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China imported nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil in April despite U.S. sanctions, according to the latest United Against Nuclear Iran assessment.
…Colombia just broke diplomatic ties with Israel, even though the Colombian military relies on Israeli-built weapons to fight drug cartels and leftist rebel groups.
…One of the roughly 100 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas has died in captivity, while a cease-fire deal remains elusive.
…Trade is expected to top the agenda when Chinese President Xi Jinping begins his first tour of Europe in five years on Monday.
…Defense chiefs from the U.S., Australia, Japan and the Philippines vowed deeper coordination during the second-ever joint meeting this week in Hawaii.
…And pro-Palestinian protests are spreading to Australian university campuses.
CIA Director William J. Burns has made a giant pivot toward making advanced technology a major intelligence objective as the agency prepares for an “infinite race” with China to achieve dominance over artificial intelligence, according to CIA Chief Technology Officer Nand Mulchandani.
In remarks to the Hill & Valley Forum’s gathering of top technology and government officials in Washington this week, Mr. Mulchandani said the CIA is “all in” on AI for offense, defense and more, and that the agency is building its own large language models — essentially sophisticated algorithms that make generative AI tools work.
“We’re looking at transforming every single part of what the agency does, from operations to the analytic function, support functions and other pieces there,” Mr. Mulchandani said. “We don’t think there’s anything more important than this.”
He said the agency is working to outcompete China while “fighting across every single one of these emerging tech areas,” which he identified as AI, biotechnology, space technology, quantum technology and telecommunications.
China’s leaders are planning for greater instability in relations with the United States, and Chinese military forces are expected to continue aggressive actions in the Asia-Pacific region, according to Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
Ms. Haines also warns that Chinese backing of Russia’s defense base is tipping the war in Ukraine in Moscow’s favor, and that China and Russia have pre-positioned malicious software in critical U.S. infrastructure as part of planning for future sabotage.
She made the assertions during the unclassified portion of the Senate Armed Services Committee’s annual threat briefing on Thursday. Top Biden administration officials also released intelligence assessments on Iranian activities and support for Hamas and other proxy groups now engaged in a war with Israel.
A Moscow investigation that landed Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov in jail on bribery charges tied to his role as chief of military procurement is threatening to ensnare other high-ranking Kremlin officials, according to British intelligence.
Mr. Ivanov, 48, who was arrested April 23, is accused of accepting a bribe of 1 million rubles — about $10,800. A U.K. Defense Intelligence update posted on social media this week said an investigation by Russia’s Federal Security Service, the FSB, has reportedly questioned the more senior First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov. He is effectively No. 3 in the Russian Defense Ministry hierarchy behind Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff.
The bribery investigation also threatens to target Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, the British intelligence assessment said.
The virus research group EcoHealth Alliance was engaged in dangerous experimental virus work in Wuhan, China, that was funded by the U.S. federal government, according to a newly released report by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic.
“EcoHealth used taxpayer dollars to facilitate gain-of-function research on coronaviruses in Wuhan at the [Wuhan Institute of Virology], contrary to previous public statements, including those by [former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] Dr. Anthony Fauci,” the report says.
Peter Daszak, president of New York-based EcoHealth, testified this week before the subcommittee upon the release of its report. He faced hostile questioning from Republicans and Democrats over his role in federally funded virus work at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is suspected of playing a role in sparking the deadly pandemic. Mr. Daszak denied misleading the government or that his organization conducted risky virus research.
The goal of deterrence is to convince enemy decision-makers that an attack would be so unlikely to succeed or would result in such high costs that it is not worth the attempt, writes retired CIA officer and Threat Status contributor Daniel N. Hoffman.
“If our enemies perceive that our overriding goal, as the Biden administration has repeatedly stated, is to avoid escalation, then we risk sliding into a policy of appeasement, where our enemies do not believe we would impose significant costs if they ignored our warnings against action,” argues Mr. Hoffman.
“The stakes could not be higher,” he writes. “The current wars, in which we are only peripherally engaged, already have serious costs. Consider the massive shock to the world economy and our national security in the Pacific if China were to invade Taiwan. The Biden administration should build on the bipartisan consensus, which resulted in badly needed new military aid for Israel, Taiwan and Ukraine, to craft a more potent deterrence strategy.”
China’s national television, print and social media have released the latest pictures of the country’s third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which represents “a major step forward in the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, expansion and modernization program,” according to retired U.S. Navy Capt. Carl O. Schuster.
While the Fujian is still 10 to 14 months from becoming fully operational, it “reflects a trend that portends a coming challenge that the United States cannot ignore,” Mr. Schuster writes. “Its sea trials and subsequent operations will serve as experiments and a schoolhouse to refine the PLAN’s vision for its aircraft carrier force. …[The Fujian] is expected to have tactical combat capabilities approaching if not equal to those of the latest U.S. Navy aircraft carriers when the first unit enters service before this decade’s end.”
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