Indictment clouds Trump administration hopes for Kosovo summit

The Trump administration’s hopes for an unlikely, election year foreign policy win suffered a blow Wednesday when one of the key participants was indicted for war crimes.

A White House summit Saturday of leaders of Serbia and Kosovo — locked in one of Europe’s longest and bitterest frozen conflicts — is still on despite the fact that Kosovo President Hashim Thaci and nine other former separatist fighters were indicted on a range charges, including murder, by an international prosecutor probing the brutal war and aftermath of Kosovo’s 1998-99 independence war with Serbia.

Former Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell is leading the push that — until Wednesday’s developments — was being given a chance of making real progress on a problem than has long resisted it.

Serbian President Aleksandar Kosovo Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti are still expected in Washington on Saturday, Mr. Grenell said in a tweet Wednesday. An ally of Mr. Thaci told The Associated Press that the new indictments were “politically motivated” in an effort to torpedo the Washington meeting — the first direct talks between the two sides in 19 months.

European Union efforts to resolve the legal and territorial standoff between Serbia and its former province that declared independence in 2008 have made little progress over the past decade, all while Belgrade has resisted a deal and moved closer to Russia and China.

Mr. Grenell, who took on the Kosovo portfolio while serving until recently as U.S. ambassador to Germany, made headlines last week by announcing the two sides meet at the White House on June 27 for talks headed by U.S. rather than EU officials. Washington’s goal, he said, is to focus on economic progress and integration before tackling divisive political issues.

Mr. Grenell declined to comment for this article. However, a senior Trump administration told The Washington Times on background that this weekend’s meeting is meant to focus on getting the two sides to see eye-to-eye on regional economic integration.

“The U.S. previously negotiated three separate agreements on air, rail and motor travel to help normalize commerce in the region,” the official said. “Saturday’s discussions will build on those agreements, call for their complete implementation and facilitate discussions around several more issues of concern to the people of Kosovo and Serbia.”

Serbia has never reconciled to the loss of the mostly Muslim Kosovo, which it considers the historical cradle of Serbian civilization. The two have long engaged in brinkmanship that began with the breakup of the former Yugoslavia and continued after NATO-led bombing campaign in the 1990s that forced Serbia to relinquish control of Kosovo.

Analysts say the Trump administration has seized the diplomatic initiative from the EU, but also warn the effort could backfire.

Russia had deep economic and cultural ties to Serbia, echoing many of Belgrade’s complaints over its treatment by the EU and the West.

“I don’t expect a breakthrough, but there isn’t much of a downside for the administration in pursuing this right now,” said Dalibor Rohac, a resident scholar with the American Enterprise Institute. “The EU doesn’t like this because they don’t want to be left out, … but the reality is the EU has not achieved much in its own mediation efforts over the last decade.”

He said that Mr. Vucic, who recently won reelection, may have fresh political capital to make some concessions in the U.S. talks that are unpopular back home.

But Ivana Stradner, also a fellow at AEI, warned that while Russia is “working diligently” to “undermine Euro-Atlantic integration in the Western Balkans and reduce the appeal of democracy there,” making the U.S. mediation harder.

“Failure to approach the situation with adequate preparation could cause a boomerang effect, with Russia using international institutions to humiliate the U.S., while doubling down on its aggressive activities in the region,” Ms. Stradner said.

“Resolving the Kosovo conflict presents the U.S. with an opportunity to reduce Russian influence in the Western Balkans,” Ms. Stradner added, “but Washington needs a careful strategy.”

Still, for an administration not known for global diplomatic outreach, analysts say Mr. Grenell’s gambit may have a chance, given the current fluid state of Balkan politics.

“To dismiss Grenell’s efforts as somehow inevitably doomed would be churlish,” Damir Marusic, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, wrote in a recent analysis. “For one thing, the stakes are dizzyingly high and both sides know it.”