Ukraine faced tough questions Wednesday about the long-term viability of its war against the invading Russian army, as key Western allies warned that they are running out of ammunition to send Kyiv and European powers raced to make a deal to free up more aid and eventually put Ukraine on a path to full European Union membership.
Senior EU officials reportedly were negotiating with Hungary over the next major European aid package for Kyiv. European officials say Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an outspoken critic of military aid to Ukraine, won’t sign off on the next aid package or agree to begin an EU membership process without getting access to more than $13 billion in frozen Hungarian development aid. Those funds were reportedly frozen because of the EU’s concern that Hungary restricted the independence of its judiciary and implemented other troubling policies.
The collapse of European aid to Ukraine would be disastrous for Kyiv, but another, perhaps greater, concern is the rapid dwindling of artillery and other vital weapons that Ukraine desperately needs, Western military officials said.
Royal Netherlands Navy Adm. Rob Bauer, NATO’s top military official, said this week that the massive amount of aid delivered to Ukraine in its 19-month-old war has affected Western reserves.
“The bottom of the barrel is now visible,” he said at the Warsaw Security Forum on Tuesday. “We give away weapons systems to Ukraine, which is great, and ammunition, but not from full warehouses. We started to give away from half-full or lower warehouses in Europe.”
Questions about continued aid to Ukraine are also at the forefront of U.S. politics. Leading candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, including former President Donald Trump, are skeptical about open-ended American aid for Ukraine. Over the weekend, congressional Republicans pulled Ukraine aid from a last-minute spending bill that averted a government shutdown. They have now effectively shut down all business as they fight over a replacement for ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
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President Biden said Wednesday that he is concerned about domestic politics imperiling U.S. aid to Ukraine.
“It does worry me, but I know there are a majority of members of the House and Senate in both parties who have said that they support funding Ukraine,” Mr. Biden said after delivering a speech about his plans to cancel $9 billion in student loan debt.
The president said he was planning a major speech to explain why continued aid to war-ravaged Ukraine is critical to the U.S.
“I’m going to make the argument that it is overwhelmingly in the interests of the United States of America that Ukraine succeed,” Mr. Biden said.
Dissension in the ranks
One core concern among skeptical Republicans and others is the effect on Pentagon stockpiles. A lack of crucial ammunition could devastate the U.S. in an unexpected battle, such as a conflict with China in the Pacific.
The U.S. has sent about $44 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the start of the war in February 2022, including artillery, anti-aircraft systems and missile defense batteries. The U.S. has given many more billions of dollars in economic, humanitarian and other forms of aid.
The European Union and its member states have given Ukraine $88 billion in total aid since February 2022, the bloc said in a fact sheet released late last month. At least $27 billion goes directly to the Ukrainian military.
Pentagon officials acknowledged this week that the military would need more money from Congress to replenish U.S. arsenals, though they stressed that the nation would never be at risk of running out of ammunition.
“We’ve been very public here from the podium here saying that we’re not going to drop below certain levels,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters Tuesday. “But we do know that replenishing our stocks is a priority for this department as we continue to send and flow aid to Ukraine.”
Retired Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, who left his post as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff last week, told The Washington Times in August that the level of aid to Ukraine does not and will not endanger American national security.
“We monitor this every day for [Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin] and for the president. We give them reports every day,” Gen. Milley told The Times in an exclusive interview. “So we are not going to jeopardize our own national security needs and capabilities to engage in combat operations with ammunition stockages, etc. We’re not going to put ourselves at that level of risk.”
A fresh reason for concern has appeared as the war nears the 20-month mark. Over the summer, Mr. Biden told CNN that the U.S. is “low” on 155 mm artillery rounds, a type of ammunition critical to Ukraine’s fight with the Russians.
Combined with the virtual stalemate in Ukraine, the shrinking weapons stockpiles will fuel questions about how long the U.S. and NATO can support Kyiv without a clear plan to end the war.
EU officials traveled to Kyiv this week to offer reassurances that the aid will continue to flow. The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, told reporters in Kyiv on Monday that the bloc remains solidly behind Ukraine.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg traveled last week to Kyiv and reiterated that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO.” Ukraine is eyeing a path toward full membership in the EU and NATO, which would provide significant new security commitments and, in theory, reduce the likelihood of further aggression from Moscow.
During his visit to Kyiv, Mr. Borrell echoed that stance. He said the EU is “united” in its commitment and he does not envision any nation “folding” on its pledge to Kyiv.
Dissension in the European ranks is evident. In Slovakia’s elections over the weekend, former Prime Minister Robert Fico and his Smer party emerged as the top vote-getters, in line to head a new coalition government. Mr. Fico has said he wants to end Slovakia’s military aid to Ukraine and favors immediate peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow.
In Hungary, Mr. Orban has strongly suggested that further support for Ukraine, including putting the country on a path to EU membership, will be contingent on his nation’s access to its frozen funds.
“Brussels … is expecting us to agree to an amendment to the European Union budget that requires unanimity,” he told the Hungarian parliament last week, according to Reuters. “They are asking us … to give even more money to Ukraine.
“Brussels should give us the money that is due to Hungarians, and the state of public finances will already look brighter. … The amount owed to us would — and I am convinced will — smooth out the balance of the budget.”
• Jeff Mordock contributed to this report.
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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