Former President Donald Trump trails President Biden by just 7 points in New York state, according to a recent poll of registered voters in the deep blue state.
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 survey of New York voters shows Mr. Biden with 48% support, while 41% support Mr. Trump. Twelve percent are undecided.
The Democratic president won the state in 2020 by more than triple that margin, getting 60.9% to Mr. Trump’s 37.8%.
Mr. Biden’s lead increases to 10 points, 55% to 45% when undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward.
With third-party candidates on the ballot, 44% support Mr. Biden, 38% Mr. Trump, 6% Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% Cornel West and 1% Jill Stein. Eleven percent are undecided.
“Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of 10 points, 43% to 33%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
The poll also shows Mr. Biden holds a 39% job approval in New York, while 50% of New York voters disapprove of the job he’s doing.
The Emerson College Polling New York survey was conducted May 28-29, days before a New York jury found Mr. Trump guilty of 34 felony counts related to falsifying business records.
New York voters were asked about Mr. Trump’s criminal trial regarding the charges, including a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels.
Twenty-seven percent expected the jury to find him guilty on all counts, 44% guilty on some counts but not all, and 29% not guilty on all counts.
Based on what they heard about the trial, 46% of respondents would have found Mr. Trump guilty on all counts, 20% guilty on some and 34% not guilty on all counts.
Despite his legal troubles in his native city, Mr. Trump told a crowd of over 25,000 supporters in the South Bronx recently that he’s making a play for the liberal state.
The last time a Republican president won New York was in 1984, when President Ronald Reagan won 49 states in a landslide against Democrat Walter Mondale.
The survey also shows that the economy is the top issue for 34% of New York voters, followed by immigration (16%), crime (13%), housing affordability (12%), health care (8%), threats to democracy (7%) and education (5%).
Forty-four percent of voters think more crime is in their region compared with one year ago, while 41% think about the same exists. Sixteen percent say there’s less crime.
A New York Times Siena poll released last month showed Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump in the Empire State by 47% to 37%.
That survey also revealed that 4% would vote for someone else, 7% wouldn’t vote and 5% didn’t know whom to vote for or refused to respond.
The Emerson College Polling New York surveyed 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
• Kerry Picket can be reached at kpicket@washingtontimes.com.
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