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CAIRO — A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas began Sunday as the Palestinian terrorist group released three hostages, marking a seismic shift driven primarily by President-elect Donald Trump’s return to Washington and his push for the two sides to reach a truce in the 15-month-old conflict.
Key questions hanging over the tense situation include whether Hamas will honor the terms of the ceasefire deal and who will govern the Gaza Strip over the long term.
On Sunday, the focus was on the three prisoners freed after 471 days in Hamas captivity: Romi Gonen, 24; Emily Damari, 28; and Doron Steinbrecher, 31. They were taken prisoner during Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, rampage that killed 1,200 civilians in Israel.
Hamas still holds nearly 100 hostages.
Israeli military officials confirmed that Hamas turned over the hostages to the Red Cross. Israeli officials said they were transported to Israel and were in good health.
Mr. Trump, set to be inaugurated Monday, celebrated the developments.
“Hostages starting to come out today! Three wonderful young women will be first,” the president-elect posted early Sunday on Truth Social.
President Biden echoed those sentiments in one of his final public appearances before leaving office.
“After so much pain, destruction, loss of life, today the guns in Gaza have gone silent,” Mr. Biden said during remarks in South Carolina. “Today’s ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages is a result of a principled and effective policy that we presided over for months.”
The Biden and Trump teams said they worked hand in hand on the ceasefire negotiations. Although the Biden administration has worked on the issue for more than a year, Mr. Trump’s political ascent seems to have helped push a deal across the finish line.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said as much during a televised address late Saturday.
“This agreement is also the result of cooperation between the outgoing administration of President Biden and the incoming administration of President Trump,” Mr. Netanyahu said. “From the moment he was elected, President Trump has been involved in the mission for the release of our hostages. He spoke with me Wednesday evening. He welcomed the agreement and rightly emphasized that the first stage of the agreement is a temporary ceasefire. That is what he said: a temporary ceasefire.”
SEE ALSO: ‘Hell to pay’: House Speaker Mike Johnson warns of retribution if Hamas breaks cease-fire
Indeed, Mr. Trump and his allies warned Hamas of significant consequences if the terrorist group failed to live up to the deal.
“You cannot allow Hamas … to be situated as they were, to have another Oct. 7. We just can’t. The Israelis can’t live under those conditions,” House Speaker Mike Johnson told NBC’s “Meet the Press” program Sunday. “Everyone around the world needs to know, as President[-elect Donald] Trump has made clear, that we stand with Israel and there will be hell to pay for Hamas if they violate these terms.”
The ceasefire is expected to be a three-phase arrangement.
The first phase, announced last week after a year of intensive mediation by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt, is scheduled for 42 days. In exchange for the release of hostages, Israeli forces are expected to pull back to a buffer zone in the Gaza Strip, potentially allowing tens of thousands of displaced Palestinian civilians to return home. Israel also released Palestinian prisoners as part of the agreement.
Negotiations over the second phase are expected to begin soon. Israeli Ambassador Michael Herzog told “Fox News Sunday” that implementing the remaining phases will be challenging.
“Second phase is the remaining live hostages, males. And then the third stage is about the bodies” of those killed, he said. “It’s going to be tough because both sides have their own demands and expectations. And to the extent that Hamas does not comply or live up to what they are required to do, then we’ll have to go back and apply pressure on them.”
What comes next in Gaza?
The critical political question of who will govern Gaza in the long run has been put off for another day.
The cast of characters and potential rivals with a role in Gaza include Israel, Hamas, the rival Palestinian Authority and neighboring Arab states whose buy-in on a new political arrangement could prove economically and diplomatically indispensable.
The Palestinian Authority, which has had no real presence in Gaza since being ousted in a bitter power struggle with Hamas nearly two decades ago, wasted no time in staking its claim. Even before the Israeli Cabinet formally voted on the ceasefire Friday, it said it was ready to fill the power vacuum in the enclave.
“The Palestinian government, under [President Mahmoud Abbas’] directives, has completed all preparations to assume full responsibility in Gaza,” including the return of the displaced, providing essential services, crossings management and reconstruction of the war-torn territory, a statement issued by the PA president’s office said.
Hamas has exercised complete control in Gaza since 2007. The rival Palestinian Authority, dominated by the Fatah movement, governs the West Bank.
Neighboring Egypt, which played a central role in the ceasefire negotiations, is also expected to have a major say in Gaza’s future.
Egypt’s deep involvement in Gaza is rooted in decades of historical, political and security ties. After the Arab-Israeli War in 1948, Cairo administered the Gaza Strip until the Six-Day War in 1967, when Israel took control of the territory.
These years of oversight left a legacy that continues to influence Cairo’s role as a key stakeholder in Gaza’s future. Egypt remains one of the primary mediators in conflicts involving Gaza and considers stability there as critical to its security.
Possible leaders in Gaza
Another key question is whether a figure is powerful enough to bring political stability to Gaza. One potential leader is Mohammed Dahlan, an exiled Palestinian politician in the UAE.
Known for his ties to Egypt and Persian Gulf states such as the UAE, Mr. Dahlan has leveraged Gulf-funded humanitarian initiatives to boost his profile.
“Dahlan has solid backing from the UAE and Egypt, giving him real influence,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political science professor at Gaza’s Al-Azhar University who is teaching at Northwestern University.
Mr. Dahlan’s potential return is controversial.
“His return would create political tensions, especially with Palestinians in the West Bank,” Mr. Abusada said.
Although Mr. Dahlan’s Democratic Reform Bloc has been active in Gaza’s reconstruction and humanitarian efforts, skepticism about his legitimacy persists.
“Dahlan doesn’t have the legitimacy to lead,” said retired Palestinian Authority employee Ahmed Nabhan. “The PLO is the recognized representative of the Palestinian people, and bypassing it undermines our national cause.”
Mr. Nabhan said in an interview that many Palestinians remain wary of outside-backed figures who do not represent national consensus.
Technocratic approach
Egypt has proposed a technocratic committee of independent professionals to oversee Gaza’s recovery. This approach, designed to bypass political infighting, also addresses Israeli objections to Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
“This plan could ease tensions while focusing on rebuilding efforts,” said Sara Sherif, an Egyptian analyst specializing in Israeli affairs. Egypt’s broader role, which includes logistical and technical assistance, was demonstrated in 2018 when Egyptian engineers repaired Gaza’s infrastructure after hostilities.
Ms. Sherif emphasized Egypt’s aim to promote unified governance between Gaza and the West Bank, though divisions within the rival Palestinian factions have hindered progress.
“For Cairo, the ultimate goal is a legitimate Palestinian authority capable of engaging in peace talks with Israel,” she said.
Hamas faces mounting criticism after nearly 15 months of fighting that have left, by Palestinian estimates, more than 46,000 civilians and militants dead and much of Gaza’s population centers in ruins.
Allegations of corruption, mismanagement, and prioritizing militant infrastructure over civilian welfare have marred its governance in the past, and its role in organizing the grisly Oct. 7 terrorist rampage across southern Israel leaves it even more unacceptable to many.
“Hamas must transform into a political party and join the PLO,” Mr. Nabhan said. “Otherwise, it risks fading into irrelevance.”
• Ben Wolfgang reported from Washington.
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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