Abe’s influence still felt at home and abroad a year after his death

The idea was ahead of its time and has paid geopolitical dividends in the growing U.S. cold war with China.

Saturday marks a year since former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was killed by an assassin’s bullet in an attack that shocked the nation. The anniversary also sparks reflections and a realization that Abe’s legacy will likely endure in a country that doesn’t typically offer political leaders high profiles or lasting fame.

In 2007, Abe became the first world leader to formally propose the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a loose alliance comprising the U.S., Japan, India and Australia, the region’s primary democratic powers. Sixteen years later, the Quad has become the tip of the spear in a multinational effort to confront China’s rising economic power and military expansion and protect free markets and open trade routes in East Asia.

Analysts say the Quad and Japan’s new security clout carry just as much weight domestically and have helped cement Abe’s legacy of bringing his nation to the forefront of international politics. It’s also proof, they say, that the two-time Japanese prime minister was far ahead of the curve in recognizing how formidable China’s communist regime would become in the 21st century.

“He saw the writing on the wall in regards to China,” said Brian Harding, senior expert for Southeast Asia and the Pacific islands at the U.S. Institute of Peace. “But in addition to doubling down on the U.S.-Japan alliance and making key reforms … he also really prioritized Southeast Asia and India and Australia. There’s a line to be drawn between Abe and the increasing centrality of the Quad.

“Certainly, I think you could say that Abe saw the direction China was heading before a lot of others did,” Mr. Harding said in an interview. “Maybe he was smarter. Maybe he was lucky.”

Abe’s shocking death last July marked the final chapter in a remarkable, influential political career that brought a sea change in Japan’s domestic politics and national security posture while helping resurrect Tokyo as a significant power player on the world stage.

His death sparked political controversy inside Japan. The gunman who shot Abe — the longest-serving prime minister in postwar Japanese history — said he acted out of personal grievance. He said his family’s fortunes were ruined because his mother made large monetary donations to the Unification Church, which worked with the conservative Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party, in the early 2000s. He reportedly targeted the former prime minister for appearing at Unification Church events in Japan.

Church leaders have cooperated with the investigation and said they moved to reform donation and solicitation practices more than a decade ago. The government of current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has been under pressure to do much more. Mr. Kishida reportedly apologized last August for his party’s ties with the church and ordered government investigations into the church’s ties to Japanese lawmakers.

The Unification Church’s affiliated commercial global empire comprises hundreds of ventures in more than a half-dozen countries, including hospitals, universities and newspapers, including The Washington Times.

Game-changer

Regional specialists point to Abe’s staying power in Japanese politics as a game-changer that broke a pattern of short-lived and mostly forgettable governments. After a short stint in power from 2006 to 2007, Abe became prime minister again in December 2012 and served until 2020. He followed five prime ministers, who each served only one year.

Short terms were par for the course in Japanese politics, but analysts said Abe’s eight-year reign gave the nation the stability it needed to reimagine its role in the Pacific and beyond.

“Japan was underperforming in terms of its strategic weight in the region because of the political tumult in Tokyo,” Mr. Harding said. “One of the main reasons Japanese foreign policy transformed and Japan’s strategic weight and influence transformed is because of the political stability that Prime Minister Abe oversaw.

“Japan was able to look outward in a way it couldn’t if you had [a different prime minister] every year,” he said.

Abe’s LDP has been in power for most of the past three decades, except from 2009 to 2012. Analysts say questions began to swirl in Washington about the long-term future of the U.S.-Japan alliance, particularly on security issues.

Abe changed that equation and reinvigorated the alliance. He also helped write the blueprint for a multilateral strategy to confront China.

“He was not ahead in ‘recognizing’ the ‘competition’ posed by Beijing. He was, in fact, out front in creating that competition,” said Frederick R. Dickinson, professor of Japanese history and director of the Center for East Asian Studies at the University of Pennsylvania.

The U.S.-Japan alliance deepened in subsequent years, and Abe and his party preserved close relations through the Obama and Trump administrations. Abe’s policies also helped lay the groundwork for an announcement late last year that Japan would make major investments in its security and the security of the Pacific region.

Pentagon officials welcomed the trilogy of documents — the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program — representing a major shift in Tokyo’s strategic thinking about national defense.

The documents called for powerful counterstrike capabilities and set a goal of spending at least 2% of its gross domestic product on defense by 2027.

Japan’s new defense outlook will contribute significantly to Pacific security, analysts say. Abe’s forward-thinking also has influenced the next generation of Japanese citizens to view their nation as a legitimate actor on the world stage with significant military capabilities.

Mr. Kishida has largely followed Abe’s template. Still, the late prime minister’s legacy can be measured in part by the difficulty of his faction in the Liberal Democratic Party to find a clear successor.

Members of the 100-member LDP faction that once backed Abe in the Diet recently announced that they were adopting a “group leadership” structure after failing to designate a new leader.

“Experts say cracks in the faction that were already visible before Abe’s death could deepen under the new structure, making it much less powerful than its size would indicate, and possibly result in disgruntled members breaking away,” The Japan Times reported this week.

Abe’s most lasting achievements will likely be foreign policy and Japan’s new prominence as a security player in the region and around the world.

“Unsurprisingly, this new confrontational Asia-Pacific turned out to be the most efficacious formula for Abe’s most fundamental domestic political aim,” Mr. Dickinson said. “Given the heightened geopolitical tensions, Japanese youth who’ve come of age over the last 10 to 15 years are much more likely than their parents to support Japan’s conservative establishment and a strong Japanese defense posture.”

• David R. Sands contributed to this report.