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KYIV, Ukraine — It’s hard to disrupt a stalemated war that will pass the three-year mark this month, but the shift in power in Washington has managed to do that.
President Trump’s first declarations on the war have drawn mixed reactions from Ukrainian officials, but some want to believe he will be a more effective ally than President Biden. Meanwhile, pro-war Russian bloggers are seething at what they say is Mr. Trump’s “contempt” for their cause.
Mr. Trump’s campaign pledge to end the war in a day has come and gone. Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, his designated envoy to resolving the conflict, has canceled a planned fact-finding trip to Kyiv and has yet to publicly announce a makeup date. Mr. Trump has threatened more sanctions and tariffs on Russia but has implemented no new policies.
Kyiv sharply denied Mr. Kellogg’s claim over the weekend that Ukraine was realizing it may have to cede some territory. “Both sides will give a little bit,” the U.S. envoy told Fox News.
Russian forces are making slow but steady gains in the occupied south and east.
The Russia-Ukraine war was a consuming interest of the Biden administration, but Mr. Trump’s early foreign policy forays have focused on immigration detainee policy with Colombia, tariffs on allies and adversaries alike, and U.S. territorial claims on Greenland and the Panama Canal.
Many Ukrainians noted the paradox: Although the U.S. campaign and election were of all-consuming interest in Ukraine, Mr. Trump’s early days in office have put this besieged and war-weary country on the policy back burner.
“Ukrainians were very closely monitoring the campaign itself,” said Ihor Petrenko, a political scientist at Kyiv’s Taras Shevchenko National University. “The reactions to the result were split about 50/50. On one hand, some were afraid of what Trump’s victory could mean for Ukraine.”
He noted mounting frustration with the cautious Biden administration, whose slow-rolling of advanced military aid was a constant source of frustration for the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“In spite of the gratitude repeatedly expressed by Ukraine’s government and citizens alike for the military and humanitarian aid provided by Washington, many felt that the Biden administration was slow to help, deathly afraid of any escalation with Moscow and hamstringing Kyiv’s ability to defend itself by forbidding until very recently the use of American-made weapons on Russian territory.”
In a piece published recently on the Ukrainian website Glavkom, Mr. Petrenko said “a new era for the U.S. and the world” was about to begin. The U.S. president had “already demonstrated his willingness to cooperate, emphasizing the possibility of a personal meeting with the Ukrainian leader after the inauguration.”
Speaking with The Washington Times, Mr. Petrenko said Mr. Trump’s election was a cause for hope and concern in Ukraine.
“Trump’s statements on the campaign trail have done little to reassure Ukrainians, and everyone remembered his previous meetings with Putin and his fondness for the Russian dictator,” he said. “However, part of the Ukrainian public also remembered that Trump was the one who gave us the Javelin [anti-tank missiles], not Obama.”
As Mr. Trump’s key defense and national security nominations, notably new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, settle into their posts, U.S. military aid to Ukraine remains an outstanding question. Many in the president’s inner circle and some of his Cabinet picks have opposed continued support for Kyiv.
Humanitarian aid has been affected by the sudden and unexpected freeze on all foreign assistance Mr. Trump decreed on his first days back in office. He called for a review to ensure the funds were spent under his “America First” foreign policy.
Hints at a policy
Amid the swirl of other foreign policy controversies, Mr. Trump has given hints for his approach to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Mr. Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social on Jan. 22 that he did not wish to “harm Russia,” but it was time for President Vladimir Putin to “settle now and stop this ridiculous war.” He argued that it was in the Kremlin’s interest to halt the bloody and economically ruinous war.
“All of that being said, I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR,” Mr. Trump wrote.
Although relatively mild by Mr. Trump’s online standards and even heaping praise on the Russian people for their sacrifices in World War II, the message has been met with mockery and anger by pro-war Russian bloggers and Telegram channels. One of them derided the U.S. president as an “old orange clown” and complained that Mr. Trump’s use of the words “must” and “immediately” when addressing the Russian leadership were “beyond the boundaries of diplomacy and even beyond the boundaries of anything reasonable.”
Still, the unexpectedly strong tone of the post triggered a sigh of relief among Ukrainians.
“Trump’s recent statements have been encouraging. Ukrainians feel that they are getting positive feedback,” Mr. Petrenko said. “And the fact that the administration has signaled that they will try to conduct consultations with Kyiv, with other partners, and reading the articles that Keith Kellogg wrote and his proposals, it has had a calming effect for Kyiv.”
The Kremlin seems to have chosen the high road regarding Mr. Trump’s goading comments. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters late last month that Mr. Putin was “ready” to talk directly with the U.S. president, unlike the diplomatic deep freeze that prevailed for most of Mr. Biden’s tenure.
“We are waiting for signals. Everyone is ready,” Mr. Peskov said of Moscow’s readiness to “talk” with Mr. Trump. “It’s hard to read the tea leaves here,” he added, seemingly nudging Washington to reach out to Moscow.
Unlike some of the most hawkish Russian commentators, Mr. Putin struck a decidedly conciliatory tone during a Jan. 24 address on state TV, where he echoed some of Mr. Trump’s favorite talking points. “If [Mr. Trump’s] victory hadn’t been stolen in 2020, then maybe there would not have been the crisis in Ukraine that emerged in 2022.”
Mr. Trump appears content to keep his options open while hinting that more may be happening behind the scenes.
He told reporters Sunday that discussions involving Ukraine and Russia were progressing but provided few details.
“We have meetings and talks scheduled with various parties, including Ukraine and Russia. And I think those discussions are actually going pretty well,” Mr. Trump said.
It remains to be seen whether attempts to cajole the notoriously unpredictable U.S. president to favor one side or the other will work, but it has not gone unnoticed in Kyiv. Andriy Yermak, a top adviser to Mr. Zelenskyy, struck back on Telegram at what he said was an attempt to negotiate Ukraine’s future without involving either Ukraine or Europe.
“This is not going to happen. Putin needs to come back to reality himself, or he will be brought back,” Mr. Yermak wrote on his Telegram channel. “This is not how it works in the modern world.”
Seemingly well aware of Russia’s vulnerabilities, Mr. Trump told an online audience of top business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that he would “ask Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries to lower the cost of oil.”
“I’m frankly surprised they didn’t do it before the election. Not doing it wasn’t exactly a show of love,” he added.
OPEC+ said Monday that it will not change its plan to gradually increase oil production in the spring.
Lowering prices, with the pressure of continued sanctions, would strike a significant blow to the Russian economy, which is still heavily reliant on the sale of oil and gas to sustain itself and the country’s war effort in Ukraine. An emboldened Kyiv has been increasing the frequency of its drone strikes against Russia’s oil and gas extraction, refinement and transport infrastructure.
“Trump came and said that we will pay attention to the energy, and if he manages to do what he promised, it will definitely accelerate the end of the war,” Mr. Petrenko said. “And this is exactly what Ukraine wants, and what President Zelenskyy has been talking about: realistic and effective security guarantees that create a situation in which any further or new aggression against Ukraine will have a devastating effect on the Russian Federation.”
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