CHISINAU, Moldova — On a frigid morning in Moldova’s capital, 39-year-old postal worker Petru Murzin braces for a difficult winter as he braces for a looming energy shortage that could leave many Moldovans in this landlocked East European country with “no heating, no light.”
His concerns aren’t unfounded.
On Jan. 1, Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom is set to halt gas supplies to the European Union candidate country over an alleged $709 million debt for past supplies. That figure is fiercely disputed by Moldova’s pro-Western government, which has accused the Kremlin of weaponizing energy as a political tool to destabilize the country.
“I feel that we’ve entered a crisis that is quite difficult to resolve,” Mr. Murzin said in Chisinau. “Price increases are one thing, but when there is no gas at all, that’s something entirely different.”
The blockade will stop gas flowing to the Kuciurgan power plant, the country’s largest, which is situated in the separatist pro-Russian Transnistria region in this onetime Soviet republilc. The gas-operated plant generates electricity that powers a significant portion of Moldova proper.
Transnistria, which broke away after a short war in 1992 and is not recognized by most countries, also declared its own state of emergency earlier this month, fearing the region will not receive gas supplies. A large majority of Transnistria’s 470,000 people speak Russian as their first language and some 200,000 are Russian citizens.
On Dec. 13, Moldova’s parliament voted in favor of imposing a state of emergency in the energy sector, as the looming crisis threatened to leave the country without sufficient energy this winter, sparking fears it could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, where the impact of the gas cutoff could be immediately felt.
Many observers have predicted that the energy shortage could force residents in Transnistria to travel to Moldova to seek basic amenities to get through winter, a season in which temperatures throughout the country regularly drop below freezing.
Cristian Cantir, a Moldovan associate professor of international relations at Oakland University, says that the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely trying to exploit a “potential humanitarian crisis in Transnistria to overwhelm Moldova’s already-strained resources” to amplify tensions between Chisinau and the region’s de facto capital, Tiraspol.
“It could stoke fears among the Moldovan electorate of a violent conflict, and give fodder to pro-Russian parties who will accuse Chisinau of being responsible for increased prices for gas and electricity, which will be a major campaign issue” ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections in 2025, he said.
After Russia’s state energy company Gazprom announced it would halt gas flows, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean accused Moscow of using energy “as a political weapon” and said his government does not recognize the debt cited by the Russian energy giant, which he said has been “invalidated by an international audit.”
“This decision confirms once again the intention of the Kremlin to leave the inhabitants of the Transnistrian region without light and heat in the middle of the winter,” he said.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu criticized Russia on Monday for Gazprom’s decision and said that the country has gas supplies “for the heating season” and measures will be taken “to ensure uninterrupted electricity supply,” adding that plans are also in place to provide humanitarian aid to residents in Transnistria.
“The Kremlin is again using energy blackmail in an attempt to destabilize the situation, to influence the 2025 parliamentary elections and to undermine our European journey,” she said. “It is important to remain united, show solidarity, and trust in Moldova and its people.”
Olga Rosca, an adviser to Ms. Sandu,said that most of Moldova, excluding Transnistria, “shouldn’t see major disruptions” and that “cheaper electricity previously supplied from the Transnistrian region will be replaced by more expensive imports from the EU.”
“In the Transnistrian region, however, the situation will be much more serious,” she said, “and any crisis there will inevitably affect all of Moldova.”
Moldova has repeatedly claimed Russia is conducting a vast “hybrid war” by meddling in elections, funding anti-government protests and running vast disinformation campaigns to try to topple the government and derail the country’s EU aspirations.
Citing findings by British and Norwegian audit firms, Moldova claims its debt stands close to $8.6 million, a fraction of that claimed by the Russian energy giant. Gazprom said in a statement Saturday that it reserved the right to take further action, including terminating its contract with Moldovagaz.
In late 2022, months after Russia fully invaded neighboring Ukraine, Moldova suffered major power outages following Russian strikes on Ukraine, which is interconnected to the Kuciurgan plant.
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