time. In the summer of 2023, a Ukrainian counteroffensive may have succeeded if the Biden administration had given Kyiv long-range artillery to strike Russian airfields. Washington ultimately did send such artillery, but only after the Russians repelled the Ukrainian counteroffensive, thanks in large part to its airfields in Zaporizhzhia that Ukraine was unable to strike.
The pattern isn’t lost on Republican lawmakers. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, Texas Republican, told Secretary of State Antony Blinken at a recent hearing that the U.S. has given Ukraine “just enough to bleed out, but not for victory.” The administration, in turn, blames House Republicans. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told ABC News on Sunday that squabbling between Republicans over a $61 billion U.S. military package for Kyiv is the real culprit behind the delays in U.S. weapons deliveries.
None of that is to say the Ukrainians aren’t inflicting real damage on the Russian force. Military correspondent Mike Glenn reports on recent British intelligence estimates showing that Russia suffered about 39,000 killed and wounded in May. That’s the highest monthly figure since the start of the war in February 2022.
National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz has his eye on new warnings about the cyber threats emanating from communist China.
China’s cyber operatives have infiltrated computer networks used to control critical U.S. infrastructure, lurking there in preparation for future attacks to disrupt American society during a conflict, the director of the National Security Agency warned.
Air Force Gen. Timothy Haugh, also the commander of U.S. Cyber Command, said Chinese hackers have been pre-positioning cyber tools in ways that are unique in military terms because the operations provide no intelligence value — suggesting the Chinese military is preparing the ground for large-scale sabotage in the future.
“We see attempts to be latent in a network that is critical infrastructure, that has no intelligence value, which is why it is so concerning,” Gen. Haugh told The Wall Street Journal, noting that the dangers are based on the types of infrastructure targets and how they are being targeted.
New Chinese cyber threats seem to pop up on a near-daily basis. Last week, the State Department designated three Chinese nationals for activities associated with a malicious botnet known as 911 S5, which allowed criminals to commit widespread cyber-enabled fraud. The crimes included “the submission of tens of thousands of fraudulent applications related to Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act programs by its users, resulting in the loss of billions of dollars,” the State Department said.
Russia is ramping up its cyberattacks, too: Mr. Blinken warned on a recent trip to Europe that the Kremlin is increasingly using the cyber domain to launch attacks on NATO states.
With cyber threats at the center of the U.S. national security landscape, some prominent voices have called for a U.S. Cyber Force to be established within the Army, similar to how the Marine Corps sits within the Navy and Space Force exists under the Air Force.
But not everyone is in favor of the idea. The Times’ Ryan Lovelace reports on how the recently retired leader of U.S. Cyber Command and the NSA has come out against the creation of an independent new cyber branch of the American military.
Former Army Gen. Paul Nakasone says cyber threats are serious but acknowledges he is not a fan of creating a new force to join the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force and Space Force.
“We have to think about how we’re going to organize ourselves. I do not think organizing a service is the best way to do that right now,” Gen. Nakasone said on a podcast with ClearanceJobs, a website listing career opportunities with special security requirements.
The African National Congress, after decades of unchallenged political dominance, is about to learn a new skill: sharing.
Correspondent Geoff Hill reports from South Africa that President Cyril Ramaphosa and his ANC will be forced to share power with opposition parties if they want to be part of the country’s governing coalition.
After perhaps the most consequential vote of the post-apartheid era, Mr. Ramaphosa this week is expected to meet with ANC executive officers and senior members of his party to discuss their options after securing only 40.2% of last week’s vote, down from 57% five years ago.
Tuesday marks 35 years since the massacre at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. China ramped up security in Beijing and in Hong Kong on Tuesday as part of its broader push to erase any memory of the crackdown. The 1989 Tiananmen protests culminated with China sending in an estimated 180,000 troops and armed police, complete with tanks and armored vehicles, to put down the student-led demonstrations.
Since then, human rights organizations say the communist government has systematically blocked any remembrances or commemorations, while also refusing to acknowledge responsibility for the mass killings or provide redress for victims and their families.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te released a statement Tuesday marking the anniversary.
“On the 35th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Incident, we commemorate the students & citizens who bravely marched for change. As [Taiwan] deepens our commitment towards human rights, we firmly stand by the belief that the people only truly flourish with freedom & democracy,” he said in a post on X.
And Rep. Chris Smith, New Jersey Republican, wrote in an op-ed for The Washington Times on Tuesday that the events in 1989 “should remind us that Tiananmen is not simply a past event to ponder but a present reminder that when the Chinese people are free to assemble, act and speak, they demand freedom, democracy and political reform.”
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