The political landscape is getting more competitive for President Trump in North Carolina.
Mr. Trump carried the state by a 3-point margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, but now faces 50-50 odds of beating his Democratic rival, according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, which has switched the state’s rating from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.”
They rate Mr. Trump’s chances of winning reelection this fall as a “Toss-up.”
Democrats have won North Carolina twice in the last 44 years — Jimmy Carter did it in 1976 and Barack Obama emerged victorious there in 2008. It is worth 15 electoral votes.
“Joe Biden has consistently led Donald Trump in North Carolina polling, albeit only by a few points. Trump won it by about 3.5 points in 2016, about the same as Arizona, another historically Republican presidential state we rate as a Toss-up,” says the forecast from Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman.
We think the Democrats have room to keep growing in the big metro areas, and perhaps also in the African-American vote if Democrats can generate better turnout from this group of voters,” they said. “Then again, Trump may have room to grow in outstate areas as well.”
Their running tally has Democrats winning 248 electoral college votes, and Republicans winning 233. That leaves 57 electorate votes up for grabs in Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
“While the Democrats are nominally ahead now, these ratings reflect a presidential race that we would still characterize as a Toss-up overall,” they said. “Based on our ratings, both sides are still multiple states away from an Electoral College majority.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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