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Welcome to Threat Status: Share it with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will arrive in China on Thursday for a state visit that will underscore the expanding alignment between the two authoritarian powers against the U.S.-led democratic world order.

…President Biden is quadrupling tariffs on Chinese electric cars and raising other tariffs on Chinese steel and microchips in a bid to show U.S. voters he’s tougher on China and more protective of American goods than former President Trump.

…Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on an unannounced trip to Kyiv, where he said Tuesday that U.S. military aid will help Ukraine succeed on the battlefield.

…The U.N. says more than a half-million Palestinians are fleeing fighting between Hamas and Israeli forces in Rafah.

…And the latest Threat Status podcast goes inside the Pentagon’s Replicator program and the wider issue of how artificial intelligence and autonomous drone systems are reshaping U.S. weaponry.

Terror groups gaining strength in Afghanistan

A Taliban fighter checks an Islamic State group house that was destroyed in the ongoing conflict between the two in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Feb. 14, 2023. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)

The power vacuum America left in Afghanistan is fueling a resurgence of Islamist terrorists with the will, and perhaps capability, to target the U.S., according to a new United States Institute of Peace (USIP) report that argues the Biden administration should consider unleashing more military strikes against terrorist targets in the country, along with cyberattacks to disrupt the communications and propaganda campaigns of ISIS-K and al Qaeda.

Since pulling the last troops out of Afghanistan in August 2021, the U.S. military has carried out just one strike in the country despite Mr. Biden’s promise that the “over the horizon” capabilities of the military and intelligence community could keep a lid on any terrorist threats. The USIP report argues the administration needs to overhaul its approach to meet the rising level of danger.

Terrorist threats are also growing in neighboring Pakistan, with some groups aiming to attack the U.S. homeland and others focused on attacks on India, the report warns, assessing that in a worst-case scenario, that “could trigger Indian military action against Pakistan and, in turn, risk a regional war between two nuclear-armed states.”

It’s notable that U.S. and Pakistani officials held a “counterterrorism dialogue” in recent days. The State Department said both sides “resolved to increase communication” toward a partnership to counter ISIS-K, the Islamic State’s active and deadly Afghan-based branch.

China focuses on non-military ways to take Taiwan

A Taiwan national flag flutters near the Taipei 101 building at the National Dr. Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hall in Taipei, Taiwan, on May 7, 2023. Weeks before Taiwan holds elections for its president and legislature, China has renewed its threat to use military force to annex the self-governing island democracy it claims as its own territory. (AP Photo/Chiang Ying-ying, File)

China is engaged in information warfare across multiple sectors of Taiwan and plans a takeover of the self-ruled island through political coercion and cyber spying influence operations, with military force a key option, according to two new think tank reports.

China’s military is playing a central role behind aggressive activities that seek what President Xi Jinping has called the “complete reunification” of Taiwan, states a report by analysts from the intelligence contractor Booz Allen Hamilton. The report warns that “the total isolation or annexation of Taiwan would constitute a significant erosion of U.S. influence and trust in its ability to balance power in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere.”

Separately, a report by the American Enterprise Institute warns that China is capable of taking Taiwan without a war, using a range of strategic coercive activities.

Inside Canada's evolving Arctic strategy

Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair makes an announcement regarding additional SkyRanger R70 drone support to Ukraine in Toronto, Monday, Feb. 19, 2024. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP)

Canada is making significant military investments, including purchasing combat and support aircraft, and will replace its aging submarine fleet, according to Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair, who says the moves are needed to address growing threats to the Arctic region, most notably from Russia.

“We need to really up our game,” Mr. Blair told journalists gathered for a Defense Writers Group meeting in Washington on Monday, comments that come against a backdrop in which multinational attempts to manage geopolitical competition in the frozen north have suffered amid Russia’s break with the West because of the war in Ukraine.

The Arctic Ocean could be the primary transit route between Europe and Asia by 2050. The Russians already have deep-water ports in the Arctic. Pentagon Correspondent Mike Glenn reports that Mr. Blair didn’t say how many outposts Canada has other than to say it “wasn’t enough.”

Podcast: How AI and autonomous systems are reshaping warfare

AI technology and the military. File photo credit: TSViPhoto via Shutterstock.

The Pentagon’s Replicator program and the wider issue of how artificial intelligence and autonomous drone systems are reshaping U.S. military weaponry take center stage in the latest Threat Status weekly podcast.

Replicator aims to dramatically expand the number of all-domain autonomous systems available to the U.S. and its allies over the coming year. National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang reported from the Special Operations Forces Week convention in Tampa for the podcast, which features an interview with Wahid Nawabi, CEO of AeroVironment, one of many companies involved in Replicator. He says the program is moving “incredibly fast” and that AeroVironment’s systems are being used in 55 different countries around the world, including Ukraine.

The podcast also delves into a range of other issues, including the latest developments in the mystery of suspended State Department Iran envoy Robert Malley and the cease-fire that wasn’t between Israel and Hamas.

Just 46% of new immigrants to U.S. are working

Peruvian Julia Paredes, center in white hat, listens to instructions from a Border Patrol agent with others seeking asylum as they wait to be processed after crossing the border with Mexico nearby, Thursday, April 25, 2024, in Boulevard, Calif. Mexico has begun requiring visas for Peruvians in response to a major influx of migrants from the South American country. The move follows identical ones for Venezuelans, Ecuadorians and Brazilians, effectively eliminating the option of flying to a Mexican city near the U.S. border. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull) **FILE**

Mr. Biden has overseen the fastest expansion of immigration — legal and illegal — in U.S. history, but fewer than half of the newcomers are holding jobs, according to a new report by the Center for Immigration Studies.

The assessment, based on U.S. Census Bureau numbers, calculates that 46% of immigrants who arrived over the past two years are employed, a reality that challenges a key selling point from immigration advocates that the stream of newcomers is critical to the U.S. economy.

Opinion front: It’s Xi’s world, Gen Z’s just living in it

TikTok and China's information ecosystem illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

There is a world where everything distressing to Beijing suddenly disappears — no Uyghur genocide in Xinjiang, no Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel, no Russian invasion of Ukraine, no protests in Hong Kong and no COVID-19 pandemic, write Ted Bossong and Zacarias Negron, college students and presidents of the Alexander Hamilton Society chapters at their universities, Wake Forest for Mr. Bossong and Vanderbilt for Mr. Negron.

This world, crafted entirely by the Chinese Communist Party, is only a click away, they write, adding that “we know because a majority of our generation (and around 55% of the U.S. population) lives in it on TikTok.”

“China minces few words in its aim to meet and defeat the United States. TikTok, the Chinese Communist Party’s most able information weapon, has placed millions of American Gen Zers on the front lines of a ‘cold-turning-hot war,’ which promises a half-century more akin to the dystopian world of TikTok’s worst narratives than anything we have ever known,” write Mr. Bossong and Mr. Negron.

“Last month, a flourish of President Biden’s signature put the app in serious jeopardy,” they write. “Indeed, legislation to ban the platform (or a transfer of ownership to an entity that is not aligned with the Chinese Communist Party) has been a bicameral success.”

Events on our radar

• May 14 — Mexico After AMLO, Hudson Institute.

• May 15 — Countering Campus Antisemitism: A Bipartisan Conversation with Reps. Mike Lawler (New York Republican, and Ritchie Torres, New York Democrat, American Enterprise Institute.

• May 15 — U.S.-Nigeria Partnership in the Changing Global Arena: A Conversation with Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar, Wilson Center.

• May 15 — The Pernicious Impact of China’s Anti-Secession Law, Hudson Institute.

• May 15 — Panel Discussion and Reception on Nuclear Security Modernization, Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center: ANWA.

• May 16 — Preserving and Strengthening Democracy in Latin America, Wilson Center.

• May 21 — A Conversation with Former Algerian Foreign Minister Lakhdar Brahimi: Reflections on Diplomacy and Peace, U.S. Institute of Peace.

Thanks for reading Threat Status. Don’t forget to share it with your friends, who can sign up here. And listen to our weekly podcast available here or wherever you get your podcasts.

If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.