Ballot access for long-shot presidential candidates poised to shake up vote in November

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is chipping away toward the goal of being on the ballot in states across the country, increasing the chances he will influence the outcome of the White House race.

Mr. Kennedy has cleared the bar in Utah and recently collected the signatures needed to appear on the ballot in New Hampshire.

He has also decided to work smarter, not harder, in a half-dozen states — California, Delaware, Hawaii, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas — where he filed a petition to create a new political party, which is an easier way to get onto the ballot in those states than running as an unaffiliated candidate.

“We have the field teams, volunteers, legal teams, paid circulators, supporters and strategists ready to get the job done,” said Kennedy campaign spokesperson Stefanie Spear. “Mr. Kennedy will be on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.”

Mr. Kennedy is not alone.

Cornel West, a prominent Black liberal academic and independent presidential candidate, is making ballot inroads, while No Labels, the group laying the foundation for a bipartisan “unity ticket,” is on the ballot in more than a dozen states.

The Green Party and the Libertarian Party have also secured ballot access in several states, including key battleground states.

The prospect of third-party contenders appearing on the ballot alongside the likely rematch of President Biden and former President Donald Trump has started a guessing game about which one would be hurt or helped more by spoilers.

The threat of a third-party spoiler is heightened by the razor-thin margins in battleground states that decided the past two White House races.

Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump in 2020 by a little more than 40,000 votes combined in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.

Four years earlier, Mr. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by fewer than 80,000 votes combined in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Disgruntled Democrats laid some of the blame for the 2016 loss on Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate who received 51,000 votes in Michigan and 31,000 votes in Wisconsin, which likely helped Mr. Trump by pulling far-left voters away from Mrs. Clinton.

Ms. Stein is running again as a Green Party candidate, reviving concerns that she could hurt Mr. Biden. Meanwhile, Mr. Kennedy could siphon support from Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, given his Democratic pedigree and his embrace of some conservative positions.

“So long as there is a Democratic and Republican nominee running in the election, I can’t imagine any third party candidate winning even a single state,” said Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

“But the dissatisfaction with the likely nominees, Trump and Biden, could create a situation similar to 2016, where at least a mid-single-digits percentage of the electorate votes third party,” he said. “That could have a bearing on who wins.”

Ballot access requirements are not onerous in most states, but they can be challenging for independent candidates starting their campaigns and ballot access operations from scratch.

It is a different story for Libertarian, Green and other minor party candidates because those groups already have some organization and ballot access in many states.

The Green Party’s website shows it is on the ballot in 19 states and the District of Columbia, including the battlegrounds of Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The party is also fighting ballot access legal battles in four states and making progress in three other states, including Georgia, according to its website.

The Libertarian Party is on the ballot in 35 states. The list includes Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Mr. Kennedy, who ran as a Democrat before switching to run as an independent, has not ruled out joining the Libertarians. Such a move would eliminate most of his hurdles to ballot access.

“That is something we are looking at,” Mr. Kennedy said recently on CNN. “We have a really good relationship with the Libertarian Party.”

The Libertarian Party did not respond to requests for comment.

No Labels, meanwhile, plans to announce whether it will field a presidential ticket after the Super Tuesday nomination contests on March 5.

The bipartisan group has qualified to be on the ballot in 14 states: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and Utah. Plus, it has filed for ballot access or is collecting signatures in 13 more states.

“We are on schedule and on budget, and we are well ahead of where Ross Perot was in 1992, who had not even gathered signatures at this point in the cycle,” said Maryanne Martini, a No Labels spokesperson. “If we go forward with a Unity Ticket, we have complete confidence it will be on the ballot in all 50 states and DC.”

Mr. West has made his way onto the ballots in Alaska and Oregon thanks to the support of the newly founded Alaska Aurora Party and the Progressive Party in Oregon.

Edwin DeJesus, a West spokesperson, said the campaign has a 50-state strategy and is in the “early stages of forming the Justice for All Party, currently focusing on North Carolina, Florida and Washington state.”

“This list of states is fluid, guided by our movement’s feedback and active participation,” Mr. DeJesus said. “Our volunteer team is dedicated to this nationwide effort and looks forward to more successes.”