CAIRO —The ceasefire deal between Israel and Palestinian Hamas militants was poised to receive a final endorsement from Israel’s Cabinet Friday and could take effect as early as Sunday, but the critical political question of who will govern Gaza over the long run has once again been put off for another day.
The three-phase deal, brokered by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, offers a temporary reprieve from violence and the promise that long-held Israeli and foreign hostages may soon be freed, but the territory’s future leadership is perhaps the pivotal issue that will shape Gaza’s recovery and the durability of regional stability for years and decades to come.
The cast of characters — and potentially rivals — with a role in Gaza include Israel, Hamas, the rival Palestinian Authority, and neighboring Arab states whose buy-in on a new political arrangement could prove economically and diplomatically indispensable.
The Palestinian Authority, which has had no real presence in Gaza since being ousted in a bitter power struggle with Hamas nearly two decades ago, wasted no time in staking its claim asserting even before the Israeli Cabinet had formally voted Friday hours that it was ready to fill the power vacuum in the devastated enclave.
“The Palestinian government, under [President Mahmud Abbas’] directives, has completed all preparations to assume full responsibility in Gaza,” including the return of the displaced, providing basic services, crossings management and reconstruction of the war-torn territory,” a statement issued by the PA president’s office said.
While Hamas has exercised full control in Gaza since 2007, its rival the Palestinian Authority (PA), dominated by the Fatah movement, runs the West Bank.
President Biden, who hands off the Middle East crisis to Donald Trump Monday, said in one of his last interviews in office this week that the question of Palestinian self-rule cannot be avoided much longer by Israel.
Israel “has to find a way to accommodate the legitimate concerns” of Palestinians for its own long-term sustainability, Mr. Biden told MSNBC Thursday. “And the idea that Israel is going to be able to sustain itself for the long term without accommodating the Palestinian question … it’s not going to happen.”
Egypt’s deep involvement in Gaza is rooted in decades of historical, political and security ties. After the Arab-Israeli War in 1948, Caiso administered the Gaza Strip until the Six-Day War in 1967, when Israel took control of the territory.
These years of oversight left a legacy that continues to influence Cairo’s role as a key stakeholder in Gaza’s future. Today, Egypt remains one of the primary mediators in conflicts involving Gaza, viewing stability there as critical to its own national security.
The agreement, announced on Wednesday, will unfold in three phases, beginning with a 42-day ceasefire and an initial release of Hamas hostages for Palestinians held in Israeli detention sites. Israeli forces are set to withdraw from densely populated areas of Gaza, a move designed to reduce immediate tensions.
However, critics question whether this deal is merely a temporary exchange to secure the release of hostages, with the risk of renewed violence once the ceasefire ends.
Egypt’s vision: A strategic perspective
Retired Major General Muhammad Ibrahim, now an analyst with the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies (ECSS) and a key figure in the celebrated 2011 prisoner exchange deal that freed Israeli soldier Gad Shalit, views Gaza’s future governance as directly tied to Egypt’s national security.
“The Gaza Strip, with its approximately 8.7-mile border with Egypt, falls within our immediate security sphere,” he said. “Any arrangements for the Strip must align with our national security interests and involve ongoing coordination with Egypt.”
To address the complexities of post-war Gaza, Gen. Ibrahim has proposed a “Community Support Committee” to manage the Strip temporarily. This committee, approved by presidential decree from Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, would include respected Palestinian professionals and operate with the consensus of all factions.
“This committee would restore normalcy to Gaza across critical areas of daily life and create a path toward stability,” Gen. Ibrahim said in an interview with The Washington Times. “Once Gaza reaches a stable state, governance should transition to the Palestinian government, whether it’s the current leadership or a new one.”
Egypt’s strategic interests go beyond governance. Its plans include providing logistical, technical and security support, such as training Palestinian security forces to maintain stability in Gaza. “We are fully prepared to reopen the Rafah crossing under its previous system and help facilitate aid delivery,” Gen. Ibrahim added.
Palestinian perspective
For many Palestinians, the prospect of international or Arab peacekeeping forces in Gaza represents the most viable path to stability. Doubts about both Hamas, decimated by the war, and the aging leadership of the Palestinian Authority run deep.
Fedaa Zeyad, a teacher and writer from Gaza City displaced to Deir El Balah by the war, sees this as a crucial opportunity. “We need an Arab or international force to organize matters in Gaza because the situation has failed with the Palestinian Authority to protect our rights through the Oslo Agreement,” she said.
Ms. Zeyad also highlighted the challenges posed by Israel’s actions.
“At the same time, there is arrogance and tyranny from the Israeli occupation that we do not forget or deny, as it tries to eliminate the existence of the Palestinian Authority, and it constantly kills Palestinians in Gaza under the pretext that it is fighting Hamas,” she added. “Why do we give the occupation a pretext to commit crimes against us? I believe that having an Arab or international force to work with and rehabilitate the sector anew is the most appropriate solution.”
Ms. Zeyad’s comments underscore what many in the region see as the need for a neutral force to oversee Gaza’s reconstruction and prevent further political turmoil, ensuring humanitarian aid reaches the people rather than being diverted to factions.
Possible leaders
One potential leader is Mohammed Dahlan, an exiled Palestinian politician based in the UAE. Known for his ties to Egypt and Gulf states like the UAE, Mr. Dahlan has leveraged Gulf-funded humanitarian initiatives to boost his profile.
“Dahlan has solid backing from the UAE and Egypt, giving him real influence,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political science professor at Gaza’s Al Azhar University, currently teaching at Northwestern University. However, Mr. Dahlan’s potential return is controversial. “His return would create political tensions, especially with Palestinians in the West Bank,” Abusada added.
While Mr. Dahlan’s Democratic Reform Bloc has been active in Gaza’s reconstruction and humanitarian efforts, skepticism about his legitimacy persists.
“Dahlan doesn’t have the legitimacy to lead,” said retired Palestinian Authority employee Ahmed Nabhan. “The PLO is the recognized representative of the Palestinian people, and bypassing it undermines our national cause.” Mr. Nabhan said in an interview that many Palestinians remain wary of outside-backed figures who do not represent national consensus.
Technocratic approach
Egypt has proposed a technocratic committee of independent professionals to oversee Gaza’s recovery. This approach, designed to bypass political infighting, also addresses Israeli objections to both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
“This plan could ease tensions while focusing on rebuilding efforts,” said Sara Sherif, an Egyptian analyst specializing in Israeli affairs. Egypt’s broader role, which includes logistical and technical assistance, was demonstrated in 2018 when Egyptian engineers repaired Gaza’s infrastructure after hostilities.
Ms. Sherif emphasized Egypt’s aim to promote unified governance between Gaza and the West Bank, though divisions within the rival Palestinian factions have hindered progress. “For Cairo, the ultimate goal is a legitimate Palestinian authority capable of engaging in peace talks with Israel,” she said.
Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, faces mounting criticism after nearly 15 months of fighting that have left — by the Palestinians’ own estimate — more than 46,000 civilians and militants dead and much of Gaza’s population centers in ruins.. Allegations of corruption, mismanagement, and prioritizing militant infrastructure over civilian welfare have marred its governance in the past, and its role in organizing the deadly October 7, 2023 terror rampage across southern Israel leave it even more unacceptable to many.
“Hamas must transform into a political party and join the PLO,” said Nabhan. “Otherwise, it risks fading into irrelevance.”
However, concerns persist that Hamas could use the ceasefire to regroup. Seth J. Frantzman, executive director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis, warned that Hamas has a history of leveraging reconstruction funds to consolidate power.
“Hamas knows Israel doesn’t want to reoccupy Gaza and will use that to its advantage,” he said.
Community Perspectives and the Path Forward
The role of Gaza’s influential clans in restoring stability cannot be overlooked. These clans, long-standing pillars of Gaza’s social structure, could play a critical role in facilitating local governance. However, fears of retaliation from Hamas and accusations of collaboration with Israel have made many clan leaders hesitant to step forward.
Abu Salman al-Mughani, head of Gaza’s tribal council, emphasized the potential for clans to contribute to governance. “Clans can help restore stability by working with the PA or international actors,” he said. Nevertheless, ensuring their protection and autonomy will be critical to their involvement.
The ceasefire brokered by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States offers a temporary reprieve, but as Professor Dalal Iriqat of Arab American University in Ramallah noted, sustainable peace requires addressing the root causes of the conflict. “Gaza is part of Palestine — there’s no way around that. Any serious peace agreement must tackle humanitarian, political, economic, and security issues together,” she said. “It also has to include a concrete plan to end the Israeli occupation, with clear boundaries and a firm timeline.”
“The people of Gaza deserve a future of peace, stability, and opportunity—not one defined by endless rivalries and conflict,” said Rami Kullab, a strategic planning specialist in Gaza.
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