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Welcome to Threat Status: Share it with your friends who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor or National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has sparked questions about the future of the regime in Tehran and who will be the eventual successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

… The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court is seeking arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant as well as three Hamas leaders.

… The Pentagon says all U.S. troops will be out of Niger by mid-September.

…And Taiwan’s newly inaugurated president says his country will not ‘yield’ to Beijing. 

 

Raisi's death leaves Iran in flux

In this Aug. 29, 2023, file photo, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi places his hands on his heart as a gesture of respect as he leaves after the conclusion of a news conference in Tehran, Iran. President Raisi, the country's foreign minister and others have been found dead at the site of a helicopter crash Monday, May 20, 2024, after an hourslong search through a foggy, mountainous region of the country's northwest, state media reported. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File)

The death of Mr. Raisi in a helicopter crash Sunday has created a sudden power vacuum inside Tehran and could have major ramifications for the Middle East, a region already on edge. Mr. Raisi’s death, with the death of Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, comes on the heels of Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel and its proxy clashes with the U.S.

Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber was appointed as the country’s caretaker prime minister and is expected to serve for 50 days before mandatory presidential elections. It’s not clear how the unexpected leadership change will affect Iranian foreign policy in the near term or whether the shift could affect the actions of Iranian proxies such as Hamas, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Shiite militia groups in Iraq and Syria.

Threat Status is also watching the long-term political fallout. Mr. Raisi was widely viewed as a leading candidate to become Tehran’s next supreme leader, eventually replacing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is 85 years old. With Mr. Raisi dead, attention could turn to the supreme leader’s son, cleric Mojtaba Khamenei, as his father’s eventual successor. Even before Mr. Raisi’s death, Iran-watchers have said that Mojtaba Khamenei’s prospects shouldn’t be discounted.

How will the U.S. react?

In this photo provided by Moj News Agency, rescue teams members carry the body of a victim after a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi crashed in Varzaghan, northwestern Iran, Monday, May 20, 2024. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s foreign minister and others have been found dead at the site of a helicopter crash after an hours-long search through a foggy, mountainous region of the country’s northwest, state media reported. (Azin Haghighi, Moj News Agency via AP)

There has been no official comment from the Biden administration on the death of Mr. Raisi. But some analysts say the U.S. should consider seizing the moment, perhaps to aid in the free flow of information to the Iranian people. Former Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell wrote on X late Sunday night: “Now would be a fantastic time for the Biden administration to work around the clock to ensure the Iranian government firewalls are constantly taken down. Access to the internet is an amazing weapon.”

Threat Status is watching reactions elsewhere around the world. Israeli officials said they weren’t involved with the helicopter crash. Iranian proxy groups Hamas and Hezbollah mourned Mr. Raisi’s death. Leaders across the Arab world offered their condolences.

Two of Iran’s authoritarian allies, Russia and China, did the same. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Mr. Raisi was a “true friend,” while Chinese President Xi Jinping said his death was a “great loss.”

ICC seeks arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a ceremony for the "Remembrance Day for the Fallen of Israel's Wars and Victims of Terrorism'"at Yad LeBanim in Jerusalem, Israel, Sunday, May 12, 2024. Israel will observe Memorial Day from sunset tonight until sunset on May 13, when Independence Day begins.(Debbie Hill/Pool Photo via AP)

The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court said Monday he is seeking arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders, including Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant. The move could put more international pressure on the Netanyahu government to articulate its long-term plan for the Gaza Strip amid growing criticism of its strategy there. In his public statement Monday, ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan said Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant “bear criminal responsibility for the following war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of the State of Palestine” because of Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Both inside Israel and internationally, the pressure is mounting on Mr. Netanyahu. Protesters were arrested in Tel Aviv Monday amid a “day of disruption” by Israeli civilians, many of whom want to see an end to Mr. Netanyahu’s government. The Israeli leader also faces a backlash from within, as his main political rival, Benny Gantz, has threatened to leave the government if a plan is not created by June 8 that includes an international administration for postwar Gaza.

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with Mr. Netanyahu in Israel on Sunday, hours after an Israeli airstrike reportedly killed 27 people in central Gaza.

Taiwan’s new president inaugurated

Taiwan's new President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, right, and former President Tsai Ing-wen wave during Lai's inauguration ceremonies in Taipei, Taiwan, Monday, May 20, 2024. Lai in his inauguration speech has urged China to stop its military intimidation against the self-governed island Beijing claims as its own territory. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying)

William Lai, who was inaugurated as Taiwan’s new president Monday, urged China to respect the island’s democratic choices, while reminding the world of his country’s significance. Washington Times Asia Editor Andrew Salmon covered Mr. Lai’s inaugural speech, including his relatively strong words for Beijing.

“I hope that China will face the reality of [Taiwan’s] existence … [and] respect the choices of the people of Taiwan,” Mr. Lai said. “In face of the many threats and attempts of infiltration from China, we must demonstrate our resolution to defend our nation.”

The beginning of the Lai administration comes at a time of heightened tensions. Times National Security Correspondent Bill Gertz wrote recently about new reports saying that China is engaged in information warfare across multiple sectors of Taiwan and plans a takeover of the self-ruled island through political coercion and cyber spying influence operations, with military force a key option.

The backbone of America's Special Forces

Special Forces candidates assigned to the U.S. Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School patrol through a wooded area during the final phase of field training known as Robin Sage in central North Carolina, July 9, 2019. U.S. special operations commanders are having to do more with less and they're learning from the war in Ukraine, That means juggling how to add more high-tech experts to their teams while still cutting their overall forces by about 5,000 troops over the next five years. (Ken Kassens/U.S. Army via AP) **FILE**

Guns, bombs, drones and artificial intelligence steal the headlines, but a less snazzy side to the world of U.S. special operations forces is central to accomplishing missions quickly, effectively and safely.

Mr. Wolfgang attended the Special Operations Forces Week convention in Tampa this month and reports on the trailer-mounted shelters, flashlights, mobile command centers and data-protection apps on display there. All of those, he says, help form the backbone of capabilities of America’s most elite fighting forces.

Military Correspondent Mike Glenn reports on another cutting-edge capability, the F-35 fighter jet, and its ongoing troubles.

The plane, which represents the Pentagon’s most ambitious weapons program ever, has been plagued with mounting costs and delays that will result in a price tag of more than $2 trillion in the coming decades. A recent report by the Government Accountability Office indicated the problems haven’t been solved.

“Contractors continue to deliver engines and aircraft late — a trend that has worsened in the last few years,” GAO investigators said in their May 16 report. “The program also faces delays in updating the aircraft’s software and has been slow to modernize the engine and other aircraft components.”

Events on our radar

May 20 — Roundtable: Republican foreign policy for a new Cold War, Chatham House.

May 20 — Strategic Synergies: India-U.S. Technology Cooperation, Hudson Institute.

May 21 — A Conversation with Former Algerian Foreign Minister Lakhdar Brahimi: Reflections on Diplomacy and Peace, U.S. Institute of Peace.

May 21 — Navigating Change in Russia’s Contested Neighborhood, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

May 22 — Nikki Haley on the Dangers of National Security Weakness, Hudson Institute.

May 22 — Can China offer a real alternative to liberal democracy? The Brookings Institution.

May 23 — Hearing: Key Economic Strategies for Leveling the U.S.-China Playing Field, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.