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Former President Donald Trump is ready to campaign where no other Republican White House hopeful has been since Ronald Reagan: in the Bronx.
Mr. Trump will hold a rally on Thursday in the New York borough because it provides an ideal backdrop to remind voters that he is not a traditional Republican. The Bronx is the most demographically diverse area of the country and the poorest in the city.
He is also sending a warning shot across Democrats’ bow that he is coming for the Obama coalition.
“He is trying to prove, rightfully so, that he is a man of the people, and the people he is talking to are Latinos and people across the country who he believes are upset with Democrats, who are suffering from inflation, crime and chaos,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a New York-based Democratic Party strategist. “It is part of the showmanship to show the MAGA Republicans are multicolored and multiethnic.
“Democrats will just assume Trump can’t win New York, which is true, and assume he can’t do well with Latinos, which is probably not true,” he said, pointing to 2016 exit polls that showed Mr. Trump pulled more Hispanic support than 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
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Still, Mr. Trump’s chances of becoming the first Republican since Reagan to carry New York in a presidential race are slim.
The Bronx rally nevertheless gives him a platform to build on his stronger-than-expected appeal with young, Black and brown voters who have soured on Mr. Biden.
“What you’re seeing is the old Obama coalition come apart. Biden can’t hold them together,” said Trump pollster John McLaughlin. “What they’re really upset about is high prices and cost of living, and also, specifically in the Bronx, crime is out of control.”
A recent New York Times/Sienna College poll of voters found that 14% of voters across six swing states who said they voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 are now planning to vote for Mr. Trump or a third-party contender or sit out the election. The poll also found that Mr. Biden’s support among young, Black and Hispanic voters is eroding.
Mr. McLaughlin said the number of Blacks and Hispanics who have switched their support from Mr. Biden to Mr. Trump is big enough to swing the election this fall.
“It’s a real bold statement on President Trump’s part to say, ‘I’m not just going to beat you, you know, in the battleground states, I’m going to beat you, in effect, on your home court,’” Mr. McLaughlin said. “‘I’m going to go into the Bronx, and I’m going to take votes from you.’”
Since mid-April, Mr. Trump has been trapped for four days a week on the 15th floor of a courthouse in lower Manhattan, where he has been charged with doctoring business records to cover up hush money payments to an adult film star before the 2016 election.
From a campaign perspective, the 77-year-old has been forced to improvise. On his way into and out of the courtroom, he has delivered regular diatribes against his political opponents and the legal system and pontificated on the news on the day.
He has supplemented that with sporadic appearances across the city, meetings with foreign dignitaries, and occasional rallies and fundraisers in key battleground states.
Ahead of the Bronx rally, Democrats are on the attack.
Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat who represents the area, said Mr. Trump has been working against the interests of the working poor since his time as a real estate developer.
“Neither Trump nor the Republican Party is a friend of the South Bronx,” Mr. Torres said in a New York Daily News op-ed. “Faced with 91 felony counts, Trump is a criminal suspect whose priority is self-preservation by self-pardon, the path to which runs through his presidency.
“The only place in the Bronx where Trump has any business being is in Bronx Criminal Court on 161st St. and the Grand Concourse,” he said.
The Trump campaign says the trip shows that Mr. Trump is “committed to easing these financial burdens and restoring law and order, ensuring safer, more prosperous futures for all communities.”
“By going to the South Bronx, President Trump is willing to do what Joe Biden can’t: meet people where they’re at. Join us as he shares his vision for uplifting and protecting Black and brown communities in New York and all across America,” said Janiyah Thomas, the Trump campaign’s Black media director.
What is clear is Mr. Trump’s Bronx rally is keeping the spotlight on him.
“Look, there is zero chance New York is a competitive state when it comes to the electoral map, but if they can use that backdrop to control national media coverage and go on offense, they have to seize that opportunity,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican Party strategist who cut his political teeth in nearby Yonkers.
“The other important rule they understand well is that the campaign that’s on offense and controlling the tempo of the race always wins,” said Mr. Madden, a top adviser to the Romney 2012 campaign. “The Bronx platform is obviously not as ideal for their campaign as, say, Grand Rapids, [Michigan,] but as long as they can stay on the attack against Biden, it can serve a purpose.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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