OPINION:
At a time when the West appears to be in relative decline compared to its rivals, the People’s Republic of China is proceeding with its plans for dominating the world. That is not an overstatement. A recent white paper outlining China’s next five-year plan for its country’s space development plans is proof-positive of just how far along Beijing is in its plans to dominate the strategic high ground of space (and whoever controls the strategic high ground rules the “lower” ground on Earth).
China’s rulers have conceptualized space in explicitly geopolitical and geoeconomics terms. Meanwhile, the Americans who decisively won both the Space Race and the overall Cold War to become the hegemonic power in space for decades, think about space in the impractical and airy notions of globalism.
Recently, NASA, once the world’s premier space exploration organization, announced that it was yet again pushing back its timetable to return Americans to the lunar surface. At the same time, China announced that it would have its taikonauts on the moon several years before NASA would. And the one aspect of America’s space capabilities that truly challenge China’s new space dream — private space start-up companies, like SpaceX — is being threatened constantly with onerous government regulations and political chicanery.
Sensing an advantage over their flailing American competitors, the Chinese have now pressed ahead. Following on from Ye Peijian’s stark claim that China views the “universe as an ocean and the moon as the South China Sea,” Beijing has rapidly deployed an advanced suite of space technologies meant to challenge the Yanks in the strategic high ground. In 2020, China launched its heavy-lift rocket that can place personnel and equipment in every orbit around the Earth and beyond. China then began construction in orbit of their modular space station that is meant to rival the aging International Space Station (set to be decommissioned by the end of this decade).
What’s more, China has built tiny, reusable spacecraft that many believe are for military purposes. The rising power is building advanced satellites meant to give China considerable advantages both militarily and commercially, and it has constructed a robust arsenal of anti-satellite weapons that could render American military forces or the U.S. economy deaf, dumb and blind.
The Americans, of course, should not be surprised by any of this. After all, China’s autocratic president for life, Xi Jinping, told audiences many years ago that dominating space was a vital component of his “China 2049” vision. This is Mr. Xi’s dream of ensuring that China, not the U.S., is the global hegemonic power by the hundredth-year anniversary of Mao Zedong’s creation of the People’s Republic of China — the moment that his Chinese Communist Party defeated Chiang Kai-Shek and his Chinese Nationalist forces during China’s brutal civil war.
Building off the positive momentum that China’s space program (civilian and military alike) has enjoyed, Beijing is now implementing a far more intensive program over the next half-decade. If the universe is an ocean and the moon is the South China Sea, then China will need actual capabilities to fulfill its strategic goals in that domain as much as it will need a greater naval capacity to achieve its objectives in the Indo-Pacific on Earth. The new five-year plan has a heavy focus on enhancing China’s space launch and satellite capabilities. These two things form the bedrock of a national space program. Further, greater launch and satellite capabilities mean more money flowing into Beijing’s coffers (which, in turn, will fund the next round of advancements for China) as China hopes to get other countries and companies from around the world to use its systems.
The white paper that China released outlining its five-year plan for space development explicitly called for the creation of an orbital “defense system.” Ostensibly aimed at deflecting potential life-ending asteroids that are zinging around our area of space, such a system could easily be deployed against terrestrial targets — such as sensitive installations belonging to the U.S. military or other enemies of China on Earth or even against critical satellites orbiting Earth, which Americans and their allies rely on.
And this would not be the first time that China has attempted to weaponize space through dual-use means. Recently, China stunned Western observers when its Shijian-21 satellite reached out with menacing-looking grappling arms and moved debris that was floating in geosynchronous orbit — the highest orbit around Earth and where some of America’s most sensitive military satellites operate. Observers in the West understood the implications of the Shijian-21 test. Yes, in peacetime this system could help to mitigate the threat that manmade debris in space posed to the safe operation of satellites, spaceships and even the space station alike. In wartime, however, that same system could be used to sabotage and destroy those critical American satellites orbiting nearby.
So, China is moving ahead with major advances for its space program that will fundamentally alter the balance of power on Earth. This is not your father’s space race. It is no longer simply about having the prestige of planting your country’s flag on the surface of an alien world or placing the first humans on a distant planet. Instead, this is about dominating Earth from above while capturing major new industries in space — from the launch services sector to satellites to space mining — and the Chinese are implementing a robust plan to beat the Americans in this endeavor.
As China looks to conquer the stars, America attempts to relive the worst aspects of the Cold War with Russia, this time over the future of Ukraine. Now is a critical time for the development of space and the future of humanity. Will the world fall under the sway of the terrible, technologically advanced tyranny of the Chinese Communist Party or will some semblance of freedom remain under the American-led world? Whoever controls space will be the one to answer that. Sadly, it is increasingly looking like China will be the victor in this long competition unless Washington starts making radical changes to the way it views space policy and the new space race.
• Brandon J. Weichert is the author of “Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower” (Republic Book Publishers). He manages The Weichert Report: World News Done Right and can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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