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OPINION:
The Budapest Memorandum of December 1994 provided security assurances to Ukraine for giving up their nuclear weapons. It prohibited Russia, the U.S. and the U.K. from threatening or using military or economic coercion against Ukraine and to respect Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty.
In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. The war of aggression continues, with estimates of 700,000 Ukrainians killed or wounded and 220,000 Russian soldiers killed with Russian casualties exceeding 800,000. The Socio-economic carnage to Ukraine is tragic, with over 8 million Ukrainians seeking refuge in neighboring countries.
North Korea reportedly sent more than 11,000 special forces troops to aid Russia in its war of aggression in Ukraine. This is in addition to the artillery shells and ballistic missiles North Korea is providing to Russia. North Korea reportedly receives $2,000 for each of their soldiers in Russia, while gaining valuable warfighting expertise. This is in addition to the likely satellite, ballistic missile and nuclear assistance they’re getting from Russia.
North Korea’s embrace of Russia and its war of aggression in Ukraine was a stark message mainly to the U.S. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 2024 visit to Pyongyang for meetings with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and the signing of a new Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, committing each to come to the aid of the other if either is invaded, was North Korea’s pivot to the Russian Federation.
After thirty years of seeking a normal relationship with the U.S., Mr. Kim gave up on the U.S. He aligned North Korea to Russia as part of the axis of authoritarian states – Russia, China, Iran and China.
Last week, North Korea successfully launched an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) with a hypersonic warhead. Not surprisingly, the launch was conducted during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to South Korea. Last year, North Korea successfully launched the Hwasong-19, a solid-fuel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that can carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) and can target the whole of the U.S.
North Korea’s state media KCNA reported that during last month’s Plenum of the Central Committee of the Worker’s Party, Mr. Kim said North Korea would adopt the “toughest” strategy to counteract the U.S., claiming the alliance of the U.S., South Korea and Japan is a “nuclear military bloc” and South Korea has been an “anti-communist” outpost for the U.S.
As expected, Mr. Kim also said North Korea would “bolster the country’s war deterrence.” Of note, a new premier was appointed – Pak Thae Song – and Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui – the first woman to hold this position — was promoted to the Politburo Bureau of the Party’s Central Committee. Interestingly, Ms. Choe is an American specialist who participated in all official and Track 1.5 unofficial meetings with the U.S., starting in 2003 with the Six Party Talks.
Having negotiated with North Korea from 2003 to 2016, Pyongyang had one recurrent goal: a normal relationship with the U.S. In 1994 and 2005, with the Agreed Framework and the Joint Statement of the Six Party Talks, there was progress with North Korea. Indeed, President-elect Donald Trump established a close and productive relationship with Mr. Kim. The 2018 Singapore Summit was successful, but the 2019 Hanoi Summit ended abruptly, given Mr. Kim’s refusal to declare all nuclear facilities. A subsequent DMZ meeting was symbolic but noteworthy, given the strong personal relationship between Messrs. Trump and Kim.
Giving up on North Korea should not be an option for the U.S. and its allies and partners. For 30 years, Pyongyang sought a normal relationship with the U.S., Which would provide North Korea with security assurances, economic development assistance and international legitimacy. An alignment with Russia commits a heavily sanctioned North Korea to international pariah status with no hope of international development assistance. This is not what Mr. Kim wants. His father, Kim Jong il, and his grandfather, Kim il Sung, would expect more from Mr. Kim.
Russia’s embrace of North Korea is tactical. Once North Korea ceases to be of value, Mr. Putin will move on, as Russia did in the past when they downgraded relations with North Korea in 1995. An ambitious Mr. Putin is using North Korea, determined to recreate the Russian empire.
Hopefully, the Trump administration will make North Korea a priority issue. President-elect Donald Trump can use his close personal relationship with Mr. Kim to reengage with North Korea, with the immediate prospect of sanctions relief and security assurances, in return for a halt to nuclear tests and missile launches and the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons. North Korea’s goal will be a normal relationship with the U.S. Our goal should be complete and verifiable denuclearization, something that will require years to accomplish.
• Joseph R. DeTrani is the former Director of East Asia Operations at the Central Intelligence Agency and the former Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks with North Korea (2003-2006) and the former Director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views are the author’s and not any government agency or department.
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