BUENOS AIRES — President Trump refers to himself as “your favorite president” to supporters, but he has dubbed only one leader “my favorite president” — Argentina’s Javier Milei.
The firebrand libertarian and wild-haired disrupter from Buenos Aires was among a select group of heads of state Mr. Trump invited to his inauguration Monday. Argentines hope the special bond between the men will translate into tangible benefits for their country.
The two presidents have mutual admiration, but aligning their policies may be more problematic. They do not always agree ideologically, and both have shown a penchant for crushing previously close personal relationships. Analysts warn that putting too much of a stake in their friendship could be dangerous, particularly for Mr. Milei.
The Argentine leader is counting on the Trump administration’s help in upcoming negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, Buenos Aires’ main creditor. Washington traditionally holds significant sway over the organization.
During his visit to Washington, Mr. Milei mixed work and play and got the photo op he likely craved: an inaugural ball group portrait with Mr. Milei standing between Mr. Trump and Elon Musk, with the new president and the billionaire entrepreneur in tuxedos. Mr. Milei was feted at a lavish ball for Hispanic supporters of Mr. Trump, met with longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone and squeezed in a meeting with IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva before flying to Switzerland for the annual global economic summit in Davos.
During his first term in office, Mr. Trump established a similar rapport with President Mauricio Macri, a former businessman he knew from a joint New York City construction venture in the 1980s. In 2018, Mr. Trump helped the center-right Mr. Macri secure a $57 billion IMF loan.
Joaquin Morales Sola, a columnist for the La Nacion daily, predicted that Mr. Milei’s friendship with Mr. Trump will affect the restructuring of the outstanding debt.
It would be a mistake to expect Mr. Trump to exempt Argentina from his “America First” agenda simply to benefit a friend 5,000 miles to the south, Mr. Morales Sola said, as Mr. Macri learned when his American counterpart floated his $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan in 2018.
“Many of the investors [active] in developing countries took all their dollars to the United States and left Argentina in a crisis, without credit,” the commentator said. “Of course, it wasn’t a decision Trump made thinking of Macri, but it affected him.”
On the sensitive issue of trade, the rigorously pro-market Mr. Milei shares much less ideological common ground with the tariff-loving Mr. Trump than did Mr. Macri, Mr. Morales Sola said.
“Milei takes a position of openness of the economies; President Trump, as everybody knows, has a more protectionist position,” he said. “That’s where they’ll clash.”
Broad realignment
Beyond economic and financial matters, Mr. Milei’s broad realignment of Argentine foreign policy will likely shape the bond between the two men, said Tomas Mugica, a political scientist who teaches international relations at Buenos Aires’ Catholic University of Argentina.
Over competing Chinese and Indian offers, Mr. Milei acquired 24 F-16 fighter jets from NATO ally Denmark, has asked to join the alliance as a “global partner,” is seeking Argentina’s membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and has welcomed high-ranking U.S. military officials to strategically important South Atlantic bases, Mr. Mugica said. In 2023, Mr. Milei abruptly withdrew Argentina’s application to join the BRICS grouping, a loose alliance dominated by China and Russia that is seen in Washington as an explicit challenge to American global standing.
“The decisions Milei has taken up until now, without Trump in power, will have an impact,” he said. “He’s made very strong gestures of alignment with the United States, and that could well intensify during the Trump presidency.”
The newfound closeness with Washington contrasts sharply with the skeptical views of leftist former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Mr. Milei’s main domestic rival, but may go beyond even the close ties that Presidents Carlos Menem and George H.W. Bush established in the early 1990s.
“The alignment with the United States is more pronounced than the one Menem had [and] includes [close ties with] Israel, which really changes Argentina’s place in the world,” political scientist Marcos Novaro said.
Beyond policy, politics may explain why — in a region still dominated by center-left and leftist leaders with whom he shares little ideological overlap — Mr. Milei would tie himself to Mr. Trump, Mr. Novaro said.
“It plays down the fact that Latin America isn’t like that,” he said. “This departure from the region isn’t a problem for Milei because he’s on a different, more global wavelength.”
In many ways, Mr. Milei and Mr. Trump are cut from the same cloth, political strategist Gabriel Slavinsky said.
“Both presidents are outsiders [and] provocative, disruptive, firm in their convictions, and genuine when they express what they think and feel,” Mr. Slavinsky said. “In political terms, [such an] affinity can produce bonds of friendship that help strike a balance and find agreement.”
Risky bet
Staking too much on one personal relationship may be a dangerous game for Mr. Milei, mainly because he and Mr. Trump share a volatile history of turning former political allies into bitter enemies and the other way around.
Mr. Trump has derided his former defense secretary, former Marine Gen. James Mattis, as “the world’s most overrated general” and his former national security adviser John R. Bolton as “one of the dumbest people in Washington.” Former Vice President Mike Pence and six of Mr. Trump’s Cabinet-level officials from his first four years in office did not support his bid for a second term.
During his first year in office, Mr. Milei replaced some four dozen top government officials, including his Cabinet chief and foreign minister. Like Mr. Trump, Mr. Milei has had a public falling-out with his 2023 running mate and current vice president, Victoria Villarruel.
“This fight has a rich history that begins at the end of the [2023 presidential] campaign, with some posters on which they put Victoria Villarruel in the foreground,” Mr. Slavinsky said.
Mr. Milei later reneged on his promise to let Ms. Villarruel run two key areas, defense and national security, and their spat has reached the point where he now considers her a political opponent, Mr. Slavinsky said.
Given the clash with a second-in-line he once called “brilliant, trustworthy and honest,” Mr. Milei would do well to remember that “friendships” between politicians — and world leaders — tend to be strategic, political scientist Simon Koschut’s research suggests.
“It’s easy to forget that this kind of ‘friendship,’ in truth, is only based on shared interests,” said Mr. Koschut, who chairs the security policy department at Germany’s Zeppelin University. “And when these shared interests disappear — due to economic constraints, international political differences, what have you — the friendship is gone, too, which can quickly lead to misunderstandings.”
In the case of the “transactional” Mr. Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron came to regret his attempt to foster a sense of “bromance” with his American counterpart, Mr. Koschut said.
President Reagan’s closeness with British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher shows that “authentic, personal ties that merit the term ‘friendship’” exist on the world stage, Mr. Koschut said. Reagan’s relationship with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, which ended the arms race of the early 1980s, suggests that, on occasion, personal ties even have the power to alter relations between nations.
As one of three foreign leaders who attended the U.S. presidential inauguration, Mr. Milei made history alongside Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
Whether the warm feelings between the U.S. and Argentine leaders stand the test of time remains to be seen.
“We’ll see how much this harmony helps him with the concrete matters he has to tackle,” Mr. Novaro said. “But in principle, I’d say it’s got to be useful.”
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