Former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are promoting the idea that Virginia will be in play in the general election this fall.
It’s part of Mr. Trump’s ambitious quest to push into traditionally Democratic territory, which has included a rally in the Bronx, New York, and a campaign foray into Minnesota.
Virginia was a reliably Republican state in presidential elections for decades. That changed in 2008 when Sen. Barack Obama carried the state over Sen. John McCain.
Since then, Democrats have dominated presidential elections in Virginia. In 2020, Joseph R. Biden outperformed Mr. Trump by 10 percentage points.
Buoyed by polls suggesting the American electorate is experiencing buyer’s remorse with Mr. Biden, Team Trump and his allies say Virginia is within reach.
“What we’ve demonstrated is common-sense conservative policies work, and Virginians appreciate that,” Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, said in a recent interview.
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Mr. Youngkin said his victory in the 2021 gubernatorial race showed Virginians’ support of the Biden-led Democrats waned in less than one year.
He said voters recognize that conservative policies adopted on his watch have helped generate a “rip-roaring economy,” deliver safer communities, and advance an education agenda that does not allow for “equity to replace excellence in our schools.”
“All of a sudden, they see a massive disparity between what Joe Biden stands for and what Donald Trump stands for,” he said. “So, yeah, Virginia is in play.”
Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign who gained early experience in Virginia politics, recently shared a similar message with donors.
Democrats say Republicans underestimate voters’ goodwill for Mr. Biden and lingering distaste for Mr. Trump.
“President Biden has delivered for Virginians unlike Donald Trump, who failed to improve infrastructure, overturned Roe v. Wade, and failed working-class people,” said Susan Swecker, chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia. “We are confident that when Virginians go to the polls, they will reject Trump’s lies and mission to destroy democracy and reelect Biden to continue growing our economy and protecting and expanding our rights.”
The Biden campaign was sent a request for comment.
Mr. Youngkin’s victory in 2021 capped a big night for Republicans. Jason Miyares was elected attorney general, and Winsome Sears won the race for lieutenant governor.
Democrats flipped control of the House of Delegates and retained control of the state Senate in elections last year.
Virginia voters will also decide this fall whether to reward Sen. Tim Kaine, a Democrat who served as Hillary Clinton’s 2016 running mate, with another six-year term.
Republicans have not held a U.S. Senate seat in Virginia since Sen. John Warner retired in 2009.
Political analysts also are less bullish than Republicans about Mr. Trump’s chances of flipping Virginia.
“I would say the Republicans could win here if everything goes right for them,” said J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
He said the Republicans’ path to victory has become more difficult with the growth and demographic shift in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads and the Richmond suburbs.
“That said, if current polling holds up, Biden does seem to have some legit weakness with minority voters,” Mr. Coleman said.
Mr. Youngkin also could prove to be a wild card. Virginia does not allow governors to serve two conservative terms, and he could be the sole Republican from a Democratic-leaning state on Mr. Trump’s list of possible running mates.
Some polls suggest Mr. Biden is vulnerable in Virginia five months before Election Day.
A recent McLaughlin & Associates poll showed Mr. Biden with a 40% to 37% lead over Mr. Trump when third-party contenders, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are included. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Mr. Biden held a 48% to 44% lead over Mr. Trump.
“Donald Trump is right on the heels of Joe Biden in every competitive ballot scenario with and without Robert F. Kennedy Jr.,” the pollsters said.
Another warning sign for Mr. Biden is his approval rating. It was far worse than top Virginia leaders from both sides of the aisle.
The president had 41% approval and 56% disapproval.
Meanwhile, 53% approved of Mr. Youngkin and 36% disapproved. For Mr. Kaine, 54% approved and 28% disapproved.
“Joe Biden is so weak, and Democrats are in such disarray, that not only is President Trump winning every traditional battleground state, but longtime blue states such as Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey are now in play. President Trump is on offense with a winning message and growing his movement every single day,” said Karoline Leavitt of the Trump campaign. “Joe Biden’s campaign should be terrified.”
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly attributed a quote by Susan Swecker, chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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