Former President Donald Trump is within striking distance of President Biden in Minnesota, lending weight to the idea that the Republican could put Democratic-friendly territory into play this fall.
A Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll released Monday shows Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 45% to 41% among likely voters in the state, with 7% undecided and 6% rallying around independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita suggested at a donor retreat this year that Mr. Trump is poised to compete strongly in Minnesota and Virginia.
The Trump campaign is making a concerted effort to connect with parts of the electorate that have traditionally leaned Democratic or refused to give Republican presidential contenders a good look.
Mr. Trump is making a play for young, Hispanic and Black voters, the so-called Obama coalition that has been key to the success of Democrats in elections.
If Mr. Trump can parlay that strategy into victories in states such as Virginia and Minnesota, he would dash Mr. Biden’s chances of winning reelection.
Some polls suggest Mr. Biden is vulnerable in Virginia.
A recent McLaughlin & Associates poll showed Mr. Biden with a 40% to 37% lead over Mr. Trump when third-party contenders, including Mr. Kennedy, are included. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Mr. Biden held a 48% to 44% lead over Mr. Trump.
“Donald Trump is right on the heels of Joe Biden in every competitive ballot scenario with and without Robert F. Kennedy Jr.,” the pollsters said.
Still, putting the two states into play remains daunting. Political analysts say Mr. Biden’s campaign would have to collapse.
President Nixon, in 1972, was the last Republican to win Minnesota in a race for the White House.
Mr. Trump nearly accomplished the feat in 2016 when he flipped Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to the Republican side and lost Minnesota to Hillary Clinton by 1.4 percentage points.
It marked the closest a Republican had come to capturing the state since President Reagan lost there by less than 1 percentage point to native Walter Mondale in 1984.
In 2020, Mr. Biden outperformed Mr. Trump in Minnesota by 7 percentage points.
The survey of 800 likely Minnesota voters carried warning signs for Mr. Biden, including a massive enthusiasm gap, and highlighted Mr. Trump’s challenges in and around Minneapolis and St. Paul.
Among voters who said they were enthusiastic about their chosen candidate, Mr. Trump had a 62% to 31% edge over Mr. Biden.
Mr. Biden’s job rating is also underwater, with 53% disapproving and 46% approving of his performance as president. For Mr. Trump, 52% disapprove and 47% approve of his performance as president.
That marks an uptick from the same survey in September 2020, when 43% approved of Mr. Trump’s performance.
The survey was conducted June 3-5 and had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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