NUR-SULTAN, Kazakhstan — It took nearly three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but this former Soviet republic will be taking its first baby steps toward democracy on Sunday when Kazakhstan holds its first presidential elections with more than one candidate’s name on the ballot.
The U.S., Russia and many of Kazakhstan’s Central Asian neighbors will be following the returns with unusual interest after the surprise decision by longtime President Nursultan Nazarbayev to step down, introducing a rare element of suspense into the exercise.
Although the period between the announcement of the election in March and the vote on Sunday is short, the government has spent money on registration drives, educational television programs and home visits, as well as public information campaigns, to prepare voters.
Mr. Nazarbayev, the onetime party apparatchik who has headed the Kazakh government since the breakup of the Soviet Union, had a largely unchallenged grip on power until his decision to step down three months ago.
“Until now, the political history of Kazakhstan has had one dominant figure: Nursultan Nazarbayev,” said Riccardo Pelizzo, vice dean of the graduate school for public policy at Nazarbayev University in the Kazakh capital. The university, founded in 2010, is just one of a number of institutions, landmarks and streets named for the former president.
Mr. Nazarbayev, 78, the son of a shepherd, remains the dominant figure in this country of 18.5 million people. The capital, formerly known as Astana, was renamed in his honor this year.
Mr. Pelizzo said Mr. Nazarbayev oversaw a period of growth in gross domestic product to 9% per year, a nearly sevenfold increase since the country’s founding. Mostly because of its oil reserves, Kazakhstan has the strongest economy in Central Asia, and Mr. Nazarbayev has proved adept at balancing relations with powerful neighbors China and Russia while cultivating good relations with the West.
But his tenure has been marked by allegations that include human rights abuses, suppressing political opposition, torture and limiting religious freedom. There are accusations that the president has enriched himself in office — Mr. Nazarbayev reportedly paid $3 million to have rapper Kanye West play at his grandson’s wedding — and that no matter who prevails in this weekend’s election, Mr. Nazarbayev will hold on to power behind the scenes.
“This is a slow process,” Mr. Pelizzo said. “A country that has never been democratic cannot change in the span of a few weeks.”
But, he added, “this is progress. It’s important.”
Favored successor
The outcome of the race is not in doubt. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the leader of the Senate who was appointed interim president when Mr. Nazarbayev stepped down, is the candidate for Mr. Nazarbayev’s party and the odds-on favorite to win the election.
The ruling party remains the only one with a national network in a country nearly a third the size of the United States, but officials begrudgingly allowed Amirzhan Kossanov, a vocal Nazarbayev critic, and five other candidates to join the race.
The campaign has tested the limits of tolerance and political dissent in the coming post-Nazarbayev environment.
In recent weeks, two activists were jailed for 15 days after holding a banner calling for fair elections. A video of another man, Aslan Sagutdinov, made a splash on social media when he was briefly arrested for holding a blank sign in his town of Uralsk’s central square as a way to show how little tolerance authorities have for dissenting speech of any kind.
International rights groups have been sharply critical of the election. They accuse Mr. Nazarbayev of offering the trappings of a genuine transfer of power without relinquishing the real thing.
“The prospect of a genuine transition is an illusion,” Mihra Rittmann, a Central Asia analyst for Human Rights Watch, wrote this week. “Given the short campaign period, restrictions on opposition activism and independent media, and the resources available to the leading party candidate, this election is unlikely to be different from past elections, which independent observers found to be neither free nor fair.”
Mr. Tokayev, the interim president, has pledged to continue Mr. Nazarbayev’s “strategic course.” Kazakhs say the country is on the right path, even if progress is slow, and that Mr. Nazarbayev’s legacy of repression, jailing critics, crackdown on dissent and intolerance of free expression should have no place in their country’s future.
Amina Biakhmet, 18, who will cast a ballot for the first time Sunday, said she believes in Mr. Nazarbayev’s promise.
“I think we are slowly changing the mentality of the country,” Ms. Biakhmet said. “Young people are well informed, and we all have our voice.
“History will show this as a turning point,” she said. “I am excited to think about where the country will be in 10 or 20 years.”
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