OPINION:
In October, headlines suggested that Chinese scientists had hacked “military-grade encryption” using quantum computers, a claim that ignited serious concerns over the future of cybersecurity and national security.
The notion of an adversary possessing the power to crack high-level encryption using quantum technology stoked fears of vulnerability in everything from government communications to private sector data. Upon closer examination, however, experts deemed this breakthrough an overstatement, concluding that China has not yet unlocked an ability to cut through military-grade encryption.
Even if this specific claim was exaggerated, the potential of quantum computing’s threat underscores the importance of taking the technology seriously, especially as China vigorously pursues quantum capabilities.
Quantum computing is being heralded as a revolutionary technology that could potentially transform numerous industries. Unlike classical computers, which process information in binary code (zeros and ones), quantum computers use qubits that can exist in multiple states simultaneously, enabling them to solve complex problems exponentially faster than traditional computers.
One of the most promising applications of quantum computing lies in drug discovery and materials science. Pharmaceutical companies could simulate molecular interactions at a previously impossible level of detail, potentially leading to breakthroughs in treatments for diseases that have long eluded effective drugs.
Quantum computing could also refine our understanding of complex systems through advanced modeling, allowing scientists and engineers to develop more accurate projections. The financial sector could also benefit from quantum algorithms capable of optimizing investment portfolios and identifying profitable trading patterns with unprecedented precision.
Yet with these benefits come significant dangers. Quantum computing’s best-known threat is its potential to break encryption standards. Most modern encryption relies on complex mathematical problems that traditional computers cannot solve within a practical time frame.
But a powerful quantum computer could, in theory, solve these problems in seconds. This would nullify the encryption systems that secure the global financial system, government secrets and private communications.
Suppose quantum computers reach the point where they can break widely used encryption methods. In that case, the world could face an unprecedented cybersecurity crisis, leading to massive economic uncertainty and military risks.
In the race toward quantum dominance, companies based in the United States and other Western nations have made impressive strides. IBM, for instance, recently opened its first quantum data center in Europe, emphasizing the increasing importance of quantum infrastructure outside of research labs and in operational environments. Other tech titans such as Microsoft, Google and Amazon are investing billions of dollars in this emerging technology.
Moreover, the U.S. government’s commitment to quantum research is demonstrated through initiatives such as the DARPA US2QC program, which attempts to promote quantum breakthroughs by recruiting and financing experts from the private sector. The federal emphasis on quantum computing highlights the technology’s perceived strategic value, likening it to past investments in the space race and the internet. DARPA’s involvement, in particular, underscores the dual-use nature of quantum technology, where innovations have both commercial and military applications.
Make no mistake: China is also making significant strides in quantum technology. The recent report claiming that Chinese scientists broke encryption with quantum computing highlights the potential threats that progress poses. While the initial story turned out to be overstated — the experiment dealt with a 22-bit key, a far cry from advanced encryption — it serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities that are at stake.
Avesta Hojjati, head of research at DigiCert, commented on the story, saying, “This research, while intriguing, does not equate to an immediate quantum apocalypse.” But as Mr. Hojjati also mentioned, the experiment serves as a warning of the potential threat quantum computing poses to classical encryption.
China’s ambitions in quantum computing are clear and, perhaps more importantly, well funded. The Chinese Communist Party has poured $15 billion into various quantum computing endeavors — an amount that dwarfs public investment by the United States. It spent $10 billion building China’s National Laboratory for Quantum Information Sciences in Hefei, Anhui province. This lab, which opened in 2020 and sits on a 4 million-square-foot campus, is dedicated to achieving breakthroughs in the quantum computing field.
But China’s strategy is distinct from that of the United States and other Western countries. Unlike the collaborative, private-public approach favored by the West, China’s quantum initiatives are largely state-controlled. China funds the research and directs its strategic focus, prioritizing advancements with military and economic implications.
This tightly controlled approach allows China to integrate its quantum research with broader strategic objectives, including national defense and economic self-sufficiency. For instance, quantum technology could support secure military communications or enable new forms of intelligence gathering through quantum radar.
Furthermore, China is reshaping its education system to support its quantum ambitions. Traditional majors are being replaced with programs focusing on emerging technologies, such as quantum computing and artificial intelligence. By training a new generation of specialists in these fields, China aims to strengthen its ability to make significant strides in developing these technologies. This shift in educational priorities reflects China’s long-term commitment to dominating the industries of the future and signals a clear intent to challenge U.S. leadership in technology.
The implications of China’s ambitions are vast. Economically, quantum computing could empower China to excel in materials science, logistics optimization and financial modeling — giving it a competitive advantage in global markets. Militarily, quantum technologies can turn advanced encryption into Swiss cheese. As quantum technology continues to develop, China’s early investments may give it a disproportionate influence over international standards and norms, reshaping the global landscape in ways that could challenge Western dominance.
China may not have yet used quantum technology to hack military-grade encryption, but given the resources and effort it is pouring into quantum research, it might be just a matter of time.
• Donald Kendal (dkendal@heartland.org) is the director of the Emerging Issues Center at The Heartland Institute.
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