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Welcome to Threat Status: Share it with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor

EU authorities just raided a Brussels office in apparent connection to a Russian interference probe that uncovered a network trying to undermine Western support for Ukraine.

…Japan says it scrambled fighter jets in response to a Chinese spy and attack drone flight into its air defense zone earlier this week.

…Top Qatari, Saudi, Jordanian and Turkish officials joined new Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa on a visit to Spain Wednesday — days after Spain, Ireland and Norway officially recognized a Palestinian state.

…South Africans are voting in a pivotal election that could end or extend the three-decade dominance of the African National Congress.

…Researchers at Stanford are building an artificial intelligence model to try to predict the Chinese government’s moves should a war break out.

…Veteran American diplomat Raymond Greene has been appointed as Washington’s new representative to Taiwan.

…U.S. forces are unhooking their temporary humanitarian aid pier in Gaza following structural damage caused by rough seas.

…And U.S. federal law enforcement have identified a new crime “industry” involving robbery crews from South America who exploit America’s immigration system.

Psychological warfare: North Korea floats trash balloons into South

This photo provided by South Korea Defense Ministry, shows trash from a balloon presumably sent by North Korea, in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, May 29, 2024. In another sign of tensions between the war-divided rivals, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said North Korea also has been flying large numbers of balloons carrying trash toward the South since Tuesday night, in an apparent retaliation against South Korean activists for flying anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets across the border. (South Korea Presidential Office via AP)

North Korea, long a master of trash-talking, is following through with a trash attack — literally. Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon reports that some 260 “filth balloons” from North Korea had floated across the Demilitarized Zone into South Korea between late Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the balloons, some equipped with timer devices apparently designed to disperse their cargoes, dumped garbage and sacks of manure across South Korea. Landings have been reported on roads, apartment gardens and even greenhouses roofs. Some reached as far as 155 miles south of the border.

The North has long complained about balloons carrying anti-regime propaganda launched by activists in South Korea.

Inside Stanford's AI war-gaming on China

Chinese President Xi Jinping is displayed on a screen as Type 99A2 Chinese battle tanks take part in a parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender during World War II, held in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing on Thursday, Sept. 3, 2015. From the military suppression of Beijing’s 1989 pro-democracy protests to the less deadly crushing of Hong Kong’s opposition four decades later, China’s long-ruling Communist Party has demonstrated a determination and ability to stay in power that is seemingly impervious to Western criticism and sanctions. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)

Stanford University’s top researchers are attempting to build an artificial intelligence model that can predict the Chinese government’s moves at war, as fears grow in Washington that the communist regime may soon invade Taiwan.

From Beijing to Washington, a growing cohort of technologists are turning to AI for answers about the thinking and intentions of Chinese President Xi Jinping. While the U.S. uses AI to understand how Beijing may escalate competition into war, China is hoping AI can provide a 21st-century update on Mao’s “Little Red Book.”

National Security Tech Correspondent Ryan Lovelace looks at the Stanford program, writing that China is building its own AI model based on “Xi Jinping Thought,” according to reports citing the Cyberspace Administration of China, the government’s internet regulator. The tool is expected to answer questions, summarize information and translate between Chinese and English. It remains unknown how it will be used.

Russia ramps up Soviet-style troop indoctrination

Soviet leader Josef Stalin raises his right hand in salute while reviewing a May Day Parade in Red Square in Moscow, on May 1, 1946. Abortions were banned under Stalin but became commonplace under later Kremlin leaders. Under President Vladimir Putin, who has forged a has forged a powerful alliance with the Russian Orthodox Church, now promotes "traditional values" and seeks to boost population growth, officials are considering restricting access to abortion once again. (AP Photo, File)

The Kremlin is taking a page from the former Soviet Union’s playbook by emphasizing the political indoctrination of the armed forces now mired in a long and costly fight in neighboring Ukraine.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has rolled out the first issue of Politruk, a new training journal for the military. It is intended to help instructors carry out the political education of the troops, according to an assessment by British military intelligence.

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin, who heads the main political directorate of Russia’s military, has said Politruk “draws heavily” on the legacy of Soviet military publications aimed at the political education of military personnel. The journal notably echoes claims made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has attempted to portray Ukrainian statehood as historically inauthentic.

Japanese jets scramble in response to Chinese drone

In this Aug. 1, 2019, file photo, Japanese Air Self-Defense Force's F-35A stealth fighter jets prepare to land at Misawa Air Base in Misawa, northern Japan. Japan's Defense Ministry is seeking a record-high budget of nearly 5.5 trillion yen ($55 billion) for fiscal 2021 fund more purchases of costly American stealth fighters and expand its capability to counter possible threats in both cyber and outer space.(Kyodo News via AP, File)

Japanese fighter jets were scrambled to intercept a Chinese military drone spotted for the first time flying over the East China Sea, Tokyo’s defense ministry disclosed this week.

The Chinese WL-10 reconnaissance and strike uncrewed aerial vehicle was tracked flying over waters near Okinawa on Monday, prompting the fighter jet response, the Joint Staff Office stated in a press release. Photos of the drone were released by the defense ministry.

The Joint Staff Office stated that fighter jets were dispatched to intercept the drone by the Japan Air Self-Defense Force’s Southwestern Air Command Support Flight, an air force unit located at the Naha Air Base in Okinawa. The type of jets used in the interception was not disclosed.

Opinion front: The new era of nuclear threats from China, Russia

U.S. nuclear weapons and threats from China, Russia illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

The U.S. and Russia have parity with respect to strategic nuclear weapons, but the imbalance in nonstrategic — “tactical” — nuclear weapons, which are not subject to any treaty, is immense, write David Jonas and Patrick Rhoads.

The Russians enjoy at least a 10-to-1 advantage over the United States in these lower-yield nuclear weapons, while China is in the middle of a massive nuclear buildup, which has been described as “breathtaking” by the former commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, they write, adding that “the buildup is expected to bring China to parity with the U.S. and Russia in about a decade.”

“While the U.S. is just now embarking on its nuclear modernization efforts, China and Russia are completing their programs,” Mr. Jonas and Mr. Rhoads write. “We have never faced the prospect of two peer or near-peer nuclear rivals and do not yet have the analytical and intellectual bases to address the emergent nuclear tripolarity.”

U.N., Norway, Spain, Ireland and others back the terrorists

United Nations and terrorists illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

The flag of the United Nations was flown at half-staff last week to honor the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the “Butcher of Tehran” who was responsible for torturing and executing thousands of Iranian political prisoners, minorities and women, writes Threat Status opinion contributor Clifford D. May.

“The regime he served supports Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Houthis of Yemen,” writes Mr. May, who notes how last week also saw Norway, Spain and Ireland announce they would recognize a Palestinian state — a development that prompted Hamas to express its “gratitude for this ‘historic turning point’ brought about by the ‘brave resistance.’”

He goes on to argue that the U.N. and many other international organizations have become “clubs for tyrants,” while noting how, during World War II, Norway, Spain and Ireland were “neutral toward — or actively supportive of — the Nazis, whose big ideas included mass-murdering Jews.”

• May 29 — Lessons for an Unserious Superpower: The “Scoop” Jackson Legacy and U.S. Foreign Policy, American Enterprise Institute.

• May 30 — Africa’s Oil Economies Amidst the Energy Transition: Angola, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

• May 31 — Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2024 Launch, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

• June 4 — The Book Launch | “The Melting Point: High Command and War in the 21st Century,” Middle East Institute.

• June 4 — Supreme Allied Commanders on the Past, Present and Future of NATO, Hudson Institute.

• June 4 — Flashpoints and High Stakes: America’s Blueprint to Counter China, Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.